Tropical Storm Jose

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Coming in closer to the coast on the GFS

It's an impressive turn of events on the model. It will be interesting to see how things evolve on the GFS and ECMWF.

[MJO812]

[yoda]

Looks like a stall at 180

[olafminesaw]

It's the max beach erosion run.

[MJO812]

CMC

[yoda]

Meanwhile the GGEM moves faster and plays around with SNE days 5 to 7

[olafminesaw]

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Meanwhile the GGEM moves faster and plays around with SNE days 5 to 7

GFS moves south after coming up the coast

Weird run but a huge shift west by the CMC and GFS

[olafminesaw]

The UKMET is no longer into Florida. No surprise there.

[MJO812]

Ukie

 

[SnoSki14]

Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here.

[MazooWeather]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here.

Don't discount anything this far out

[USCG RS]

Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here.

Euro is a shell of itself. When all. Other guidance is against it, you have to truly consider the possibility.

[Jebman]

Jose wont bother the US. It'll loop around then head harmlessly out to sea.

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Felix produced some tremendous surf during August 95. Long Island beaches were washed over and closed to swimming for almost 2 weeks. There was also some pretty severe beach erosion.

Jose, if he gets close enough will probably do the same but hardly anyone will notice as the beach season is effectively over 

That was a month when we could have used a TC hit, one of our driest summer months on record and wildfires all over the tristate area!

 

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here.

Guessing you didn't see 0z lol

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Guessing you didn't see 0z lol

I didn't either, I was busy sleeping lol- what happened?

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I didn't either, I was busy sleeping lol- what happened?

Ends up here in 10 days but takes a wild track

[Paragon]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Ends up here in 10 days but takes a wild track

Looks pretty weak though, is that a high end tropical storm it shows there or a Cat 1?......the weaker the storm is, the harder it'll be to predict where it's going to go (weak storms typically are less likely to get picked up by troughs and recurve.)

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here.

Euro just shifted way west towards the other models. Hurricane models are now leaning left.

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro just shifted way west towards the other models. Hurricane models are now leaning left.

So everything is shifting to the west?  How strong though?  And what timeframe are we talking about with respect to impacts- next Tuesday and beyond?

[jbenedet]

Clearly a big compromise overnight. The euro op and gfs op lost the idea of a quick "exit stage right", while the ukie backed away from its track towards Florida, and is much closer to the rest of guidance through 144 hr. That said, especially regarding the euro, I would have liked to see more of the compromise in the beginning of the run, versus the end.  The respective operational runs for a graze/LF are incredibly tenuous, as is reflected on their ensembles which are still largely ots. I think the prospect of any LF remains dubious in this setup until/unless we gain significantly more longitude in the 0-96 hr timeframe. 

Although one thing to add to the reasons for why this can be "more than a fish even without landfall" --significant beach erosion, high winds on the coast and coastal flooding etc..--is the anomalous amount of high latitude blocking over the Northwest Atlantic. This aspect is still 8 days out so it's clearly highly uncertain, but it is currently being reflected on most guidance at this point, particularly the euro...so that's something to watch for as well..

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

33 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

A guy on a Windows 95 machine at the Pakistan Meteorological Agency just drew an MS Paint of a sub-900 hurricane over NYC next week.  Watches hoisted when?

Was it JB?

[Paragon]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Clearly a big compromise overnight. The euro op and gfs op lost the idea of a quick "exit stage right", while the ukie backed away from its track towards Florida, and is much closer to the rest of guidance through 144 hr. That said, especially regarding the euro, I would have liked to see more of the compromise in the beginning of the run, versus the end.  The respective operational runs for a graze/LF are incredibly tenuous, as is reflected on their ensembles which are still largely ots. I think the prospect of any LF remains dubious in this setup until/unless we gain significantly more longitude in the 0-96 hr timeframe. 

Although one thing to add to the reasons for why this can be "more than a fish even without landfall" --significant beach erosion, high winds on the coast and coastal flooding etc..--is the anomalous amount of high latitude blocking over the Northwest Atlantic. This aspect is still 8 days out so it's clearly highly uncertain, but it is currently being reflected on most guidance at this point, particularly the euro...so that's something to watch for as well..

 

Looks like the storm will do two loops now- one where it is now and the other one closer to our latitude; we are talking about the 7-10 day period here when the ridge builds back in and either stalls the system or loops it back.  This one looks like a north of Hatteras system vs what Irma was (south of Hatteras.)  Is this still going to be a hurricane 7-10 days from now?  It's barely one right now!

[winterymix]

Equilibrium for about 10 days, clockwise loop and then perhaps counterclockwise loop.   Central pressure looks to

fluctuate between high end tropical storm and low end Cat 1 hurricane.  Good surfing conditions somewhere on the

east coast for gutsy folks.

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Looks like the storm will do two loops now- one where it is now and the other one closer to our latitude; we are talking about the 7-10 day period here when the ridge builds back in and either stalls the system or loops it back.  This one looks like a north of Hatteras system vs what Irma was (south of Hatteras.)  Is this still going to be a hurricane 7-10 days from now?  It's barely one right now!

OBX, to Nova Scotia are definitely the areas to just keep an eye on it; this is particularly true for boaters/beach goers and people who have interests right on the coast. This is a completely different setup than that with Irma, so little to no parallels can be drawn to her at this point.

When TC's gain latitude beyond the subtropics, they can often acquire extra tropical characteristics--windfield expands as does circulation, so they tend to have broader regional impact but less severe impact in the immediate vicinity of the center relative to a true TC. Either way I wouldn't be focused on intensity right now....

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

OBX, to Nova Scotia are definitely the areas to just keep an eye on it; this is particularly true for boaters/beach goers and people who have interests right on the coast. This is a completely different setup than that with Irma, so little to no parallels can be drawn to her at this point.

When TC's gain latitude beyond the subtropics, they can often acquire extra tropical characteristics--windfield expands as does circulation, so they tend to have broader regional impact but less severe impact in the immediate vicinity of the center relative to a true TC. Either way I wouldn't be focused on intensity right now....

So this is way more of a "Perfect Storm" 1991 kind of scenario than it is a Sandy-like scenario.

 

[USCG RS]

So this is way more of a "Perfect Storm" 1991 kind of scenario than it is a Sandy-like scenario.

 

 

 

 

This is a completely different setup than Sandy. This is not a trough hooking him left, hence the meandering just off the mid atl/ne late in the period. This is completely dictated by the WAR. That being said, the PNA looks to spike pretty positive in the 3-7 day period, which opens the door to the potential of troughing, despite any mesoscale feature being reflected with current modeling.

 

 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

11 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So this is way more of a "Perfect Storm" 1991 kind of scenario than it is a Sandy-like scenario.

 
 

Potentially... This is a completely different setup than Sandy. This is not a trough hooking him left, hence the meandering just of the mid atl/ne late in the period. This is completely dictated by the WAR. That being said, the PNA looks to spike pretty positive in the 3-7 day period, which opens the door to the potential of troughing, despite any mesoscale feature being reflected with current modeling.

And climatologically, looping systems like these rarely if ever make landfall.  In the winter we'd be excited by something like this because it could mean a lot of snow falling over a long amount of time (some of our biggest noreasters have looped-  a la 1888, 1978 and 2010.)

[forecasterjack]

Still favoring an OTS track for Jose, but IF it were to come west, here's how it would happen:

Talim recurves a little stronger than forecast due to a sooner turn N/NE limiting land interaction with China

As a result, more latent heat transported into the NPAC jet, resulting in more amplification than forecast. 

Talim is recurving much farther west than Sanvu. As a result, the whole developing RWT shifts west. Ridge that was over the west coast is over the EPAC

With a strong trough over the western US (snow in the Rockies!)

This then amps up the blocking high developing N of Jose, which would allow the storm to come west. That assumes that the ECMWF has correctly modeled an entire hemisphere's worth of RWT interactions. Slim chance, but is it impossible?  No. Far from it.