yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, ice1972 said: Is it me or did 0z GFS op make second landfall further north in SC? Um yes it did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It this misses FL, which is very possible, I think the landfall in the Carolinas may be pretty manageable, albeit still major. I do not buy this maintaing cat 4 or 5 intensity that far up given the deteriorating upper envt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The models continue to focus more and more on the 500mb cutoff over new England I mentioned last night. Definitely a trend towards a SC/NC landfall. Favors the weak upper low/trough over the southeast. This is causing Irma to pull north towards the trough and then curve NNW at the end towards the coastline after it is left behind. It is left to move around the weak ULL disturbance. Exactly. It’s trending slower causing more interaction with Irma thus a quicker N pull. Here’s the past 4 GFS runs. Now here are 3 runs of the NAM showing a similar trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara Yes... but its track looks weird... it visits C Cuba at 72... then moves N at 96 to NE at 120 across S FL from the GOM side to the ATL side... then moves back N to hit SC at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like some dry air and sheer for Irma when she gets to Florida.http://i.imgur.com/6dynUpe.gifv The upper ridge and 250 mb pattern is modeled to follow Irma near to Florida. The transition occurs as Irma begins a more northerly motion. Shear will eventually be an issue as southerly mid level flow around the mid-to-upper trough/cutoff to Irma's west strengthens. But when does that become significant enough to induce significant weakening? Irma will be increasing its forward speed NNW or N as well. Poleward outflow is on steriods at the 250-200 mb level. Irma may even be able to reintensify after a first potential landfall in southern Florida (if that occurs) if it moves over the Gulf Stream towards the Southeast coast. Some dry continental air may get forced into the system. But that being substantial enough before a second landfall is in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 DT (WxRisk) on Irma https://www.wxrisk.com/florida-se-georgia-or-south-carolina-or-all-3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara That could be a precursor that the Euro may hold serve or move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: That could be a precursor that the Euro may hold serve or move west. Doubt it tonight... 00z UKIE's track for Irma is just silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) on Irma https://www.wxrisk.com/florida-se-georgia-or-south-carolina-or-all-3/ Just remember this post was written and posted before the new GFS ran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Doubt it tonight... its track for Irma is just silly The takeaway should be to absolutely not shut the door on a farther west solution than the GFS, but people should already know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That could be a precursor that the Euro may hold serve or move west. We are roughly 72-78 hours out for the south Florida coast. So probably on the last 2-3 model cycles where I may trust the globals over the hurricane models. Once inside 48 it's pretty much the Euro or the hurricane models so if I lived in south Florida and the Euro doesn't stay or come west tonight I'm starting to feel better but probably need to sweat another 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 https://twitter.com/ChrisDeVitoWX/status/905491591359496195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Z-Cast said: https://twitter.com/ChrisDeVitoWX/status/905491591359496195 That was from yesterday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Well then... this... isn't helpful... two camps... GFS OP would be right smack dab in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danny007 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The eye looks to be increasing in size per radar https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=jua&product=N0Z&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Jason WX said: Updated. Doesn't have tonights GFS run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 0z GEFS mean low track is west of the operational. Mean low near S SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Well then... this... isn't helpful... two camps... GFS OP would be right smack dab in the middle Those 6 or so eastern ones have to be out to lunch. Hard to imagine all the other guidance would be missing that sharp of an early turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well then... this... isn't helpful... two camps... GFS OP would be right smack dab in the middle Most of the members are east of Miami, which I think verifies. Going to be tight, but I think Miami avoids catastrophe. Carolinas probably deal with a strong cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: 0z GEFS mean low track is west of the operational. Mean low near S SC Really? It looked like most were east...I stand corrected, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those 6 or so eastern ones have to be out to lunch. Hard to imagine all the other guidance would be missing that sharp of an early turn Its the NE trough leaning back juuust enough to overcome the wave break. Possible.. lets see ehat the Euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Those members that swing out gain a lot more latitude by the time it reaches 75W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Model lurker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, Quincy said: Floyd did, but it was also at least a couple hundred miles farther north and the upper level pattern isn't terribly similar. (Although if you shift Floyd's track W/SW, you'd probably see a similar curve with Irma) Floyd hit NC causing extensive destruction... iirc, at the time it was the largest peacetime evacuation ever ordered (FL, southeast, etc.). More or less paralleled the coast, came onshore as a slightly weaker storm near Oak Island, NC, and proceeded northward, causing extensive flooding in NC all the way up to NY. If Floyd flirted with Florida before heading north, then Irma is all-out seducing her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 00z GEFS forecast low positions at +84 hours, 07/00 via WeatherBELL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 0z Euro starting...at 00hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I really want to be within the 72 to 48 hour timeframes before I even start to get comfortable with the major model players concerning South Florida. Even with Gulf Stream flight data, balloons, etc., the geography of peninsula, shape of coastline and the sharp turn at play is just within too great an error. Two days out and we may still be struggling with southern peninsula landfall. This remains on the extremes of forecasting. We may have horror stories from evacuations and deal with regret, but we'll deal with that later. If I resided in southern Florida, I would have evacuated if told to do so, no regrets. Too much uncertainty and too great a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I'd really keep an eye on the location in regards to the NHC forecast points. Any quicker than expected gain of longitude without a quicker than expected gain of latitude all but seals it for south Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.