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Tn Valley Severe Weather

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I know it's impossible to predict this far in advance, but the European model is showing a pretty decent northward extent of the warm sector

image.thumb.png.3f9e561688f728015b3d4114bf2c7855.png

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3 hours ago, VOLtage said:

I know it's impossible to predict this far in advance, but the European model is showing a pretty decent northward extent of the warm sector

image.thumb.png.3f9e561688f728015b3d4114bf2c7855.png

The Euro wants to bomb the system out once it reaches into the O/V.This would start to strenghten the LLJ to around55-65 kts once it starts to get into the MO/V in Tn,it even shows the LLJ getting to around 70 kts into Ky afterwards

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National Weather Service Memphis TN
251 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Beautiful conditions are occurring across the Mid-South this
afternoon as upper ridging is occurring aloft. Temperatures have
climbed into the mid 60s.

Tranquil weather will come to an end as a large scale upper trough
will set up over the Rockies on Monday and will remain in place through
next week. As a result, a series of upper level low pressure
systems move within the flow.

The first will begin to dig into the Texas Panhandle on Monday.
Clouds will begin developing across portions of the Mid-South ahead
of the system late tonight into Monday morning. A few warm air
advection showers will also be possible, but at this time not
enough to mention 20 POPS. The upper level low will then lift
northeastward into Northwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. The
SFC low will be nearly stacked with the upper low tracking in a
similar path. The system will also become occluded as it lifts
northeastward pinching off instability limiting severe weather
potential. That being said, there could still be some gusty winds
from a decaying line of convection that moves into Eastern
Arkansas late Monday Night into early Tuesday morning.

The associated cold front will never clear the Mid-South and will
become stalled over the area Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the front
through Wednesday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday Night
through Thursday evening as the next upper level low pressure
system dives into the Southern Plains. The low will open up to a
potent upper trof becoming negatively tilted as it lifts into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley. The latest GFS has come more in
line with ECMWF and Canadian with the track of the SFC low in the
vicinity of the Mississippi Delta. However, differences remain
with timing of the system. A warm and unstable airmass will be in
place ahead of the system. Looking at the SLU CIPS Analog data,
the number one analog shows this could be a potentially dangerous
severe weather day across the portions of the Mid-South if the
system evolves as models indicate. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and
hail will be possible from storms that develop out ahead of the
system. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Stay tuned.

The final system will move out of the Rockies next weekend
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-
South.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period.

KRM

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Models are consolidated quite a bit today. Ensemble spread is lower. Operational models zig zag less run to run. Looks like a robust warm sector with strong wind fields. Mesoscale details still TBD. Expect a Day 4 outlook Monday morning - valid for Thursday. 

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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Models are consolidated quite a bit today. Ensemble spread is lower. Operational models zig zag less run to run. Looks like a robust warm sector with strong wind fields. Mesoscale details still TBD. Expect a Day 4 outlook Monday morning - valid for Thursday. 

SPC has been surprisingly bearish to this point, but if I recall correctly a few days ago the models were showing the warm sector barely making it onshore the Gulf Coast?

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If nothing else, this one does not have the upper low getting shunted east like last week, but racing off to the lakes. IMO that is a stronger signal for the possibility (not guarantee) of some of the more unstable atmo. making into east TN and plateau areas. 

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35 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Forgive my ignorance - what is this? It doesn't look good, whatever it is.

Just some guidance from the map i ran off of.I would not trust it this far out tho.It basically just shows where a possibility of strong tornadoes could be.

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The 6Z Euro is further west, it now tightens it up more into the MO/V,it was showing the LLJ 55-65 KTS in the Valley now it's more 60-70 kts

AccuWeather-com®-Professional-Forecast-Models.png

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The 6Z Euro is further west, it now tightens it up more into the MO/V,it was showing the LLJ 55-65 KTS in the Valley now it's more 60-70 kts
212331127_AccuWeather-com-Professional-Forecast-Models.png.e2741cc911ef1609291caf27631dd5af.png

Yuck


.

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Couple days ago there was hardly any low level shear

 

ay 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the
   lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. Other strong to
   severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest. Isolated
   damaging wind and large hail are the main threats.

   ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley region...

   Some thunderstorms will probably be ongoing early Saturday, mainly
   across a portion of the TN Valley. There is some uncertainty
   regarding how these early storms evolve, but this activity will
   probably shift northeast and weaken with time. Under the influence
   of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer moisture
   with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect northward
   into this region contributing to moderate instability with up to
   1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Other storms might develop during the evening or
   overnight within the warm advection regime as the low-level jet
   strengthens. A cold front associated with a northern stream
   shortwave trough will approach this region from the northwest and
   likely contribute to the development of additional storms overnight,
   likely consolidating into lines and clusters. This activity will be
   embedded within strong vertical wind profiles supporting the
   potential for a few organized structures capable of mainly isolated
   strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. 

   ...Midwest region...

   Low-level moisture will be more limited in this region. However,
   cold air aloft will compensate and the atmosphere could become at
   least marginally unstable as the boundary layer warms during the
   afternoon. Storms may initiate along frontal zone within a strongly
   sheared environment supportive of a few organized storms capable of
   isolated large hail and damaging wind.

   ..Dial.. 03/25/2021

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ENH risk with 10 percent TOR in W TN -- includes Memphis and is literally knocking on Nashville's door

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the
   lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are
   possible including large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Other
   severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with
   isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats.

   ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions...

   Early Saturday morning a warm front will likely extend across the
   central or northern portions of the Gulf Coast states. It is likely
   that elevated thunderstorms will be in progress within a broad warm
   advection regime north of this boundary, mainly across a portion of
   the TN Valley. Some of this activity could pose a risk for mainly
   hail before shifting northeast and weakening with time. Under the
   influence of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer
   moisture with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect
   northward into this region contributing to a corridor of moderate
   instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the warm
   front. Additional storms are expected develop during the evening
   within an evolving warm advection regime accompanying a
   strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Strengthening vertical
   wind profiles associated with an approaching northern-stream upper
   trough will favor organized storms including supercells. Some of
   these storms will be rooted close enough to the surface to pose a
   risk for tornadoes given expected favorable low-level hodographs.
   Otherwise damaging wind and large hail will also be possible. A cold
   front accompanying the northern stream shortwave trough will
   approach this region from the northwest and will contribute to the
   development of additional storms overnight, likely consolidating
   into lines and clusters with the primary severe threat eventually
   transitioning to isolated damaging wind.
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Just for sake of showing.... the HRRR nailed that one long track supercell that formed SW of Jackson and tracked to the SE of Nashville.

3da414b9c77a291a25031d23068ff502.jpg


.

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Yes the HRRR started keying in on that at the 15Z run. Appears that a north-south line of convergence ran from Corinth, Miss into Tenn. Intersected with outflow boundary. When the HRRR at 15Z matched my conceptual model (March 27 thread) I immediately departed. Had packed car. Memphis buddies met me in Corinth. Then we gave chase. Also in the March 27 thread.

 

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Models are hinting at a ULL diving down towards the Valley next week.Overall the Global winds are meh.1+2 ENSO is meh as well right now.Troughs going to East Asia but not really impressive looking but still troughs.

CFS has a Kelvin coming through next week,so this should be a uptick to a severe weather potential period.

CIPS-Analog-Based-Severe-Probability-Guidance.png

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1 minute ago, VOLtage said:

Very nasty looking couplet on the Campbell county storm.

Likely a TDS for 2 scans that came close or crossed SR 63. Luckily I remembered that place as being pretty rural, however there are definitely structures scattered about there. 

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