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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Happy Anniversary of Snowvember. 3 years ago today. 

 

That storm was the absolute biggest tease to me! At that time we lived in Cheektowaga closer to the buffalo border and we received about 16" of snow while 1 mile to the south there was 83"...I couldn't believe I missed seeing such an epic event by that little bit. 

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Global’s continue flip flopping on where max precipitation is, not that it matters, looks like an (semi) early season light to moderate event incoming ..Enjoy :snowman:

0z Gfs top, 6z bottom..

AD6CE2C3-F35B-4661-A3A5-7957D5D687B9.jpeg

CCC6CECE-7AFA-40C5-9057-638821735270.jpeg

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Kbuf 

 

 
The base of a fairly deep longwave trough will be centered just to
the east of our forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. This will
keep a cyclonic flow of cold air over the lakes with little
variation in steering flow. While this would normally be favorable
for significant snowfall downwind of the lakes...there will not be
an abundance of synoptic moisture to help support the lake response.
The persistent 300 flow though will allow for some priming from
upstream lakes...so its not out of the question that a plowable
snowfall could take place. This would especially be the case over
Oswego County.

As for some specifics...
Off Lake Erie...a 320 flow early on Sunday will back to around
300 degrees during the midday and afternoon while the limiting cap
will rise to around 10k ft. This will be accompanied by a short
lived upstream connection to lake Huron...with the most favorable
lake snow conditions forecast to come between 18z Sunday and
06z Sunday night. Several inches of snow are anticipated...but
nothing significant. As the low level flow starts to back to 290
later Sunday night...the upstream connection will be lost and
snowfall rates will suffer accordingly. Only minimal snow
accumulations are then expected for the second half of Sunday
night and Monday when warming aloft will eventually bring an end
to the lake response.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...organized lake effect snow may take
several hours to get going on Sunday as the cold air will need time
to deepen. Initially...a 300 flow will direct a lake response
across Oswego County with snowfall rates of a half inch or so
per hour within the developing band. As we push into Sunday
night though...a backing of the winds aloft will establish an
upstream connection to Georgian Bay. This will encourage more
significant snowfall rates within a well established band that
will primarily stretch across northern Wayne and Cayuga Counties
to southern Oswego County. It will be from Sunday night into
the first half of Monday that will be the most likely time frame
when winter headlines for lake effect snow would be needed. As
we progress through he day Monday...winds will back a little
during the course of the day...breaking the upstream connection
to Georgian Bay while also allowing accumulating snows to fall
over a new area

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I tried to copy the 240 HR of the 00z euro model...shows positive heights out west and what looks like some deep troughiness in the east...the EPS actually is about a day or 2 earlier but is close...interesting if it holds

www.tro.txt

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9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Happy Anniversary of Snowvember. 3 years ago today. 

 

Just epic!  Still don't know how much snow I actually had as I was not able to make it to my board in the backyard.  Midnight had 2 inches... 7am had 33 inches... After that I wasn't able to step foot back there for 2 more days.  Took a snow depth of 56" in the middle of my street on day 2 so had to be in the 60-70" range.  First time I've ever not made it in to work due to the weather.  

IMG_3757.JPG

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Global’s continue flip flopping on where max precipitation is, not that it matters, looks like an (semi) early season light to moderate event incoming ..Enjoy :snowman:

0z Gfs top, 6z bottom..

AD6CE2C3-F35B-4661-A3A5-7957D5D687B9.jpeg

CCC6CECE-7AFA-40C5-9057-638821735270.jpeg

Has been looking pretty good for you last few runs. Thinking 3-6" or so. 

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That storm was the absolute biggest tease to me! At that time we lived in Cheektowaga closer to the buffalo border and we received about 16" of snow while 1 mile to the south there was 83"...I couldn't believe I missed seeing such an epic event by that little bit. 

Yeah I measured 88.5" total. 50" from event 1 and 38.5" from event 2. Don't think I'll ever see an event like that again. Where do you guys live now?

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I tried to copy the 240 HR of the 00z euro model...shows positive heights out west and what looks like some deep troughiness in the east...the EPS actually is about a day or 2 earlier but is close...interesting if it holds

www.tro.txt

Yeah last nights euro was complete reverse or what it showed for several days, definitely looked better. I think the models are really handling everything poorly right now, so anything beyond a week is tough to take with any substance right now.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah last nights euro was complete reverse or what it showed for several days, definitely looked better. I think the models are really handling everything poorly right now, so anything beyond a week is tough to take with any substance right now.

Agree completely with what you just said...even Cohen is torn as to the signals that are showing up at this time...we are in Williamsville now, but trust me I made every effort to move to the traditional snow belts!!!

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Kevin Williams long time meteorologist in roc did a winter outlook for region yesterday. It' on Facebook. I encourage everyone to take a look. He does not buy into the climate models showing a blowtorch winter. Calling for average temps and above normal snow in roc

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That storm was the absolute biggest tease to me! At that time we lived in Cheektowaga closer to the buffalo border and we received about 16" of snow while 1 mile to the south there was 83"...I couldn't believe I missed seeing such an epic event by that little bit. 

God bless you all. I’m almost certain I couldn’t live through those kind of gradients. Being down here has already taken significant tread off my lifespan tire lol.

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57 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah last nights euro was complete reverse or what it showed for several days, definitely looked better. I think the models are really handling everything poorly right now, so anything beyond a week is tough to take with any substance right now.

Saw an article on the Washington Post maybe 2 weeks ago talking about the NWS being short staffed up in Alaska and as a result they have cut back on ballon launches up there by 25 - 50%.  Anyone think this could be effecting the swings in verification we have been seeing? 

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42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

God bless you all. I’m almost certain I couldn’t live through those kind of gradients. Being down here has already taken significant tread off my lifespan tire lol.

I follow you all on the Mid-Atlantic boards quite often, never have I witnessed so many highs and so many lows...there should be a bi-polar blog for those times when the models tease you guys!

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43 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I follow you all on the Mid-Atlantic boards quite often, never have I witnessed so many highs and so many lows...there should be a bi-polar blog for those times when the models tease you guys!

Haha we're a mess. By the way, I'm Owner and CEO of The Panic Room. I'm sure you've heard of it.

Be sure to take a look at that thread when it's up and running. Plenty of laughs and misery :lol: 

I'm heading up to the Capital Region for the weekend and let me just say, the train ride up the Hudson is one of my favorite things in the world. Incredibly beautiful. 

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Either way I see less then 6" of snow the next 2 weeks for anywhere in New York. Best chances for that would be Tug Hill and highest hill tops in SW NYS. The colder than normal pattern with no snow is taking away from Eries LES potential pretty quickly. If it's not going to snow, I would rather have 60 and sun then 40 and cloudy. 

I disagree with this statement 100%, but that's why the weather is great!

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God bless you all. I’m almost certain I couldn’t live through those kind of gradients. Being down here has already taken significant tread off my lifespan tire lol.


I would have walked the mile to be in the elements.


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Global’s continue flip flopping on where max precipitation is, not that it matters, looks like an (semi) early season light to moderate event incoming ..Enjoy :snowman:

0z Gfs top, 6z bottom..

AD6CE2C3-F35B-4661-A3A5-7957D5D687B9.thumb.jpeg.aaac47e06ad6d1cc5dc63cda68ed3fc0.jpeg

CCC6CECE-7AFA-40C5-9057-638821735270.thumb.jpeg.f34173a940b4ff964755d74016d3d4eb.jpeg

Looks good to me, lol!

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No one has mentioned that ENSO conditions are showing weak La Nina conditions lasting through the Season. A La Nina Winter normally see's a Northern tier Winter with quite a few Miller B's and Clippers so Lake Belts, get ready to get absolutely annihilated, lol!! Not liking SW flow lake belts at this point.

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Saw an article on the Washington Post maybe 2 weeks ago talking about the NWS being short staffed up in Alaska and as a result they have cut back on ballon launches up there by 25 - 50%.  Anyone think this could be effecting the swings in verification we have been seeing? 

Absolutely. Less current upper level data will for sure throw things off a bit.  That is generally why it's hard to trust storm tracks from storms that haven't entered airspace where soundings take place in.

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Absolutely. Less current upper level data will for sure throw things off a bit.  That is generally why it's hard to trust storm tracks from storms that haven't entered airspace where soundings take place in.

 

Good catch SBS, definitely

 

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha we're a mess. By the way, I'm Owner and CEO of The Panic Room. I'm sure you've heard of it.

Be sure to take a look at that thread when it's up and running. Plenty of laughs and misery :lol: 

I'm heading up to the Capital Region for the weekend and let me just say, the train ride up the Hudson is one of my favorite things in the world. Incredibly beautiful. 

I've read it and thoroughly enjoy it! Not that the misery of the middle Atlantic snow lovers is a kick but the comments Crack me up.

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2 hours ago, tim123 said:

Kevin Williams long time meteorologist in roc did a winter outlook for region yesterday. It' on Facebook. I encourage everyone to take a look. He does not buy into the climate models showing a blowtorch winter. Calling for average temps and above normal snow in roc

Jim Teske on channel 9 in Syracuse did his winter outlook last night. Here is the summary:

So here are the bullet points:

-We expect near normal temperatures in Central New York for the winter months (December-February) but some variability with warm stretches, but also bouts of arctic air. 

-Snowfall will probably be just a bit above normal in the 125"-140" range.

-More lake effect snow than normal this winter.

-There will be more storms that give us a mix of precipitation: starting out as snow, then going over to sleet and freezing rain.

 

This is based on winters with weak La Niñas, winters following wet Octobers and an active tropical season. Also, a warmer than normal Lake Ontario contributed.  

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Here is the list of analogs that I used when coming up with my st. Johns seasonal forecast this year.  It was taylored specifically to most important factors in the leading fall for here so it might not extrapolate well for BUF but it's fun anyway. 

1954 1955 84.8

1967 1968 71.6

1970 1971 97.0

1977 1978 154.3

1986 1987 67.5

1991 1992 92.8

2002 2003 111.3

2003 2004 100.9

2004 2005 109.1

2013 2014 129.9

Average 101.9 6/10 above normal. 

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47 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Here is the list of analogs that I used when coming up with my st. Johns seasonal forecast this year.  It was taylored specifically to most important factors in the leading fall for here so it might not extrapolate well for BUF but it's fun anyway. 

1954 1955 84.8

1967 1968 71.6

1970 1971 97.0

1977 1978 154.3

1986 1987 67.5

1991 1992 92.8

2002 2003 111.3

2003 2004 100.9

2004 2005 109.1

2013 2014 129.9

Average 101.9 6/10 above normal. 

what season is your top analog?

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

what season is your top analog?

I think 1967 1968 was the best match.  This only looks at late-summer fall Nino 1.2 TNI (Nino 4-Nino 1.2) and QBO.  The correlation with winter snow total was about .4 with snow in stj (.01 significance)  But I'd imagine it's much lower farther west.  

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Jim Teske on channel 9 in Syracuse did his winter outlook last night. Here is the summary:

So here are the bullet points:

-We expect near normal temperatures in Central New York for the winter months (December-February) but some variability with warm stretches, but also bouts of arctic air. 

-Snowfall will probably be just a bit above normal in the 125"-140" range.

-More lake effect snow than normal this winter.

-There will be more storms that give us a mix of precipitation: starting out as snow, then going over to sleet and freezing rain.

 

This is based on winters with weak La Niñas, winters following wet Octobers and an active tropical season. Also, a warmer than normal Lake Ontario contributed.  

Pretty much a normal Winter temps wise, with abv normal snowfall especially places to the E&SE off both lakes.

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