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December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?


WeatherFeen2000
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This is exactly why you don’t look at the 84 hour NAM or the RGEM at the end of its run. The NAVGEM is flat out lol worthy, the Canadian sucks, as it has proven time and again, utter garbage. The UKMET although a good model, was a big outlier, flip-flopping, all alone and the furthest west and amped out of any of the other viable models. Its solution made no sense based on the pattern. The people who were riding the long-range NAM/long-range RGEM/NAVGEM/Canadian/UKMET train are going to end up like Casey Jones....

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is exactly why you don’t look at the 84 hour NAM or the RGEM at the end of its run. The NAVGEM is flat out lol worthy, the Canadian sucks, as it has proven time and again, utter garbage. The UKMET although a good model, was a big outlier, flip-flopping, all alone and the furthest west and amped out of any of the other viable models. Its solution made no sense based on the pattern. The people who were riding the long-range NAM/long-range RGEM/NAVGEM/CMC/UKMET train are going to end up like Casey Jones....

Since all the above suck its safe to say you like the EPS right ? 

It has .2 to .3  into coastal NJ for the weekend 

You buy it ? 

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I only see 1 to 3 inches of snow from PHL to BDR. 2 to 4 inches plus at LI. Why? It's because of the close call phase. The PV will suppress, but honestly the Southern Stream will be very vigorous. Sadly that won't mean it will neutral tilt on time. So I'd say the European Computer Model is the closest to that solution.

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1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Please don’t verify yourself with Atlantic City either. Stick with the forum geography. 

I bet you don't even have access to the EPS 

Show us that you know what you're talking about.

Show the board . 2 in C Monmouth County.

AC is .5 , the forecast is .2 to .3 in coatsal CNJ.

I bet you are getting this off twitter and you don't have access do you ?

Show me ....

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2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

A lot of us like the 13th 18th and even something around the 23rd.

This weekends system has small upside east of I95.

.2 to .3 is seen on the EPS and that has been the idea.

No one is humping the UK or CMC they are high skilled scored models that may be over doing it in the deep south..

This 3 week cold pattern has been talked about from late November.

There's a chance it's active 

With the forecast sustained deep blocking, I think we will have opportunities and will probably cash in on at least one. Overall, I still like a colder and snowier than normal month.

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27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the forecast sustained deep blocking, I think we will have opportunities and will probably cash in on at least one. Overall, I still like a colder and snowier than normal month.

Don, there will be a few opportunities in this pattern , I don't think we can pick the 1 or 2 for certain but you can see the MJO going into the troughy phases around the same time the TPV elongates.

Then by day 16 on the EPS and GEFS the trough digs back into the GAO.

That should all but seal the cold through all of Dec

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4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Don, there will be a few opportunities in this pattern , I don't think we can pick the 1 or 2 for certain but you can see the MJO going into the troughy phases around the same time the TPV elongates.

Then by day 16 on the EPS and GEFS the trough digs back into the GAO.

that should all but seal cold through all of Dec

I agree. I'm actually more excited about both December and the winter than I have been in the last few years. I think we'll be able to look back at the end of this month and see that it was a very nice December. The deepening trough at the end of the EPS run is a really encouraging development. I am looking forward to the next few weeks.

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3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The other thing, is let’s stop declaring ourselves victors of this fantasy competition... nobody is correct or incorrect... especially not 3 days out still... lol @ declaring victory for anything 72+ hours away 

I couldn’t have said it any better myself! 

Lets keep the victory claims either way till after the event...

right now anything from a wiff to a warning event is possible.

in my opinion the first coating for many this season

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I couldn’t have said it any better myself! 

Lets keep the victory claims either way till after the event...

right now anything from a wiff to a warning event is possible.

in my opinion the first coating for many this season

I agree. The chest thumping can also be very irritating, but the bickering and back-and-forth and "correcting" do bring out a lot of info.

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46 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the record snowfall for the 10th is 1.4" set in 2013...the 8th is 2" set in 1917...any snowfall of an inch or more around the 9th is significant...It's possible we see that by Monday...

But is it? Coincidentally those dates have been snowless. We'v had bigger events in October and early November. It' actually remarkable that the record for December 10th is only 1.4" when you think about it.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

But is it? Coincidentally those dates have been snowless. We'v had bigger events in October and early November. It' actually remarkable that the record for December 10th is only 1.4" when you think about it.

1995 had an inch and a half on the 9th...2005 set the record on the 9th with almost 6"...any snow will be a plus on December 9th...

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

valid point on using certain models outside of their useful range.   NAM above 48 hrs is worthless....SREFS should only be used within 36 hrs or less....

The SREFs are basically the NAM ensembles, only useful very short range. And you’re right, the NAM isn’t a good model period, let alone past 48 hours, but when it shows a lot of snow, it’s gospel to some all the way out to hour 84. The RGEM long range? Equally as totally worthless as the NAM long range. Designed as a short range model only. The Canadian/CMC should honestly be trashed, it’s honestly horrifically bad no matter what the time range, and the NAVGEM (former NOGAPS) is just a joke, total waste, should be discontinued as the DGEX is about to be.....

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11 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Wow. This is great. I just hope the 9th can provide at least 1 inch of snowfall. That will give me hope. 

edit...1995 was the second inch of the season...growing up in the early 1960's NYC got it's first inch of snow on...all four Decembers had additional snow between the 21st and 24th...

1960...15" 12/11-12...

1961.....1" 12/9-10...

1962.....1" 12/9-10...

1963.....2" 12/12...

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A digging shortwave across the upper Great Lakes Friday night
will dig into the base of the upper trough across the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. The backing upper flow and jet
energy along the east coast will allow for multiple frontal
waves to form offshore along a stationary front. There are
enough differences in the model suite as well as with their
ensemble members to raise concern for a potential snowfall event
late Friday night into Saturday. Solutions generally point
toward a glancing blow with the 12Z GFS the farthest east with
its precipitation, mainly across far eastern Long Island and
southeast Connecticut. The ECMWF and NAM are farther west with a
potential light snowfall event back as far west as the NYC
metro and Lower Hudson Valley. This all hinges on the
amplification and progression of the deepening upper trough.
Often, in past winters we have seen the models being too far
south with the precipitation as strong enough jet dynamics have
allowed for some adjustment of the low track to the NW. That
being the case, the GGEM appears to be an outlier with a heavy
snowfall event across the region. At this time, the forecast
calls for a light snowfall event with the potential for 1-2
inches of snowfall across eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut. However, trends in the guidance the next 24 hours
will probably be a good signal to which way we are headed.

NOAA AFD UPTON

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