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March 12th-13th ULL Discussion

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29 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z GFS shifted slightly southward. Snow accumulations over most of central NC northward into VA. Best accumulations from the NC/VA boarder up through central VA. 

 

A12760F2-4F62-41D3-A071-E73EE7305DF2.png

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Whoever wrote the afternoon GSP disco was quite the buzzkill. Ugh! Nada (except some token wet flakes) outside the mountains, and a sloppy 3-4 inches in the mountains. (From the tone of it, I think they enjoyed squashing our dreams too.)

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Whoever wrote the afternoon GSP disco was quite the buzzkill. Ugh! Nada (except some token wet flakes) outside the mountains, and a sloppy 3-4 inches in the mountains. (From the tone of it, I think they enjoyed squashing our dreams too.)

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
 

And they probably be right!! :(

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1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

Whoever wrote the afternoon GSP disco was quite the buzzkill. Ugh! Nada (except some token wet flakes) outside the mountains, and a sloppy 3-4 inches in the mountains. (From the tone of it, I think they enjoyed squashing our dreams too.)

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
 

Could be the same person that said we would get a dusting to a inch on December 8th.  Well we had a foot of snow the next day.  Sooooooooo, here we go!

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They've added 'stuff' to our local forecast here in Clayton.

Monday Night
A chance of rain, snow, and sleet, mainly before 7pm.

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Could be the same person that said we would get a dusting to a inch on December 8th.  Well we had a foot of snow the next day.  Sooooooooo, here we go!

Yep. They got the proverbial egg in face on that one. We all know the climo caveats that apply to this mid March last gasp and everyone has there expectations in check. This will be a nice winter storm in the northern mtns, no doubt. Espeacilly up top.

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14 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Looks like most of NC gets in on the snow too 

There's no way that much of NC gets snow out of this storm especially SE of RDU. The 3K NAM has done a good job this winter but I think it's off it's rocker tonight. There's just not enough cold air available for it to work with.

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1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said:

There's no way that much of NC gets snow out of this storm especially SE of RDU. The 3K NAM has done a good job this winter but I think it's off it's rocker tonight. There's just not enough cold air available for it to work with.

Could this overperform?  

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Well it gone to a day time event now Monday, So the GFS turns what snow I may get back over to rain once the down-sloping begins!! That's why it's shows that hole in the foothills.... NO accumulations for the foothills!!! Needed a night time event. 

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3 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Could this overperform?  

Let's hope so!:)You should be fine where your at. My area is going to have a hard time with 2m temps. Maybe rates will overcome.

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3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Well it gone to a day time event now Monday, So the GFS turns what snow I may get back over to rain once the down-sloping begins!! That's why it's shows that hole in the foothills.... NO accumulations for the foothills!!! Needed a night time event. 

Come on Frosty. You always end up shoveling snow.;)

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1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said:

Come on Frosty. You always end up shoveling snow.;)

Well I hope you are right, I was stating what I think the model is showing, It's had that minimum in the foothills for many runs, is it right is the question!!! 

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All signs point in relative terms to a pretty major event for southern and central VA late tomorrow evening and a good part of the day on Monday. I am really hoping this one overperforms for us here and also gets some others in the action. This storm is one of those that we haven’t seen in some time, whereas dynamics and multiple players on the board are wreaking havoc with being able to iron out a definitive solution. There has been a ton of lightning with the LP around Arkansas. Just goes to show you the dynamics that are in play. Talk to everyone soon! 

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27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

All signs point in relative terms to a pretty major event for southern and central VA late tomorrow evening and a good part of the day on Monday. I am really hoping this one overperforms for us here and also gets some others in the action. This storm is one of those that we haven’t seen in some time, whereas dynamics and multiple players on the board are wreaking havoc with being able to iron out a definitive solution. There has been a ton of lightning with the LP around Arkansas. Just goes to show you the dynamics that are in play. Talk to everyone soon! 

I think it's going to be a lot of rain and snow not sticking.  We'll see. 

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4 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

00z GFS
 

For Virginia it reminds me of the late March 2013 storm. I was in Roanoke and it rained hard for a day followed by several inches of very slushy snow. It snowed all across the state to about Williamsburg.

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well very disappointed this morning, hoping I would wake up to at least a winter weather advisory but it looks like it doesn't have enough cold air, was hoping for a miracle during the night, at least I was hoping it would generate it's own cold air or something.  Oh well, it was a good try, come on spring I reckon.  

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I just noticed Buncombe County is in the wwa buuuuutttt for 3500 feet and above, I'm at 2100 feet, maybe I'll see a few flakes tomorrow if it breaks containment of which GSP says they'll be watching the models closely today to see if they need to expand the wwa to other areas.  GSP really admits they don't know what this is going to do there is so much going on,  even the time change they say doesn't help.  We'll see later on I guess.

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5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I think it's going to be a lot of rain and snow not sticking.  We'll see. 

I think this is one of those that really overperforms up my way. Going to be a nice deformation band swinging through. That will trump borderline temps and will accumulate for sure. Best part is this is one of those storms where everything will melt quickly post storm. I’m thinking higher end for ROA/BBurg area 5-8 or even 6-10 if the fatties are ripping. 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I think this is one of those that really overperforms up my way. Going to be a nice deformation band swinging through. That will trump borderline temps and will accumulate for sure. Best part is this is one of those storms where everything will melt quickly post storm. I’m thinking higher end for ROA/BBurg area 5-8 or even 6-10 if the fatties are ripping. 

Yep I'll also hope the deformation band swings thru Asheville, of which at one time there was talk the deformation band was going to swing thru the Asheville area that would help with a little more snow for the area.

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RAH  NWS does a great job explaining in their morning discussion.    Says the best chance for us is afternoon/evening as the secondary low pops and cold air moves in.  They mention cooling due to melting and other thermodynamic processes which could cause the temperature to briefly hit 32 and cause minor accumulations, but nothing too serious.  Also threat of black ice overnight though winds and drying after precip could mitigate that.  

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One unique aspect of this storm is that many trees have budded or have blossoms and will be able to hold more snow.  If heavy enough, there could be some power issues. 

TW

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

even the time change they say doesn't help.  We'll see later on I guess.

How does time change ever effect weather? Lol

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

I think this is one of those that really overperforms up my way. Going to be a nice deformation band swinging through. That will trump borderline temps and will accumulate for sure. Best part is this is one of those storms where everything will melt quickly post storm. I’m thinking higher end for ROA/BBurg area 5-8 or even 6-10 if the fatties are ripping. 

I think you going to get a nice dumping up there, Should be a beautiful paste bomb!! Good luck, and post some pics!! 

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