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Roger Smith

May 2017 temperature forecast (and seasonal max for 2017) contest

27 posts in this topic

For the regular temperature forecast contest in May, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normal values at

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(late penalties after 06z May 1st at 1% per 2h to 18z May 2 and then 1% per hour)

Also, regular entrants can add seasonal max forecasts any time before May 15, a separate table will be developed from those predictions after May 15 so no requirement to repost, just edit them in if you want. Anyone who wants to enter just the seasonal max contest is welcome to do so in this thread before end of May 15th. 

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DCA +2.5, 103

NYC +2.5, 100

BOS +2.0, 98

ORD +3.0, 103

ATL +2.6, 102

IAH + 2.5, 103

DEN + 3.0, 100

PHX  +1.5, 118

SEA + 1.9, 95

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DCA +1.4  102

NYC +1.2  99

BOS +0.9  97

ORD +1.1 104

ATL +1.9  104

IAH + 1.7  102

DEN + 2.1  101

PHX  +1.1  117

SEA + 2.0  96

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DCA +1.3  100

NYC +1.0   97

BOS +0.3   97

ORD +1.5  95

ATL +1.8   100 

IAH +2.0   103

DEN +1.2   102

PHX +2.0  119

SEA +3.1  93

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DCA +1.3   97

NYC +0.6  97

BOS  -1.2  95

ORD +2.1  98

ATL +2.2 100

IAH +1.6 103

DEN +2.7  103

PHX +2.3 117

SEA +1.2  94

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DCA +0.5, 103

NYC +0.6, 101

BOS +0.5, 100

ORD -0.9, 99

ATL -0.2, 100

IAH -1.0, 106

DEN -0.1, 97

PHX +0.3, 117

SEA -1.0, 87

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DCA: +2.6 ... 101

NYC: +1.7 ... 100

BOS: +1.1 ... 98

ORD: --1.9 ... 96

ATL: --0.5 ... 102

IAH: +2.3 ... 103

DEN: --1.4 ... 98

PHX: +3.4 ... 118

SEA: --1.6 ... 89

 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0      1.0    0.5          0.5      2.0     2.0           0.5     1.0    -0.5

104    100   97           96      103     107           96       116    92

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DCA +0.8, 98

NYC +0.6, 97

BOS +1.1, 97

ORD -1.3, 97

ATL -0.5, 99

IAH +0.5, 104

DEN +1.5, 98

PHX +0.2, 116

SEA +1.4,  92

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+3.5 __ +2.4 __ +2.0 ____ +1.8 __ +4.0 __ +2.0 ____ +1.8 __ +0.2 __ +1.8

102 ___ 97 ____ 98 ______ 99 ____ 101 ___ 108 _____ 110 ___ 120 ___ 100

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DCA...NYC...BOS               ORD...IAH...ATL        DEN...PHX...SEA

-0.7...-1.0...-0.9                 +1.4...+2.8...+1.7    +0.3...+1.1...+0.5

98     96     92                    100      106    103     95      118      87

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Late, but in .. 

 

DCA +1.6 101

NYC +1.2  98

BOS +0.6  97

ORD +1.0 99

ATL +1.7  99

IAH + 1.8 100

DEN + 2.4 102

PHX  +1.0 117

SEA + 1.5   96

 

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Table of forecasts for May 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith ____________ +3.5_ +2.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +4.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +0.2_ +1.8

so_whats_happening _____ +2.8_ +2.1_ +1.3 ___ +2.1_ +2.5_ +1.9 ___ +1.6_ --0.3_ +1.4

neckbeard93 ____________ +2.6_ +1.7_ +1.1 ___ --1.9--0.5_ +2.3 ___ --1.4+3.4--1.6

RJay ___________________+2.5_ +2.5_ +2.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.6_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +1.5_ +1.9

hudsonvalley21 __________ +2.0_ +2.1_ +2.3 ___ +1.7_ +1.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.9_ +0.6_ +0.9

SD ____________________ +2.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.5_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ --0.5

dmillz25 ________________+1.9_ +1.3_ +1.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5

Stebo __________________+1.7_ +1.5_ +1.0 ___ +2.5_ +1.8_ --0.5 ___ --1.0_ --0.5_ --1.5

wxdude64 ______________ +1.7_ +1.4_ +0.4 ___ +0.7_ +2.6_ +2.8 ___ +2.0_ +2.1_ +0.1

 

Consensus ______________+1.7_ +1.2_ +0.8 ___ +1.3_ +1.9_ +1.8 ___ +1.6_ +1.0_ +1.1

 

BKViking ___ (-6%) ______ +1.6_ +1.2_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.7_ +1.8 ___ +2.4_ +1.0_ +1.5

Tom ___________________+1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9 ___ +1.1_ +1.9_ +1.7 ___ +2.1_ +1.1_ +2.0

CCM ___________________+1.3_ +1.0_ +0.3 ___ +1.5_ +1.8_ +2.0 ___ +1.2_ +2.0_ +3.1

wxallannj _______________+1.3_ +0.6_ --1.2 ___ +2.1_ +2.2_ +1.6 ___ +2.7_ +2.3_ +1.2 

RodneyS ________________+0.8_ +0.6_ +1.1 ___ --1.3_ --0.5_ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +0.2_ +1.4

blazess556 ______________ +0.7_ +0.8_ +0.6 ___ --0.7_ --0.4_ --1.1 ___ --0.2_ +0.5_ --1.1

DonSutherland.1 _________+0.5_ +0.6_ +0.5 ___ --0.9_ --0.2_ --1.0 ___ --0.1_ +0.3_ --1.0

Damage in Tolland _______ +0.5__ 0.0_ --1.1 ___ --1.8_ +2.5_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +3.0_ +1.9

 

Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

H2OTown__WX ___________--0.7_ --1.0_ --0.9 ___ +1.4_ +1.7_ +2.8 ___ +0.3_ +1.1_ +0.5

 

With 18 forecasts (plus Normal) the median for Consensus is average of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts.

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, and when Normal is lowest, it changes color to purple from its usual green. This month we have a few below normal forecasts for each location. 

Also, welcome to CCM. ... The seasonal max forecasts will be tabulated on the 16th, feel free everyone to edit or add your forecasts by end of 15th, I won't be gathering these until the 16th so no particular need to mention an edit. As to the forecasts, those are already cross-checked now they are in a table. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Early reports after five, ten, twelve and fifteen days ...

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (5d) _______ +4.6_ +1.1_ --2.4 ___ --6.8_ --2.9_ --3.2 ___ --2.3e_+6.7_ +2.8

________ (10d) ______ --0.7_ --2.3_ --2.8 ___ --6.6_ --2.4_ --3.3 ___ +2.8_ --0.2_ +2.1

________ (12d) ______ --2.0_ --2.7_ --3.3 ___ --5.5_ --1.2_ --2.3 ___ +2.5_ --0.2_ +1.1

________ (15d) ______ --2.3_ --3.5_ --4.0 ___ --3.4_ --0.3_ --2.2 ___ +3.6_ --0.2_ --0.1

 

________ (p22d) _____ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.2_ +1.9__ 0.0 ___ +1.2_ --1.5_ +0.4

________ (p31d) _____ +0.5__ 0.0__ 0.0 ___ --0.5_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +0.5_ --1.0_ +1.5

... next update after 18 days in a new post. Phoenix 108 F on 5th, then only 74 F on 8th.

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Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Table of entries

Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

SD _____________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92

DonSutherland.1 __________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87

blazess556 _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88

RJay ____________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95

Tom ____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96

so_whats_happening _______102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94

Roger Smith ______________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120100

dmillz25 _________________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95

Neckbeard93 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89

 

Consensus (average) _______101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93

 

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98

Stebo ___________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92

BKViking _________________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96

Damage in Tolland _________100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92

wxdude64 ________________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94

CCM ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93

RodneyS __________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92

H2O_Town__Wx ___________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87

wxallannj _________________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94

 

Max to date ___________ 93 __ 92 __ 95 ____ 87 __ 90 __ 91 ____ 86 _ 108 _ 83

 

 

 

 

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Anomaly tracker will be updated for 18, 21, 24, 26, 28, 29, 30 and 31 days. Earlier reports can be found two posts back. ^^

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__________ (18d) _______ --0.5_ --0.6_ --0.4 ____ --1.0_ +1.2_ --1.2 ____ +1.8_ --1.6_ --0.7

__________ (21d) _______ +0.1_ --0.2_ --0.1 ____ --1.9_ +1.9_ --0.3 ____ --0.4_ --1.8_ +0.2

__________ (24d) _______ --0.5_ --0.6_ --0.4 ____ --1.9_ +1.5_ --0.9 ____ --0.8_ --0.8_ +0.9

 

__________ (p31d) ______ +0.5_ --1.0_ --1.0 ____ --1.0_ +2.0__ 0.0 ____ --0.5_ --1.0_ +2.0

 

Record highs of 92 and 95 in BOS on 17th-18th. 92 at NYC on 18th. 

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Provisional scoring for May 2017

These are now perhaps a bit more reliable as the models lock in on the last week and I'm only using the NWS forecasts to generate provisionals.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___east____ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL

 

Damage in Tolland _______100_ 80 _98 ____278 ____ 84 _ 90 _ 50 ____ 224 _____ 502

 

Normal ________________90 _ 80 _ 80 ____ 250 ____ 80 _ 60 _100 ____ 240 _____ 490

 

DonSutherland.1 ________100_ 68 _ 70 ____ 238 ____ 98 _ 56 _ 80 ____234 _____ 472

H2OTown__WX __________76_100_ 98____ 274 ____ 52 _ 94 _ 44 ____ 190 _____ 464

RodneyS _______________ 94 _ 68 _ 58 ____ 220 ____ 94 _ 50 _ 90 ____234 _____ 454

blazess556 ______________96 _ 64 _ 68 ____ 228 ____ 94 _ 52 _ 78 ____ 224 _____ 452

wxallannj _______________84 _ 68 _ 96 ____ 248 ____ 38 _ 96 _ 68 ____ 202 _____ 450 

SD ____________________ 70_ 60 _ 70 ____ 200 ____ 70 _100_ 60 ____ 230 _____ 430

CCM ___________________84 _ 60 _ 74 ____ 218 ____ 50 _ 96 _ 60 ____ 206 _____ 424

Tom ___________________82 _ 56 _ 62 ____ 200 ____ 58 _ 98 _ 66 ____ 222 _____ 422

 

Consensus ______________76 _ 56 _ 64 ____ 196 ____ 54 _ 98 _ 64 ____ 216 _____ 412

 

Stebo __________________76 _ 50 _ 60 ____ 186 ____ 30 _ 96 _ 90 ____ 216 _____ 402

wxdude64 ______________ 76 _ 52 _ 72 ____ 200 ____ 66 _ 88 _ 44 ____ 198 _____ 398

BKViking _______________ 78 _ 56 _ 68 ____ 202 ____ 60 _ 94 _ 64 ____ 218 __ 420

___________ (-6%) ______ 73 _ 53 _ 64 ____ 190 ____ 56 _ 88 _ 60 ____ 204 _____ 394

dmillz25 ________________72 _ 54 _ 60 ____ 186 ____ 20 _100_ 80 ____ 200 _____ 386

neckbeard93 ____________ 58 _ 46 _ 58 ____ 162 ____ 82 _ 50 _ 54 ____ 186 _____ 348

hudsonvalley21 __________ 70 _ 38 _ 34 ____ 142 ____ 46 _ 88 _ 60 ____ 194 _____ 336

so_whats_happening _____ 54 _ 38 _ 54 ____ 146 ____ 38 _ 90 _ 62 ____ 190 _____ 336

RJay ___________________60 _ 30 _ 40 ____ 130 ____ 20 _ 88 _ 50 ____ 158 _____ 288

Roger Smith ____________ 40 _ 32 _ 40 ____ 112 ____ 44 _ 60 _ 60 ____ 164 _____ 276

 

Provisional scoring for May 2017, western and all nine contests

 

FORECASTER _________ DEN_PHX_SEA ______ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank )

 

so_whats_happening ____ 58 _ 94 _ 98 _______232 _________ 568 (=13)

 

Normal ________________ 90 _ 80 _ 60 _______230 _________ 720 (= 1)

 

Roger Smith ____________54 _ 76 _ 96 _______ 226 _________ 502 (=16)

RodneyS _______________60 _ 76 _ 88 _______ 224 _________678 (= t1)

H2OTown__WX _________ 84 _ 58 _ 70 _______ 212 _________ 676 (= 3 )

Stebo _________________ 90 _ 90 _ 30 _______ 210 _________ 612 (= 8)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 92 _ 74 _ 40 _______ 206 _________ 678 (= t1)

Tom __________________48 _ 58_ 100 _______ 206 _________628 (= 6)

blazess556 _____________94 _ 70 _ 38 _______ 202 _________ 654 (= 4)

 

Consensus _____________ 58 _ 60 _ 82 _______ 200 _________ 612 (= t8)

 

hudsonvalley21 _________52 _ 68 _ 78 _______ 198 _________ 534 (=15)

SD ___________________ 80 _ 60 _ 50 _______ 190 _________ 620 (= 7) 

dmillz25 _______________60 _ 60 _ 70 _______ 190 _________ 576 (=11)

CCM __________________ 66 _ 40 _ 78 _______ 184 _________ 608 (= 9)

BKViking ______________ 42 _ 60 _ 90 _ 192

___________ (-6%) _____ 39 _ 56 _ 85 _______ 180 _________ 574 (=12)

RJay __________________ 30 _ 50 _ 98 _______ 178 _________ 466 (=18)

wxallannj ______________ 36 _ 34 _ 84 _______ 154 _________ 604 (=10)

wxdude64 _____________ 50 _ 38 _ 62 _______ 150 _________ 548 (=14)

Damage in Tolland _______30 _ 20 _ 98 _______ 148 _________ 650 (= 5)

neckbeard93 ___________ 82 _ 12 _ 28 _______ 122 _________ 470 (=17)

____________________________________________________

(ranks of consensus and normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters, or each other).

Annual update will follow around 25th, so far it looks like the race might be tightening up as most of the higher scores this month come from the middle of the pack. 

 

 

 

 

 

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<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-May) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 26 for provisional May scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Jan-May are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. (May best scores are marked with asterisks until confirmed)

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 _____245 _206 _206 __657___284 _254 _289__827___1484 _1*01.2*11..1..2*_ Jan 

 2 RJay _______________210 _235_236 __681 ___217 _284 _295__796 ___1477__122.200..2..2_Feb,Apr

 3 blazess556 __________227 _233 _246__706___254 _231 _235 __720 ___1426 __001.000

 4 BKViking ____________188 _192 _211__591 ___204 _272 _223 __699 ___1290 __000.001

 5 dmillz25 ____________184 _175 _184 __543 ___206 _270 _266 __742 ___1285 __100.11*1

  

 6 Consensus __________178 _162 _179 __519 ___200 _281 _275 __756 ___1275

 

 6 Damage in Tolland ____165 _161 _170 __496 ___232 _267 _248 __747 ___1243 __1*01*.010..1*.0__ May*

 7 wxallannj ___________ 187 _176 _206 __569 ___119 _275 _274 __668 ___1237 __000.011

 8 wxdude64 __________ 235 _146 _179 __560 ___206 _221 _194 __621 ___1181 __110.000..1.0

 9 Stebo ______________ 179 _159 _172 __510 ___154 _290_224 __568 ___1178 __000.001*

10 Tom _______________ 203 _157 _165 __525 ___166 _236 _225 __627 ___1152 __000.100

11 RodneyS ____________186 _126 _128 __440 ___219 _187 _305 __711 ___1151 __011.101*..0..2* _ Mar 

12 SD _________________194 _163 _175 __532 ___208 _213 _196 __617 ___1149 __000.01*0

13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 175 _145 _162 __482 ___198 _244 _223 __665 ___1147

14 H2Otown_WX ________155 _188 _198 __541 ___122 _247 _211 __580 ___1121 __01*1*.001

 

15 Normal _____________ 198 _161 _166 __525 ___183 _ 92 _156 __ 431 ___ 956 ___010.001*.0.1*

 

15 Neckbeard93*_________80 _ 78 _107 __265 ___234 _160 _212 __606 ___ 871

16 Roger Smith _________106 _ 99 _ 62 __267 ___130 _120 _241 __575 ___ 842

17 so_whats_happening#_119 _ 83 _ 92 __294 ____66 _190 _165 __421 ___ 715

18 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ___ 25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 

19 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ___ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-May 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _______________302 _350 _411___1063 __ 1 0 0 _ Jan ____ 2540 ( = 1) ___ FEB, APR

 2 Roger Smith _________257 _305 _440 ___1002 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb ____ 1844 (= 15)  

 3 DonSutherland.1 _____ 347 _349 _300 ___ 996 __ 2 0 0 __________2480 ( = 2) ___ JAN, MAY*

 4 H20TownWx _________339 _288 _361 ___ 988 __ 0 0 1 __________ 2109 ( = 8) 

 5 wxallannj ___________ 258 _361 _364 ___ 983 __ 0 1 1 __________2220 ( = 5)  

 

 5 Consensus ___________269 _333 _378 ___ 980 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2255 ( = 4)

 

 6 dmillz25 ____________ 274 _291 _412 ___ 977 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____ 2262 ( = 3) 

 7 Tom ________________201 _345 _396 ___ 942 __ 0 0 1* _________2094  ( = 9)

 8 BKViking ____________208 _296 _401 ___ 905 _________________ 2195 ( = 6)

 9 RodneyS ____________254 _361 _308 ___ 923 __ 0 1 0 __________ 2074 ( = 10) ___  MAR,MAY*

10 Damage in Tolland ____214 _308 _365 ___ 887 _________________ 2130 ( = 7)

 

11 SD_________________ 266 _293 _302 ___ 861 ________________ 2010 ( = 12)

12 wxdude64 ___________233 _284 _322 ___ 839 ________________ 2020 ( = 11)

13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 213 _284 _328 ___ 825 ________________ 1972 ( = 14)

 

14 Normal _____________ 246 _258 _320 ___ 824 ________________ 1780 ( = 16)

 

15 so_whats_happening#_235_283 _288 ____ 806 __ 0 1 0 _ Mar,May* _1521 ( = 16)

t16 Stebo _____________ 211 _274 _312 ___ 797 __ 0 1*0 __________ 1975 ( = 13) 

t16 blazess556 _________ 246^_279^_272__ 797 __ 1*0 0 __________ 2223 ( = 4)

17 Neckbeard93* _______ 279 _173 _105 ___ 557 __ 1 0 0 __________ 1428 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 __________ 1176 ( = 18)

19 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 _________________ 1055 (= 19)

 

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr) @ two months missed (Mar, Apr)

^ one point deducted on these scores for Blazess556 (late in Jan) total of 2, (0,2)

 March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

April late penalty deductions:

... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18).

May late penalty deductions:

... BKViking lost 38 (26, 12).

 

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

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