February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[mreaves]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If your getting swayed by a 7 day Op run, Probably weather is not for you, Because you will be an emotional mess 24/7.

That’s what I pay a therapist for!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh its coming, The only thing left is for whom and how many.

Congrats BWI.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats BWI.

Not this run, Congrats pope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not this run.

Shunt.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shunt.

lol, To the pope.

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Its coming, bomb cyclone 2

If the GFS is right (which it likely won’t be) this would crush that January event in many ways.  Much longer duration

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, To the pope.

I've felt from the get-go that latitude is going to be important in this one with that RNA looming out west.....its only going to dig so far to the south.

There are going to be some have nots.....inverse shunt.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If the GFS is right (which it likely won’t be) this would crush that January event in many ways.  Much longer duration

Seems similar to the late Feb 2010 event. Stationary low, long duration snow, only to a lesser extent

[WinterWolf]

We did well in that January event here..15.5 inches is not hay...but a nice slow mover would be nice for a change.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The coastal flooding may beat it, too.

The only area where January is safe is minimum central pressure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS kicks this off at day 6.....long way out, but we aren't talking full-clown range.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The coastal flooding may beat it, too.

The only area where January is safe is minimum central pressure.

Several tide cycles could be bad news.     

Oh well...still 20+ GFS runs to sort out

[WinterWolf]

Yup..and who really cares about that in the end...if it dumps on you...nobody cares if it’s 950 or 984mb if you get a boatload of snow. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup..and who really cares about that in the end...if it dumps on you...nobody cares if it’s 950 or 984mb if you get a boatload of snow. 

Lol 

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've felt from the get-go that latitude is going to be important in this one with that RNA looming out west.....its only going to dig so far to the south.

There are going to be some have nots.....inverse shunt.

It will fall some where in New Englnd, I'm more concerned with the air mass that precedes it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

It will fall some where in New Englnd, I'm more concerned with the air mass that precedes it.

Agree.

One thing to remember as we watch future runs roll out...toggle it with previous run...we want the energy in the SW to hold back...the longer it holds back, the more time the block has to build in and force this a bit further south. That is why I knew this would be better...held back significantly.

It kicks out sooner, and it will make it further north.

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It will fall some where in New Englnd, I'm more concerned with the air mass that precedes it.

Not exactly frigid, is it?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

One thing to remember as we watch future runs roll out...toggle it with previous run...we want the energy in the SW to hold back...the longer it holds back, the more time the block has to build in and force this a bit further south. That is why I knew this would be better...held back significantly.

It kicks out sooner, and it will make it further north.

Euro is a good example of this, It like to hold back the energy down south so that is why your seeing it with these southern solutions but typically there overdone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Not exactly frigid, is it?

GEM looks a lot like the GFS.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Not exactly frigid, is it?

Marginal at best, But it can work out if its tracks right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Euro is a good example of this, It like to hold back the energy down south so that is why your seeing it with these southern solutions but typically there overdone.

Exactly.

Once we weed out those erroneous southern outliers, the EPS will likely get downright gnarly in short order....and it already looks good.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We here at Southbury Weather Center have been very concerned about the marginal airmass for days.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

Once we weed out those erroneous southern outliers, the EPS will likely get downright gnarly in short order....and it already looks good.

I'm not biting at this point up here, I would feel better from your area to probably EWR at this point, But it will come down to the amount of cold air available at the onslaught to see all snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We here at Southbury Weather Center have been very concerned about the marginal airmass for days.

Legit concerns.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel very good about this.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not biting at this point up here, I would feel better from your area to probably EWR at this point, But it will come down to the amount of cold air available at the onslaught to see all snow.

What typical happens is the airmass is marginal 900 down then you get these tremendous height falls associated with rapid deepening.  This has a  blue bomb to powder feel. Interesting week coming up.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This does nothing for here as it exist ESE

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel very good about this.

Yea with that look I wouldn't worry about rain at the newly minted Southbury Wxcentre

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

What typical happens is the airless is marginal 900 down then you get these tremendous height falls associated with rapid deepening.  This has a  blue bomb to powder feel. Interesting week coming up.

As it wet bulbs down yes.