stanleyjenkins

I'm a little late! KBUF - 5.5" KROC - 7.3" KSYR- 16.1" KBGM - 6.4"

4.5" here in Chili. 8pm measurement.

I too would be interested, but my wife's 8 months pregnant so I'd need a miracle to occur to be able to get away.

Anyone else signed up to play? I'm "Hugh Midity", coming off a strong 3rd place finish last year with ambitions of winning it all this year. The season gets underway tomorrow and with the pattern shift beginning later next week, things will get exciting early this year. https://www.FantasyBlizzard.com

This pattern change needs to get here already. I'm growing tired of this boring tranquil weather.

I had a thought the other day that kind of relates to this, I think. What exactly do they define as "snow accumulation"? For example, I live in Chili and if I measured snow as the guidelines say over the weekend, I would officially have had trace; however, say my snowboard was chilled and didn't allow any melting, I bet I would have had an inch or more as most of my snow fell in a handful of passing bursts of snow over the course of a few hours when temps were still in the upper 30s and melted after about 10-15 minutes, before hourly measurements could have been taken. So I guess in my mind, over an inch did fall, but never was able to accumulate on the ground to anything more than a trace.

Trace in Chili

Binghamton just hoisted Lake Effect Snow warnings. I thought they were getting rid of these in favor of Winter Storm Warnings?

Anyone care to guess KSYR's total snow accumulation through Monday night? I'm going to say 4.4". Winner gets bragging rights until the next lake effect event.

I'm surprised they haven't issued any watches or advisories yet.

Absolutely. Less current upper level data will for sure throw things off a bit. That is generally why it's hard to trust storm tracks from storms that haven't entered airspace where soundings take place in.

My now empty flower beds were slush covered this morning.

KBUF: 0.1" KROC: 1.5" KSYR: 0.4"

Wow, I didn't realize how dry this air-mass was going to be. The dew point is currently down to 1F at KBUF. KROC's a little more sultry sitting at 8F. Might need to setup the humidifier.

I have 0.9" on the ground this morning in Chili. The patio door on my front door was frozen shut when I tried to let to dogs out at 5am. Had to leave the door open for about half an hour to get that to open again.

T'was the witch of November

Anyone care to play a little game? Guess official snow totals for KBUF, KROC, and KSYR for tonight into tomorrow? I'll begin. KBUF: 0.6" KROC: 0.8" KSYR: 1.0"

Exactly. The sad part is, they give a bad name to the rest of us when the hype turns to a dud. I get asked a bit by family and friends for what the weather will be like _______. Almost always, it's a week, maybe two or more away and say it's too far away. Occasionally, the response will be, but "so and so" (like Accuweather) has forecasts that far out. "How come they can put a forecast that far out, but you can't". Ugh.

That was a nice event to begin the season, especially for me. After the very cold and snowy February 2015 we had, I said to myself that I finally had enough of shoveling and would buy a snow blower. November 2015 came around and I bought one. Time and time again during the 2015-2016 season, the models would hint at some measurable snow coming our way a few days out getting me excited I would get to use it for the first time, but never came to be. There was only one time I was able to use it that entire season (the January snowstorm), at which time I had the flu so it wasn't as great of a first time. So yeah, it was great to get to use it that early on last year. And greetings from Chili! Happy to see someone from Gates in here.

We just need the seal to be broken.

It indeed has been, however; I have standing water in my backyard this morning. I really don't need any of tonight's rain.

Given continuing model continuity, looks like today might not be a bad day to wheel the snow blower back into the garage for the season.

I was just looking at that. Both the 12z and 18z GFS show a bit of an arctic blast. Not so much on the 0z or 6z so it will be interesting to see if future model runs continue to show the plunge.

Great work on the write up. Hard to argue your forecast with all of the reasoning behind it. How long did it take you to write up that post?

It woke me up. Naturally, I had to crack the window to hear it better.