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June 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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On 6/14/2018 at 10:03 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Records for Chicago Sat-Mon...

Sat: 98/76

Sun: 96/77

Mon: 98/77

Sunday probably has the best chance at breaking any records. Saturday could have issues with convective debris, as could Monday.

I would go 93, 97, 95 for the period.

Gonna change this to 93, 95, 94.

Guidance has come in with slightly cooler UL temps the past few days.

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28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Gonna change this to 93, 95, 94.

Guidance has come in with slightly cooler UL temps the past few days.

I'd probably take 1-2 off of what I went with as well.

DVN and ILX both came in with 850 mb temps of 19-20C on tonight's soundings.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Wisconsin MCS looks like it will try to dive southeast into NE. Illinois.

Looks likely that it will have little affect on tomorrows temps, given it will be out of the area prior to 12z.

If the effective warm front sags that far south, how quickly will it shift back north?  I'm guessing pretty quickly for Chicago purposes, but I could see it taking awhile for MKE, which I'm fine with.

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5 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

If the effective warm front sags that far south, how quickly will it shift back north?  I'm guessing pretty quickly for Chicago purposes, but I could see it taking awhile for MKE, which I'm fine with.

It'll be fairly rapid, and early as well.

The backside of the MCS is already approaching I-39 and it's not even midnight yet, with no redevelopment west expected.

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24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It'll be fairly rapid, and early as well.

The backside of the MCS is already approaching I-39 and it's not even midnight yet, with no redevelopment west expected.

It is outpacing the most recent runs of the CAMs as well, which makes me wonder how far south the outflow ultimately ends up (maybe farther south than progged).  

If this were coming through 6 hours later, maybe a different story entirely as far as impacting highs.

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Yeah I'd much rather be sleeping now with these weaker storms waking me up around 3 or 4 am so we could cheat a few more hrs of lake breeze. To be honest I didn't expect much of anything tonight so wtf do I know. 

I just sorta assumed we'd be milwaukee'd and any 'exciting' stuff finds a way to meh its way to the lake at best.   Tonight's initiated pretty close to us compared to the more typical Western Wisconsin decaying  MCS in to the lake-shore.

Its gonna be smoking no doubt.. Lets just get it on if we have to tangle. Nice that it's not sticking around for too long up here.  I'm sure the heat will show its face enough this summer just plz don't over stay your welcome. We really could stand a good summer for as much of the landscape as mother nature will provide. Drought and excess heat really are the pits and there is enough ugly going down out there now. I was happy to see a nice chunk of areas cash in on some welcomed rain   #BEBESTSUMMER

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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

82/80 PNT, 82/78 TIP, 83/78 AAA last hour.

We briefly hit 89/79 around the 00z balloon launch at AAA. 

Next three days will have some pretty significant heat impacts across central Illinois. Springfield today briefly hit a 105F heat index, which was much higher than guidance. ECM and its' MOS have 97/97/95 with dews near 70. Fully believe that moisture is still a little underdone given that most corn around the area is well ahead of schedule. Looks fairly unlikely that anywhere in the region will hit 100 this heatwave, but it's still only mid June. 

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Cool little MCS.. its taking its time exiting.  Should be some nice rain totals and the light show has been frequent and close hits to make me head to the living room instead of glued to my desk in front of the windows.

It kicked up nice pre-MCS and you just knew something was brewing but it  arrived with some gusty 30/35 mph winds and once that slowly blew through the winds have behaved. Very enjoyable stuff.  Been a bit since I've had this.

She's sinking out of here to the border now.  Maybe that stuff to the west and north some can dilly dally around for another 6 hrs:sun:

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10 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

We briefly hit 89/79 around the 00z balloon launch at AAA. 

Next three days will have some pretty significant heat impacts across central Illinois. Springfield today briefly hit a 105F heat index, which was much higher than guidance. ECM and its' MOS have 97/97/95 with dews near 70. Fully believe that moisture is still a little underdone given that most corn around the area is well ahead of schedule. Looks fairly unlikely that anywhere in the region will hit 100 this heatwave, but it's still only mid June. 

You work at ILX now?

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Madison getting hit pretty good

WIC025-160815-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180616T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dane WI-
109 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL DANE COUNTY...

At 102 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the warned area. Two to four
inches of rain have already fallen across most of the Madison metro
area, with the highest amounts in the south central and southwest
parts of the metro area. Flash flooding is ongoing!

At 1258 AM CDT, a public report of lots of road flooding on side
streets, stranded cars, and accidents on the Beltline.

Please stay off of the roads in the Madison metro area if at all
possible! Rainfall rates this heavy in an urban area like Madison
will continue to cause flash flooding, especially in low lying areas
with runoff.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Madison, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Middleton, Waunakee, Verona,
McFarland, Monona, Mount Horeb, Windsor, Marshall, Cottage Grove,
Cross Plains, Deerfield, Mazomanie, Shorewood Hills, Cambridge, Black
Earth, Maple Bluff and Blue Mounds.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in one
hour in the warned area, which covers the Madison metro area.
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I have my eye to west central wisco before bed to see if anything can maybe sustain a trip to the  SE and add in a little  early AM distraction  to HHH.  I wouldn't mind  a cooler first half of the day to get some chores and running around done in the AM before the flip.

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Rain don't want to give up imby but nothing crazy in the qpf department, id say it has to be over an inch - maybe 2 when all said and done?

Madison sounds legit in areas.

AT 126 AM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN AND   AROUND THE MADISON METRO AREA. NUMEROUS VEHICLES ARE STRANDED. WATER   IS ENTERING THE LOWER LEVELS OF HOUSES AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS. THE   FIRE DEPARTMENT IS PERFORMING WATER RESCUES.    

TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE MADISON   METRO AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND   SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE!  

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The HRRR is trying to bring a secondary outflow boundary through in the morning.

Low confidence

That and the possibility for afternoon pop-up storms are two concerns that may prevent max heating potential.

Sun and Mon have no real concerns and should be fine still.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Actually, that lake enhanced OFB is currently rapidly pushing inland across NE. Illinois.

Definitely a big concern regarding temps today now.

6404E6D9-C6BC-456A-BF4C-A517A22AB5B3.jpeg

Yeah, fly in the ointment.

It looks less well defined south of the city.  Actually it still looks like it's just offshore once you get into Indiana. Not by much though per the obs at offshore sites.

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Kind of an unfortunate situation for LOT. After getting through the overnight storms, today was well on the way to being day 1 of realizing the special heat warning criteria (3 days with heat index of 100-105) for Cook county (specifically Chicago) until the second boundary made an appearance.  This should be enough to prevent today from being able to realize 100+ heat indices there. But with the warning already having been issued and considering what Sun/Mon looking like, you can't really pull the plug at this point from a public messaging standpoint.

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Watching from afar, the real interesting one as far as thee heat will be Minneapolis.

NWS grids still show highs in the low/mid 90s, yet as we enter peak heating, light rain showers / drizzle continue with temps in the low 70s.

I've seen impressive temp recoveries, but one like that would be beyond amazing.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ORD peaked at 89 prior to the lake enhanced OFB moving trough. It’s down to 81 now.

looks like any chance of 90 is DOA now.

Back up to 84.  Start the rally.  :guitar:

Tricky to say just how much of a recovery there will be.  My gut feeling would side with your thoughts, but models aren't handling the progression of the boundary very well.  The ones that have a boundary didn't bring it through ORD until later afternoon, which would have obviously been more detrimental to post frontal temperature recovery.   

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