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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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Looks to me like it will end up Northeast of the Euro run. The steering flow near the Bahamas is still towards the Northeast as Irma approaches

59aad78293f17.png

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By about 18z Saturday the trough is starting to lift out, and Irma is still quite a ways away, so I don't see how it could possibly get recurved OTS.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

By about 18z Saturday the trough is starting to lift out, and Irma is still quite a ways away, so I don't see how it could possibly get recurved OTS.

If the ULL weakens in the Atlantic, OTS odds increase. I personally think it's 60-40 for a CONUS landfall. 

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I think the key here is that the trough is lifting out, so it doesn't make sense to me that it would recurve OTS with a hard right. This allows the ridge to rebuild overhead as the next trough builds into the lakes.

59aad8c9c5137.png

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

If the ULL weakens in the Atlantic, OTS odds increase. I personally think it's 60-40 for a CONUS landfall. 

Honestly, what are you even talking about...?

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Honestly, what are you even talking about...?

Check out the ULL to Irma's NE. That's what's forcing a CONUS landfall from the ridge. 

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I really wish that those giving premature calls and guessing would give it a rest. Look at the steering currents.

59aad95652d88.png

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

Check out the ULL to Irma's NE. That's what's forcing a CONUS landfall from the ridge. 

No it's not, please stop. The strong sub-tropical ridge is responsible. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

No it's not, please stop. The strong sub-tropical ridge is responsible. 

Your not understanding that the SW to the east is nudging the ridge west. IF you can see it, then I can't help you. 

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The trough is pulling out, if it was deepening I might change my mind, but the ridge is rebuilding overhead. Again the stirring flow is Southeasterly here.

59aada0a0b6bc.png

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

Your not understanding that the SW to the east is nudging the ridge west. IF you can see it, then I can't help you. 

The only two things that matter here are the strength of the ridge and the timing and amplitude of the trough lifting out.

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

By about 18z Saturday the trough is starting to lift out, and Irma is still quite a ways away, so I don't see how it could possibly get recurved OTS.

And how does the Euro model the trough? Does it also lift it out ... and at the same point?

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

The only two things that matter here are the strength of the ridge and the timing and amplitude of the trough lifting out.

If those are that matter to you, then fine. Not worth my time arguing here. 

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If you don't believe me, look how that ridge builds to the North of the cyclone. This is a textbook East coast landfall, if one exists.

59aadb94dc3d6.png

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Look how that ULL over the Ohio Valley turns over, it really is eerily close to Sandy. Landfall is just over DE/MD rather than SNJ.

59aadc89b7037.png

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