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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I agree it looks a bit better. 

I look at the ICON for giggles because it's there now, caveat that I think it is a horrible model. But look how much different the 12z run initializes the northern stream in Canada vs the 12z NAM. None of the models have a clue what is actually up there.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Reggie isn’t worth using whether it’s good or bad 

I still like it. It hasn't been great this winter but it's been misused quite a bit on here too ever since the clown range was discovered...people need to understand that the model is about the same as the NAM beyond 36 hours...so I see a lot of unnecessary handwringing over a reggie forecast at 48 or 54 hours changing. 

It performed really well in the firehose storm actually. The thermals did very well which is the strong point. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The 12z NAM ...from my eyes, looks as though the westward extent of the cyclone's influence is 1 to perhaps 2 degrees more "bulged" in that westward direction. 

I cannot tell if that is really because the storm is modeled closer to the coast or not, as the surface reflect keeps being repositioned every 3 to 6 hours as though it were dancing around inside the cage of a general, deep cyclonic inner region. That, and the fact that it is so large.. that internal variances become less influential this far from the center (perhaps)

However, the 500 mb vorticity product associated with this run looks too close to the 00z evolution, interval comparative..., to assess whether this is all structurally a tick west, or if said 'bulging' is model noise, too. Either way, QPF and perhaps wind are impressive E/SE

I think the "held serve" impression is probably the best take away - if my insight offers any support or distraction aside :) 

I'm almost willing to speculate that we could see a NW correction over the next two cycles then now cast shows a track ~ 50 mi E of the BM... Just looking at the 500 mb evolution it seems the models are convectively inducing height falls S of NS that may be overzealous; even having small doses and amounts of that, thus causing this storm's md-level support to try and shear away in that direction, and away from the captive influence of that deep N/stream closure over the PA/NY boarder late tomorrow... This is how I'm leaning now - but reserve the right to not to be blamed as though this statement is actually instructive on why the storm doesn't do x-y-z for whomever cares...  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually just a warm side of that IIRC. But as you said, probably want H7-H5 avg fronto to really nail those bands down. 

As long as things aren’t completely stacked, everything should slope towards the cold side. So the f-gen forces the lift, which will be just on the cold side of the front.

But some of the surface charts looked a little inverted trough-like. There could be some more energy left to play into this.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

As long as things aren’t completely stacked, everything should slope towards the cold side. So the f-gen forces the lift, which will be just on the cold side of the front.

But some of the surface charts looked a little inverted trough-like. There could be some more energy left to play into this.

Right. Want to see how that continues (usually sloped) as it ascends.  What would really be awesome, is if TT had H7-H5 avg frontogenesis.  Sometimes 700 does not cut it.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right. Want to see how that continues (usually sloped) as it ascends.  What would really be awesome, is if TT had H7-H5 avg frontogenesis.  Sometimes 700 does not cut it.

I wish more model sites had it period. At least CoD has 850 f-gen.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So I'm head scratching a bit at why this isn't more proficiently phasing.  The above explanation ... re the convective sequencing possibly lowering height S of NS too prodigiously ...  however more like science fiction it may ultimately prove to be ... is the best explanation I can see (for now, always open to other's ideas..). The idea there is that it is 'drawing' the mid level support up that way ...effectively shearing the system apart just as the N/stream is about to  capture.  It may happen that - ..okay 

The ridge in the west is quintessentially placed, related to ... the nosing N/stream's dive is spot on the correct tact... while the S/stream impulse is nearly or at perfection for cylconic orientation/motion relative to  - ...yet, the models just keep spitting the low out E of in mid to late innings.  fascinating... 

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