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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Imminent icestorm back on the table 

lol theres not a lot of qpf modeled despite the impressive low lvl cold air until past 6z sun night and temps are moderating at that point. Verbatim, prob a lot of freezing drizzle or maybe even sleet depending where you are during the day Sunday. 

super impressive low lvl dp feed from Maine tho .. dps in the 0s and 10s. Can't wait for the weenie NAM ARW or plymouth WRF runs that overdo the magnitude of the low lvl cold feed - those will be entertaining. 

Also I would assume that record low maxes are in jeopardy for Sunday? 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

lol theres not a lot of qpf modeled despite the impressive low lvl cold air until past 6z sun night and temps are moderating at that point. Verbatim, prob a lot of freezing drizzle or maybe even sleet depending where you are during the day Sunday. 

super impressive low lvl dp feed from Maine tho .. dps in the 0s and 10s. Can't wait for the weenie NAM ARW or plymouth WRF runs that overdo the magnitude of the low lvl cold feed - those will be entertaining. 

Also I would assume that record low maxes are in jeopardy for Sunday? 

 

Record low max at ORH for 4/15 is pretty vulnerable actually...39F. That could get destroyed.

If the 32F line can get south soon enough on late 4/14, then ORH could break a new record for latest 32F or colder high temp for 4/15.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I wonder if standard deviations are calculated that are relative to patterns ? 

Because this is unusual what's being set up over the weekend... I would not call the overall setting unusual, but, the magnitude of low-level cold air, is.   "This type of set up" is taking typical misery of April and dancing on the backs of the bruised. 

That configuration in its self is not that unusual for April ...May into early June for that matter.  In fact, just about every single warm boundary that is ever connected to any kind of lower pressure in the Lakes, at this time of year, is perhaps planetary wave-driven to slump backward over us .. once a given low gains about ORD in latitude.  Sometimes, such as this, they are coming in with bona fide back built +PP. 

I don't even think the magnitude of the high is historic - although it is impressive enough, with some pretty steep rises almost immediately behind the boundary as it first come more like a N-door front for us and then pivots into a BD for NYC S... But the air mass behind it is like so many others this perplexing spring, colder than a witch's tit from an apparent bottomless well of a supply.   

I just think it is interesting that the cold and the set up are kind of mutually exclusive because we can have either .. but this way is doing it at the same time, and ... has a seasonal trend perhaps footing the magnitude of the anomaly. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if standard deviations are calculated that are relative to patterns ? 

Because this is unusual what's being set up over the weekend... I would not call the overall setting unusual, but, the magnitude of low-level cold air, is.   "This type of set up" is unusually cold. 

That configuration in its self is not that unusual for April ...May into early June for that matter.  In fact, just about every single warm boundary that is ever connected to any kind of lower pressure in the Lakes, at this time of year, is perhaps planetary wave-driven to slump backward over us .. once a given low gains about ORD in latitude.  Sometimes, such as this, they are coming in with bona fide back built +PP. 

I don't even think the magnitude of the high is historic - although it is impressive enough, with some pretty steep rises almost immediately behind the boundary as it first come more like a N-door front for us and then pivots into a BD for NYC S... But the air mass behind it is like so many others this perplexing spring, colder than a witch's tit from an apparent bottomless well of a supply.   

I just think it is interesting that the cold and the set up are kind mutually exclusive because we can have either .. but this way is doing it at the same time, and ... has a seasonal trend perhaps footing the magnitude of the anomaly. 

Unfortunately I don't have one for the surface at my fingertips, but there are very high probabilities at 850mb for a 3 sigma temp anomaly. As we know, 3 sigma is no joke. I assume at the surface, you'd see something fairly similar except the southern extent displaced even further south given the undercutting nature of the airmass.

 

 

Apr12_GEFS850Tempanomaly.gif

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Unfortunately I don't have one for the surface at my fingertips, but there are very high probabilities at 850mb for a 3 sigma temp anomaly. As we know, 3 sigma is no joke. I assume at the surface, you'd see something fairly similar except the southern extent displaced even further south given the undercutting nature of the airmass.

 

 

 

yeah the other aspect ...sort of hinted at by that product you provided .. .that comin' 'round the mountain source at llvs is typically how we get the best 'bite' to the air down our way.  Walt Drag used to mention this in his AFDs back in the day... but mainly a winter time effect, where the source turns due N and drains with no contamination by the Great Lakes and we syrup - 

Granted, we are not talking -10 F anything here duh.. however, it's almost a perfect set up to maximize NOT being able to modify this surface drain...  Sort of has the ear mark of a situation where one might consider tossing convention at the hands of a pretty unique set up ... But, it's a less than totally significant impactor - more for trophy hoisting.  Save for the off-chance that there's some sort of appreciable icing ... it'll probably be forgotten as just yet another typically spring assault on a weekend in New England.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah the other aspect ...sort of hinted at by that product you provided .. .that comin' 'round the mountain source at llvs is typically how we get the best 'bite' to the air down our way.  Walt Drag used to mention this in his AFDs back in the day... but mainly a winter time effect, where the source turns due N and drains with no contamination by the Great Lakes and we syrup - 

Granted, we are not talking -10 F anything here duh.. however, it's almost a perfect set up to maximize NOT being able to modify this surface drain...  Sort of has the ear mark of a situation where one might consider tossing convention at the hands of a pretty unique set up ... But, it's a less than totally significant impactor - more for trophy hoisting.  Save for the off-chance that there's some sort of appreciable icing ... it'll probably be forgotten as just yet another typically spring assault on a weekend in New England.  

Yeah agreed on all points...there's a chance it could be pretty memorable IF we get any sort of glaze for more than 12 hours. But even if temps are cold enough (still questionable down in SNE), QPF may be lacking anyway.

Most people are not going to parse the difference between a 33F misery mist day and a 42F drizzle day....both are awful and dumped into the same bin of lost spring days by the general public. Only those of us nut jobs tracking record low maxes really care about that difference.

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

To my untrained weather eye this Euro run is such a "wow" up here.  Over .50" ice then even sleet to snow.  Temps falling into the low 20's Saturday night.  Seems like its way overdone for a 4/14 date.  Could a crippling ice storm happen in mid April?  I guess if it happens overnight?  

Wow is right. Supposed to be skiing Waterville this weekend. Would be incredible to get another pow pow day. Those surface temps are cold! Imagine 20's for us meanwhile Kevin is grilling in his mankini.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

My goodness...  HFD and ORH are pushing -9 and -8 on the month nearing the ides, respectively... 

That's tough to do man - getting -5 by middle of any month is impressive enough... but that means your really packing some cold mass into those numbers.  Of course, nothing will be Feb 2015 probably ...still, in terms of "spring futility," this is right up there.  

Still say May '05 is worse... if for the only reason that expectations for April are bleak anyway.   

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My goodness...  HFD and ORH are pushing -9 and -8 on the month nearing the ides, respectively... 

That's tough to do man - getting -5 by middle of any month is impressive enough... but that means your really packing some cold mass into those numbers.  Of course, nothing will be Feb 2015 probably ...still, in terms of "spring futility," this is right up there.  

Still say May '05 is worse... if for the only reason that expectations for April are bleak anyway.   

May '05 was really bad...2nd coldest May at ORH airport...only the infamous May 1967 has it beat...which had the special distinction of having not 1, but 2 snow events including the Friday of Memorial Day weekend. 2005 only had 11 days out of 31 with no precip.

 

As for this April, we'll have to see where we stand by 4/16....through 4/11, 2018 was definitely cold, but still trailing years even recently like 2007, 2016, and 2003....but those years saw the dam break pretty quickly...2003, the coldest year in the set to date turned right around now. We clearly aren't going to do that this year. 2007 saw a spectacular flip I recall....we had multiple snow/slush events and then the long duration Patriots Day Nor' Easter...but once that storm departed, it was full-on spring. Plenty of 70s and even a few 80s the final 10-12 days of the month. It wasn't enough to erase the cold departures for the first 15-20 days, but it was a strong sensible wx flip.

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I remember a post from Kevin around this time last week or over the weekend ... celebrating the 80s for this weekend...

Not a knock on him because.. .heh, the Euro flashed that for more than a couple of runs back in the day.  It's amazing how often we polarize signals vs verification at this time of year.  It's like more than just a signal breaking down too - it's almost like there's a relationship between the pattern causing the warmth, and the pattern of warmth self destructing into this sort of craziness of going precisely opposite. And it happens more frequent in spring ... It's almost like there is a standing reserved 25 % chance that whatever the signal is, the opposite will happen.

And looking at this NAM run?  when in the f are the winter storm watches for significant ice accretion going up... heh

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Creepy good call.

Yeah once Kevin latched onto the BDF idea, he nailed it I think....still needs to verify, but that Saturday morning call looks pretty good for 5 days out....might nail it to within a few hours.

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