BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I don't know. Ed Vallee said that he showed a solution identical to the Euro (which it is). Maybe he's sticking to his belief, which of course will likely be wrong Well it will be a December to remember if we get record highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Damn that SE ridge is is a fighter. Sorry EPO, maybe you can get cold into the east next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 No way this locks in for 8 days maybe it gets worse but this isn't the final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Perfectly said It’s not really luck. It’s reality. Nothing can turn this around. Might not be 80 but we will make a run at it for sure. How did we get here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The best long range Mets always admit when they're wrong. Heck, that's a core value for anytime someone makes a bad call. We're probably 3 days away from knowing for sure so DT can fight on that premise. Right now his call is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro show SE ridge holding until 27th. I think this is far fetched (just a little), since no ensembles or Ops have shown this at all for the past 24 hours. All of them show cold overtaking the ridge by the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Damn that SE ridge is is a fighter. Sorry EPO, maybe you can get cold into the east next time. It’s just in a bad spot and no help from the NA...now it’s just a matter of determining how warm and how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 UGH Nothing screams Christmas like wearing shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro dreaming of a December 2005 Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 And lemme guess, Euro shows something silly like a white Christmas for Dallas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro show SE ridge holding until 27th. I think this is far fetched (just a little), since no ensembles or Ops have shown this at all for the past 24 hours. All of them show cold overtaking the ridge by the 26th I agree that euro op seems extreme but looking at the big picture, all guidance is slowing it down right now. And the process that's causing it gets going by d4-5. That's not that far out in time. That needs to change before I'll buy anything that starts speeding things up again. You're fairly new at this game but good advice is to never underestimate the SE ridge/+nao combo. As soon as it started showing up I warned that I was worried it would be a pain in the rear. That wasn't a guess as much as much as relying on basically staring at weather models for 11 years. I've seen this show many times before. The ending is usually the same. Not always of course but the odds play is to hedge on it holding longer than first expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Damn that SE ridge is is a fighter. Sorry EPO, maybe you can get cold into the east next time. At the surface it's 20 degrees colder in verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Deep down we all knew it was headed this way. It was just a matter of how warm. Where is the HP over NE? What happened to the CAD? All went poof. Do I think this will hold longer than we think? Yes..just gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Honestly, what the GFS shows is kind of tolerable. 40s isn't the end of the world. The Euro on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Well, I guess my plan to have the Christmas Eve party at least partially outside around the fire pit might work out for the best at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Major snowstorm potential, bizzard potential, Dec 26-27 because of slight error on model regarding -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Honestly, what the GFS shows is kind of tolerable. 40s isn't the end of the world. The Euro on the other hand... I would kill for 40s. No way it's 40s. I agree with Bob. And it's the Euro. SER and +NAO is a deadly combo. I too have been model watching for a long time. Not as smart as the others but I do know ugly patterns and bright red colors. We have both on all op runs in the med range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s just in a bad spot and no help from the NA...now it’s just a matter of determining how warm and how long. GFS makes a little more sense, it stretches the SE ridge and allows some of the cold being generated by the block to mix in and neutralize it. ECMWF on the other hand lets the ridge completely dominate the vortex, and little mixing to allow the cold to neutralize the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 If you look at the trends, GFS has basically always showed a warm Christmas since Christmas was within hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Major snowstorm potential, bizzard potential, Dec 26-27. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Based on what? NAO not being handled... 10mb PV dropped lower than it had ever before in November, and these are effects (more arctic ice melt) It's wobbling more on its axis, and models are in picking this up but in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: NAO not being handled... 10mb PV dropped lower than it had ever before in November, and these are effects (more arctic ice melt) Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I can't believe my fake LWX discussion in the Panic Room is going to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 DT still not talking about temps on Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I mean, if it makes you guys feel better, EPS probability has the chances of DC being over 70 degrees at 0-10% While it puts us at 50/50 for being over 50 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 33 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT still not talking about temps on Xmas Deflecting...not unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Well, I guess my plan to have the Christmas Eve party at least partially outside around the fire pit pool might work out for the best at this point. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Eps not breaking down the cold conus pattern through the end of the run so a small victory today. Not a great nor bad upper level look. Just gotta hope it doesn't morph into the SE ridge returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps not breaking down the cold conus pattern through the end of the run so a small victory today. Not a great nor bad upper level look. Just gotta hope it doesn't morph into the SE ridge returning. Does the cold make it here before 27 Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Does the cold make it here before 27 Dec? Looks like the 26th is the transition day on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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