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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know we all speak from an IMBY perspective but I'd say today was a step forward for the urban crew. All guidance has trended better/colder with the lead wave. I pretty much had that written off expecting zero chance for the WAA piece to work in my yard. Even though the euro last night was good I know my yard/climo and I also know that this is right at the lead time where I usually lose that battle. Not today though. Euro was a straight miss south (which is fine) but also a great column for snow had the heavy precip made it here. GFS/CMC/ICON all improved with the the lead wave and snow chances close to and into the cities.  

I do agree that the signal for a consolidated/stalled/closed off bomb backed off but that's mostly a function of shortwave #2. Still pretty far out there to get hung up one way or the other. If I can pull off any *reasonable* amount of snowfall with wave 1 then I'm pretty damn happy. So with that perspective, today was pretty good. 

Yea if I was near 95 I would probably see this different. And I won't complain if this ends up a 3-5" thump from wave 1 then a non event wave 2. But right now a big ticket item is still possible so I'm interested in rooting for that. And I would give up 3" from wave 1 to get it. I know that probably sounds crazy but keep in mind I did see snow up here this year. Plenty of 1-3" events and a 5" event. Way below climo but still.  What I haven't seen is a big event.  So I'm kind of disinterested with wave 1 because that's not the upside potential I'm focused on wave 2 and as you said that took a step back. I'm ok either way but I'd rather root for the big event since this year sucked anyways. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Wiggum ninjad be with that h5 plot. Saw that and was like "yea that's what im talking about". There must be some great members in the gefs. Maybe the op was a disorganized outlier.  Ensembles still matter at this range. 
I have a suspicion the Euro hiccuped. I too have feared suppression like you but something is odd about the euro. That model never jumps like that ... it almost always makes small adjustments. It is either leading the pack or out to lunch. I have a suspicion it is the latter. I do, however, think the GEFS may be too far North. I could easily see a blend between the EPS and GEFS which sounds like the easy way out and one which still makes many of us happy, but that sort of blend/compromise this season has been a decent solution with most of our events/non-events.
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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

Posted
Posted

I like where I sit in Augusta County wrt the models runs today.  Some globals north, some south.  H5 levels look good, but appear far from settled.  Ensembles still look good for these leads as well.  I truly expected this threat to evaporate (or trend too far north) as we moved closer, but it hasn't.  Hoping to top last week's 6" for mby and salvage this winter like many on the board.  Just having a storm to track in the latter half of March is a blessing.  Let's bring this one home!!

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea if I was near 95 I would probably see this different. And I won't complain if this ends up a 3-5" thump from wave 1 then a non event wave 2. But right now a big ticket item is still possible so I'm interested in rooting for that. And I would give up 3" from wave 1 to get it. I know that probably sounds crazy but keep in mind I did see snow up here this year. Plenty of 1-3" events and a 5" event. Way below climo but still.  What I haven't seen is a big event.  So I'm kind of disinterested with wave 1 because that's not the upside potential I'm focused on wave 2 and as you said that took a step back. I'm ok either way but I'd rather root for the big event since this year sucked anyways. 

I mean don't get me wrong...I would LOVE a lambasting. But let's not just skip over the fact that we're discussing legit mid-range potential in the THIRD week of March. I will absolutely not be picky and be disappointed in ANY accum snow that covers the top of my grass. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ji said:
42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Overall I don't think today was a step back but I wanted a step forward. It was probably asking too much but the 12z suite started off good and I wanted the euro to look like the euro had looked. Then see the gfs trend closer to that. Instead thinks kind of continued spraying half decent solutions around. No move towards locking in a big ticket event. So I'm disappointed we didn't take a step forward today. 

I lost 27 inches

Hug the gefs 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Wiggum ninjad be with that h5 plot. Saw that and was like "yea that's what im talking about". There must be some great members in the gefs. Maybe the op was a disorganized outlier.  Ensembles still matter at this range. 

I have a suspicion the Euro hiccuped. I too have feared suppression like you but something is odd about the euro. That model never jumps like that ... it almost always makes small adjustments. It is either leading the pack or out to lunch. I have a suspicion it is the latter. I do, however, think the GEFS may be too far North. I could easily see a blend between the EPS and GEFS which sounds like the easy way out and one which still makes many of us happy, but that sort of blend/compromise this season has been a decent solution with most of our events/non-events.

I was looking at the h5 a bit ago from the last fail and this and even on the euro there is enough space to get this to work. Yea I see the vort pressing down but the bigger issue is it doesn't come together and everything swings out. There seems to be enough room this time. Last time it was obvious the spacing was too right and suppressed. 

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn folks, 18z gefs is sweet AF. That's the only analysis necessary. 

Seconded, that was the look I was waiting for today. Now I want to see more of it across guidance next couple cycles. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn folks, 18z gefs is sweet AF. That's the only analysis necessary. 

it is.  basically qpf maxes over our region.  looking at the gefs closer there's a little piece of energy diving in on the backside of that 2nd or main wave and i think that's what causes the phase basically right over us.  the gefs paints a really nice outcome.  gfs showed a similar NS piece wrapping in behind it as well.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I mean don't get me wrong...I would LOVE a lambasting. But let's not just skip over the fact that we're discussing legit mid-range potential in the THIRD week of March. I will absolutely not be picky and be disappointed in ANY accum snow that covers the top of my grass. 

Your right. I needed a reality check. Thanks. Back on track. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Interstate said:

That is pretty nice... e14 and e19 makes me cringe... that is basically what we have had all winter.

They're still big precip hits though... From a QPF standpoint there is only 1 camp with the gefs and 1 outlier. Heck, even the outlier only freaks out PSU. My yard is MONEY

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

All complaining aside because Delaware hardly gets any hits.. overall NCEP GEFS looks pretty good imo. Wouldn't be surprised if i still manage to get 6'' out of this according to the control.

Also remember, ensembles tend to move towards the control.

Dude, this may be your worst post yet and you already have a pretty good resume on file. 

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The heck with Chill and PSU..they are good but we need the heavy artillery...we need Kocin.  The original winter gangster. He would know what’s up.  

No he wouldn't .. Paul would give 25 reasons why this or that or the other might happen, as we often hear from our experts.

When I looked at the Euro that many were salivating over this morning, I laughed and threw it in the trash immediately. I knew that it would cave with the 12z run. It did. 

We have a juicy system threatening us late Monday into Wednesday. I would guess that the climo favored areas may receive 4 - 8 inches of snow. The farther east lowlands will probably be disappointed.

But, rarely a system will bomb, pull cold air to the surface and laugh in the face of climo. Will this happen next Tuesday??

We will know a week from today. 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormy said:

No he wouldn't .. Paul would give 25 reasons why this or that or the other might happen, as we often hear from our experts.

When I looked at the Euro that many were salivating over this morning, I laughed and threw it in the trash immediately. I knew that it would cave with the 12z run. It did. 

We have a juicy system threatening us late Monday into Wednesday. I would guess that the climo favored areas may receive 4 - 8 inches of snow. The farther east lowlands will probably be disappointed.

But, rarely a system will bomb, pull cold air to the surface and laugh in the face of climo. Will this happen next Tuesday??

We will know a week from today. 

How about that drought thread?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, stormy said:

No he wouldn't .. Paul would give 25 reasons why this or that or the other might happen, as we often hear from our experts.

When I looked at the Euro that many were salivating over this morning, I laughed and threw it in the trash immediately. I knew that it would cave with the 12z run. It did. 

We have a juicy system threatening us late Monday into Wednesday. I would guess that the climo favored areas may receive 4 - 8 inches of snow. The farther east lowlands will probably be disappointed.

But, rarely a system will bomb, pull cold air to the surface and laugh in the face of climo. Will this happen next Tuesday??

We will know a week from today. 

Crazy I have the same reaction to your posts. 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

They're still big precip hits though... From a QPF standpoint there is only 1 camp with the gefs and 1 outlier. Heck, even the outlier only freaks out PSU. My yard is MONEY

Yeah. the last time I saw a GEFS run like that was for the 2016 Blizzard. Not being skunked on a single member is a pretty good sign.

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WeathermanB

WeathermanB

Posted
Posted

Now, what usually happens in mid March, when you have a juiced up snow bomb on the tables for 5 days out on the models, by the time the storm verifies (if it does), mainly people near the coast like me have to deal with p-type. That is a big issue, especially with the sun angle.

But there are times that if you get just the right conditions, you've set yourself up with a potential big snowstorm even near the immediate coastline. It has happened before. Timing is important. If you had a storm happening in the daytime, there is a high probability the precip will just be rain. Precip rates affect this. We need heavy precip rates to bring down the temperatures, especially if the wet bulb is below freezing, the evaporative cooling would cause a changeover to snow, SN+.

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