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wncsnow

March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Sittinf at 31/25 here in Danville... The clouds got here a lot quicker than I thought. 

Yea man. It was almost perfect and ideal setups. Clear skies most of the night and then clouds rolled in as soon as the sun started coming up. They’re thick outside now. I’m at 30/23 presently. 

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Just as a word of caution, latest HRRR is almost 7-8 degrees too warm at initialization up in SW VA. Models seem to bust badly with temp outputs.

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FWIW-Dt about an hour ago!
28953703_1646792905367961_50274711195781410_o.jpg?_nc_cat=0%26oh=91255de9f0e75c7b81ce6fe473d67ed1%26oe=5B298747&key=45076b0d50704ce790f9432209ee36c3ed0c7ea5fd00c717f43050b8e1c75154Start times 
  19250786_1646792952034623_373674298193553032_o.jpg?_nc_cat=0%26oh=b4495f5de1c0c72899b9639bad15aef6%26oe=5B44E459&key=4a7b513b013a55bea2423699741694f057462e951f077139145c6d5f5e85c63a


DT is terrible, especially south of VA. Start time of 4pm?! Lmao it started at 6AM and already have half an inch in Boone. He’s pathetic.


.
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1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said:

 


DT is terrible, especially south of VA. Start time of 4pm?! Lmao it started at 6AM and already have half an inch in Boone. He’s pathetic.


.

 

I think you are the jackpot on this one man! 

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Regardless of P-type, you'd think accumulations will be a struggle with the fiery late March sun angle combined with near to above freezing surface temperatures and warm soil temperatures until we get towards evening.  I'll hug Alan's map, though.

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone know the difference between the HRRR and HRRRX? Guessing it’s the newer higher resolution model? 

I believe x stands for experimental.

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From what I recall, the HRRR typically runs way too warm, and also tends to overamp things in the longer range (which for it is outside of the first few hours).  Just something to keep in mind, unless that's been improved on in the last couple years.

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

That’s also why I said the other day don’t trust the Nam in its entirety. It’s been so jumpy at least the second half of winter with qpf maximums when a winter storm is basically upon us. It also sucked a** last night with thermals and expected lows. Was off several degrees. I’ll cheer to you later with a beer in my hand watching it pour down ;) 

:lol:  With this cold, think whiskey is going to be the choice later!  Nam has been very jumpy.   HRRR does look wet and I will take it.  It would not take much of a shift to go from .75 to 1.5 or opposite.  Glad we got the thick clouds in here too!
 

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