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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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From the NWS for the Western Piedmont of NC, just now:

... WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT... HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING. PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 74.

 

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1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

If it were 35-37 like the models were showing, then it would have been like that.

The only model showing that was the HRRR which is notorious for being too warm and is terrible with temps, especially in the long range of the model. The 3km NAM and RGEM had the right idea with temps.

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

The only model showing that was the HRRR which is notorious for being too warm and is terrible with temps, especially in the long range of the model. The 3km NAM and RGEM had the right idea with temps.

Dude...it is 35 to 37 for many...wake up...many have not seen a drop of snow. They are still under WSW

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Just now, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Dude...it is 35 to 37 for many...wake up...many have not seen a drop of snow. They are still under WSW

I'm well aware of what's going on and things are going according to plan. RGEM had a sharp cutoff and low ratios across Wake county, specifically the SE part where you live. It had the highest totals of 4+ to the west which is where they are. It's going exactly as modeled when you follow the one that has led the way with this storm, the RGEM.

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Probably already discussed, but we have ourselves a CLOSED 500MB LOW. That's helping enhance that western edge precip and should slow the entire system down I'd think.

500mb 303pm.png

correct. comma head might form right over central NC as it pulls east

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Just now, SEwakenosnowforu said:

If comma head forms, will it finally drop our temps? If it had only been below freezing I would easily have 5 to 6 inches by now.

Temps will drop as the 925mb low slides east. It's sitting just to your south hence the warmer boundary layer temps there. Was very well modeled....

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1 minute ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

If comma head forms, will it finally drop our temps? If it had only been below freezing I would easily have 5 to 6 inches by now.

it should. comma head= heavy rates. but the closed ULL should allow the system to slow down so snow should continue into the evening. your temps should really drop by then and you could still pick up a quick 2-3 inches if you get under a good band

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