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JAN 4th Coastal

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Interesting note fwiw

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For what it's worth, the 12z Euro is going to be too far east in the initialization of the surface low.

WPC and obs suggest just south of the Keys right now. The Euro was over Eleuthera. The GFS seemed too far north up for the Florida coast.

Oddly enough, both models end up catching each other and being almost exactly the same position south of New England.

 

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Some minor adjustments for the area at H5 on the Euro. It was a small step in the right direction with a bit more backing of the precip shield back into most of the sub-forum, but it's fairly light. QPF totals never max above 0.1" for anyone west of the Bay expect Southern MD. Euro is still very stingy with precip on the Eastern Shore and the evolution at the surface looks a little strange with the eastward jumps quickly once near our latitude. The Key was H5 was slightly more favorable, so take that for what it's worth. Pretty much all guidance has some precip make it past the 95 corridor, albeit mostly light stuff. Thinking areas west of 95 out to Rt 15 could see some flakes flying by early Thursday morning, even if it's light. Eastern shore on a line from Cambridge to OCMD will be the sweet spot for this one. Blizzard conditions will be possible along the immediate coast during height of storm. Friday looking brutal in terms of wind and cold. WC's likely in the single digits to below 0 for everyone. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Some minor adjustments for the area at H5 on the Euro. It was a small step in the right direction with a bit more backing of the precip shield back into most of the sub-forum, but it's fairly light. QPF totals never max above 0.1" for anyone west of the Bay expect Southern MD. Euro is still very stingy with precip on the Eastern Shore and the evolution at the surface looks a little strange with the eastward jumps quickly once near our latitude. The Key was H5 was slightly more favorable, so take that for what it's worth. Pretty much all guidance has some precip make it past the 95 corridor, albeit mostly light stuff. Thinking areas west of 95 out to Rt 15 could see some flakes flying by early Thursday morning, even if it's light. Eastern shore on a line from Cambridge to OCMD will be the sweet spot for this one. Blizzard conditions will be possible along the immediate coast during height of storm. Friday looking brutal in terms of wind and cold. WC's likely in the single digits to below 0 for everyone. 

It's probably stingy because of the wacky micro-cane evolution between tau 30 and 42 that vacuums up most of the moisture transport and forcing at the expense of everything else around it. Literally develops an obvious convective-induced mesolow and drops it from 999 to 961mb in 12 hours, which then becomes the dominant SLP with hurricane force winds at the surface right around the center. A strip of 3"+ 6-hourly QPF right along that track and 15-20C 850mb temps in the core. Downright subtropical.

Seems to be suffering from the same disease as some of our higher-res friends in previous runs (some of the 3km NAM runs come to mind).

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Euro still a disaster.   Has like .05" liquid for most of the area, calling for snow is a risky proposition. This is a windchill maker.

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3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It's probably stingy because of the wacky micro-cane evolution between tau 30 and 42 that vacuums up most of the moisture transport and forcing at the expense of everything else around it. Literally develops an obvious convective-induced mesolow and drops it from 999 to 961mb in 12 hours, which then becomes the dominant SLP with hurricane force winds at the surface right around the center. A strip of 3"+ 6-hourly QPF right along that track and 15-20C 850mb temps in the core. Downright subtropical.

Seems to be suffering from the same disease as some of our higher-res friends in previous runs (some of the 3km NAM runs come to mind).

Yeah, it's really tricky but fascinating to watch baffle the models. Do you think we'll get any clarity in the guidance in the very short range as we start to see the low to the south develop?

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, it's really tricky but fascinating to watch baffle the models. Do you think we'll get any clarity in the guidance in the very short range as we start to see the low to the south develop?

It should quiet down once the low actually develops.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It's probably stingy because of the wacky micro-cane evolution between tau 30 and 42 that vacuums up most of the moisture transport and forcing at the expense of everything else around it. Literally develops an obvious convective-induced mesolow and drops it from 999 to 961mb in 12 hours, which then becomes the dominant SLP with hurricane force winds at the surface right around the center. A strip of 3"+ 6-hourly QPF right along that track and 15-20C 850mb temps in the core. Downright subtropical.

Seems to be suffering from the same disease as some of our higher-res friends in previous runs (some of the 3km NAM runs come to mind).

When I looked at the H5 progression, it looked better than last run, and you can see the height pattern change just enough to put west of the Bay back into the game. The weird part for me was looking at the overall surface reflection and I see exactly what you are pointing out. Sitting at work and told my coworker that the surface reflection just looked so wonky and jumpy and low centered within convective clusters each time is a good sign that something is up. Definitely seen this song and dance before with other storms. I'm in full agreement with you on placement of low will be closer to the coastal front. Low will want to stay along the baroclinic zone. That's good for our Eastern shore friends with better alignment of H7 frontogenesis along and just in of the coast. 

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro still a disaster.   Has like .05" liquid for most of the area, calling for snow is a risky proposition. This is a windchill maker.

I think you have to at least call for a chance of snow. It might be 50% for west of 95 with 30-40% back to Rt 15, but as a forecaster, you have to cover for the potential. Unless we see unanimous shift to greater than 0.1" west of 95, then an Advisory is probably not necessary and can always add one when something begins to fall. If you call for nothing and it happens, that's when people start lambasting you. The public is a cruel S.O.B when it comes to snow forecasts. 

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

When I looked at the H5 progression, it looked better than last run, and you can see the height pattern change just enough to put west of the Bay back into the game. The weird part for me was looking at the overall surface reflection and I see exactly what you are pointing out. Sitting at work and told my coworker that the surface reflection just looked so wonky and jumpy and low centered within convective clusters each time is a good sign that something is up. Definitely seen this song and dance before with other storms. I'm in full agreement with you on placement of low will be closer to the coastal front. Low will want to stay along the baroclinic zone. That's good for our Eastern shore friends with better alignment of H7 frontogenesis along and just in of the coast. 

Yep, that ORF-DOV corridor looks pretty good right now, maybe a smidgen NW of there if H5/H7 continue to trend a bit more NW with time and the low hugs the coastal front a bit more.

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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think you have to at least call for a chance of snow. It might be 50% for west of 95 with 30-40% back to Rt 15, but as a forecaster, you have to cover for the potential. Unless we see unanimous shift to greater than 0.1" west of 95, then an Advisory is probably not necessary and can always add one when something begins to fall. If you call for nothing and it happens, that's when people start lambasting you. The public is a cruel S.O.B when it comes to snow forecasts. 

Particularly in this case, with the super cold antecedent ground conditions. Any snow that falls will stick and could cause traffic problems. THAT'S when the public starts the lambasting.

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Hope you all enjoy your power currently running a generator entire eastern shore of va is out pole fire

 

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1 minute ago, Beachin said:

Hope you all enjoy your power currently running a generator entire eastern shore of va is out pole fire

 

I hope it gets fixed very soon, and that you get tons of snow from this storm!

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guess it's Ocean City for me then. 

Take a long snow jebwalk for me, and shovel some snow too. Get pics or this trip never happened!

Get videos of the torrential snow falling past brilliant streetlights! This is a must!

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This is about to explode, current analysis would suggest main low is forming southeast of Miami FL and arctic wave is (can't believe I am typing this) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, snow is about to break out between TLH and GNV.

Upper support is massing over AL-wGA, and it's probably going to run right up the coast to Hatteras, try to hang a left, then lurch east-north-east, but not in time to spoil your potential snowfall event.

First call 

1-3" DCA-IAD

3-5" BWI

8-15" Delmarva

14-22" se VA

2-5" e PA and most of NJ

4-7" NYC

8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA

15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH

20-40" Maine, NB

10-15" w NS

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WxWatcher007 you better head for SE VA NOW! You might get to jebwalk in nearly two feet of pow!

I'd sell my soul and give all that I have just for a one DAY and night of watching this storm in Maine! WOW ALMOST FOUR FEET of snow!!!

Storm of a Lifetime! And those Winds! 30 foot drifts up there easy.

I'd show those New Englanders how to dig snow! NO ONE shovels snow like The Jebman!

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Storm Warning

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
227 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

ANZ650-652-031530-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.GL.A.0001.180104T0600Z-180105T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.SR.W.0001.180104T0300Z-180104T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chincoteague VA out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm-
227 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a Storm
Warning, which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Thursday.

* WINDS: North then northwest 30 to 40 kt with gusts to around 50
  kt.

* SEAS: 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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Pushing 2 inches qpf on the delmarva. Amazing storm coming 

Last image is one to remember look at the size

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_30.png

namconus_apcpn_neus_15.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_35.png

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Akq just pulled the trigger seeing the nam

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
323 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

VAZ084-086-089-090-099-100-523>525-031630-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.180103T1800Z-180104T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.180103T1800Z-180104T1800Z/
Gloucester-Mathews-Surry-James City-Accomack-Northampton-York-
Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Barham, Gwaltney Corner, Bacons Castle,
Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, Poolesville,
Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Chincoteague, Wallops Island, Melfa,
Exmore, Cape Charles, Cheapside, Fishermans Island, Kiptopeke,
Kiptopeke State Park, and Plantation
323 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday.
  Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 7 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern and southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

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3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Of course I dont take the complete phase on the NAM seriously but it is a thing of beauty. Pure weather porn.

Just loop it its pretty amazing it's a superstorm

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