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bess

Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

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1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

The spinx on pleasantburg has non ethanol. 

Thanks! I typically go to Spinx at the corner of Laurens/E Washington for non-ethanol gas (closest to me, expensive!) - however, I will be at the Duncan/Spartanburg YMCA for a swim meet all day - looks like the 3K NAM is predicting 0.2 inch of ice for city of Greenville (thanks BA13 above!) - don't *think* that will be a problem

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Finally on my laptop here. This is in reference to what I had been mentioning. Note this is 3K NAM at hr 26. Very stout and pronounced damming occurring.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

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I've talked myself in to thinking this is going to be a big deal for the GSP area. I'm thinking widespread 1/4 inch acretions. I'm guessing temps bottom out around 29/30 from 5am to 8am then rise to 32/33 by lunch as the last band of precip pulls through.

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It's going to take latent heat release to get the upstate above freezing, because it appears we will keep the northeasterly flow throughout the duration of the event.  With the lack of surface southerly flow punching through, it will just be a matter of where temps bottom out: 31/32, not much to see... 29/30... we're talking warning level ice.

You can see here, even at 10am. The winds are ripping down the backside of the mountains in to the upstate.

wind27.gif

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27/8 @ 10:15. Think forecasted to hit 41 today. Should stay clear and radiate fast the first several hours tonight. Gonna be in situ from the get go so it really boils down to A) how long you can hold off clouds tonight and B-getting precip to breakout right before dawn.

I'm runing behind for the season on 33 degree rain events, seriously.

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RGEM continues its rock stead performance at 12z. Looks just as cold as the 3K NAM. Both hi-res models really locking in here. RGEM is actually a little colder to start up my way and gives me a couple hours of snow. I know Snowgoose has mentioned lately the RGEM has been very solid this year.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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RGEM has def been the most bullish.  Going to the end of the HRRR and comparing to the RGEM and they are VERY similar.  Precip may be coming in just a little sooner on the HRRR. Temp profiles very similar.  RGEM still a little cooler for most, especially some of the western areas this last run.  But all in All they line up well and as others have said it only takes one or two degrees 

223CDB18-6A5F-4381-8ADE-3FA56204E501.jpeg

D85DFA3B-E194-4901-B910-D147DD983E62.jpeg

7B4E9CD2-9D71-4DB7-9FF0-F9AB55CE1F17.jpeg

2E1EBFD2-36AD-49C6-9964-DA6B2BCA265D.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

RGEM continues its rock stead performance at 12z. Looks just as cold as the 3K NAM. Both hi-res models really locking in here. RGEM is actually a little colder to start up my way and gives me a couple hours of snow. I know Snowgoose has mentioned lately the RGEM has been very solid this year.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

Stout wedge down into the upstate with heavy precip. Latent heat release from precip like that should get us above the freezing mark. Shouldn't it? We shall see

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I've seen it pour rain at 32 and have devastating tree damage

If we can keep the heaviest stuff just south of the wedge, this could be a tree trunk snapper no doubt, but it looks like precip is going to explode right over the top of us at some point. Fun to track, regardless. Still a few more model runs before game time 

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We had some discussion on this yesterday regarding how liquid amounts convert to ice accretion on exposed surfaces.  Of course, it depends on a lot of factors, but here are a few quick examples I pulled.  Bottom line, it's not a 1 to 1 deal where 0.50 inches of liquid would yield 0.50 inches of ice accretion.

Hickory, NC, 12/15/05: 1.21 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.50 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.41 to 1)

Charlotte, NC, 12/15/05: 1.00 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.25 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.25 to 1)

Greensboro, NC 01/29/05: 0.36 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.25 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.69 to 1)

Hickory, NC 01/29/05: 0.48 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.25 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.52 to 1)

Charlotte, NC, 12/04/02: 0.65 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.50 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.77 to 1)

 

Average ratio in these examples is 0.53...so, 1 inch of liquid would yield 0.53 inches of ice accretion.  Obviously this could be fine tuned by putting storms in various scenarios based on air and ground temperature conditions

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

We had some discussion on this yesterday regarding how liquid amounts convert to ice accretion on exposed surfaces.  Of course, it depends on a lot of factors, but here are a few quick examples I pulled.  Bottom line, it's not a 1 to 1 deal where 0.50 inches of liquid would yield 0.50 inches of ice accretion.

Hickory, NC, 12/15/05: 1.21 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.50 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.41 to 1)

Charlotte, NC, 12/15/05: 1.00 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.25 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.25 to 1)

Greensboro, NC 01/29/05: 0.36 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.25 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.69 to 1)

Hickory, NC 01/29/05: 0.48 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.25 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.52 to 1)

Charlotte, NC, 12/04/02: 0.65 inches of liquid as freezing rain yielded 0.50 inches of ice accretion (ratio 0.77 to 1)

 

Average ratio in these examples is 0.53...so, 1 inch of liquid would yield 0.53 inches of ice accretion.  Obviously this could be fine tuned by putting storms in various scenarios based on air and ground temperature conditions

Surface temps will be critical but also precipitation rates. Folks that get freezing rain want it to stay light (for this event). Or even a heavy drizzle. Once it get heavier the temps will rise quickly towards or above freezing and/or you'll lose most as run off.  

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Wow, that crazy to me that Greenville is still in the mid-30s! Here in Asheville I was at 25 around 9am, but it has risen 15 degrees to 40 in under 3 hours!!:( This solar radiation is no joke! I hope we don't get much warmer then this today although I'm sure we will. :weep:

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I'm just not seeing it with the latest runs of the globals or hi-res models. Looks to me like folks in nega may have a shot at some decent icing(minus Rabun county) and maybe northeastern upstate if precip can get there soon enough, but as usual us in Oconee and eastern Pickens county in the upstate have a hard time getting to freezing much less below freezing. I do see where it looks like highs will struggle to get out of the mid to upper thirties which has trended a little colder but the lows don't seem to be much if any different. Just curious as to where all the optimism for over-performing is coming from.

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19 minutes ago, cwick20 said:

I'm just not seeing it with the latest runs of the globals or hi-res models. Looks to me like folks in nega may have a shot at some decent icing(minus Rabun county) and maybe northeastern upstate if precip can get there soon enough, but as usual us in Oconee and eastern Pickens county in the upstate have a hard time getting to freezing much less below freezing. I do see where it looks like highs will struggle to get out of the mid to upper thirties which has trended a little colder but the lows don't seem to be much if any different. Just curious as to where all the optimism for over-performing is coming from.

Good thing is the cool air is already over the mountains!

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WXSouth just posted this on Facebook.

New model runs are still indicating a significant if not serious Ice event for western Virginia down to western NC. The edges are hard to draw how far east in the Piedmont though, but usually in cases like this, the further west you are nestled just east of the mountains, the harder it is to scour out the low level cold air. THis is a case where mountains by midday will be in the 40s in NC and VA mountans, but just east, places like Hot Springs,down 81 to Roanoke, Blacksburg, Galax, into western NC Mt. Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Hickory and Marion are all near 32 at the height of the pouring rain , with quite a bit of ICE on the trees. It begins in the morning, perfect timing to capture the lowest temps in western VA and western NC , and southwest Virginia to northeast TN, and hold them there. The only warming there will be from the "Top , Down" as the heavy rains move over by 1 and 2 PM, but then its ending rapidly just around that time,and the damage is done for the VA, NC portion. Ending around noon west of the divide.  It will be a slow climb to freezing in those areas, and a few spots probably will stay at or below 32 all the way through the storm tomorrow around western VA and northwest NC foothills. With most of the projected .75" liquid falliing as ICE (little snow to start), with temps in the lee region only going to 33 or 34 at the very end , say last 2 hours of the precip shield.
All in all it's looking like a signficant ice storm over a relatively small narrow zone nestled just east  of the mountain range.Hopefully temps do jump up to 33 and 34 faster than I think , but in most Cold Air Dammig situations, they don't.  But at the final couple of hours, when the heaviest rainis arrive, they may do so (and by late afternoon just ahead of the cold front, but the damage will have been done I'm afraid)
Then clearing tomorrow night in all the Piedmont of VA, NC, SC and northern GA where the ground will be freshly wettened and not enough winds to evaporate the moisture so we'll have black Ice issues Monday Morning in areas that didn't even get freezing rain possibly.

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@gman Thanks for sharing. Reaffirms my concerns for a lot of us north and west guys in the forum. Nice catch on the synopsis. I shared with some of the MA guys I talk with as well.

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