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Roger Smith

May 2017 temperature forecast (and seasonal max for 2017) contest

26 posts in this topic

For the regular temperature forecast contest in May, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normal values at

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(late penalties after 06z May 1st at 1% per 2h to 18z May 2 and then 1% per hour)

Also, regular entrants can add seasonal max forecasts any time before May 15, a separate table will be developed from those predictions after May 15 so no requirement to repost, just edit them in if you want. Anyone who wants to enter just the seasonal max contest is welcome to do so in this thread before end of May 15th. 

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DCA +2.5, 103

NYC +2.5, 100

BOS +2.0, 98

ORD +3.0, 103

ATL +2.6, 102

IAH + 2.5, 103

DEN + 3.0, 100

PHX  +1.5, 118

SEA + 1.9, 95

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DCA +1.4  102

NYC +1.2  99

BOS +0.9  97

ORD +1.1 104

ATL +1.9  104

IAH + 1.7  102

DEN + 2.1  101

PHX  +1.1  117

SEA + 2.0  96

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DCA +1.3  100

NYC +1.0   97

BOS +0.3   97

ORD +1.5  95

ATL +1.8   100 

IAH +2.0   103

DEN +1.2   102

PHX +2.0  119

SEA +3.1  93

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DCA +1.3   97

NYC +0.6  97

BOS  -1.2  95

ORD +2.1  98

ATL +2.2 100

IAH +1.6 103

DEN +2.7  103

PHX +2.3 117

SEA +1.2  94

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DCA +0.5, 103

NYC +0.6, 101

BOS +0.5, 100

ORD -0.9, 99

ATL -0.2, 100

IAH -1.0, 106

DEN -0.1, 97

PHX +0.3, 117

SEA -1.0, 87

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DCA: +2.6 ... 101

NYC: +1.7 ... 100

BOS: +1.1 ... 98

ORD: --1.9 ... 96

ATL: --0.5 ... 102

IAH: +2.3 ... 103

DEN: --1.4 ... 98

PHX: +3.4 ... 118

SEA: --1.6 ... 89

 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0      1.0    0.5          0.5      2.0     2.0           0.5     1.0    -0.5

104    100   97           96      103     107           96       116    92

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DCA +0.8, 98

NYC +0.6, 97

BOS +1.1, 97

ORD -1.3, 97

ATL -0.5, 99

IAH +0.5, 104

DEN +1.5, 98

PHX +0.2, 116

SEA +1.4,  92

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+3.5 __ +2.4 __ +2.0 ____ +1.8 __ +4.0 __ +2.0 ____ +1.8 __ +0.2 __ +1.8

102 ___ 97 ____ 98 ______ 99 ____ 101 ___ 108 _____ 110 ___ 120 ___ 100

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DCA...NYC...BOS               ORD...IAH...ATL        DEN...PHX...SEA

-0.7...-1.0...-0.9                 +1.4...+2.8...+1.7    +0.3...+1.1...+0.5

98     96     92                    100      106    103     95      118      87

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Late, but in .. 

 

DCA +1.6 101

NYC +1.2  98

BOS +0.6  97

ORD +1.0 99

ATL +1.7  99

IAH + 1.8 100

DEN + 2.4 102

PHX  +1.0 117

SEA + 1.5   96

 

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Table of forecasts for May 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith ____________ +3.5_ +2.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +4.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +0.2_ +1.8

so_whats_happening _____ +2.8_ +2.1_ +1.3 ___ +2.1_ +2.5_ +1.9 ___ +1.6_ --0.3_ +1.4

neckbeard93 ____________ +2.6_ +1.7_ +1.1 ___ --1.9--0.5_ +2.3 ___ --1.4+3.4--1.6

RJay ___________________+2.5_ +2.5_ +2.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.6_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +1.5_ +1.9

hudsonvalley21 __________ +2.0_ +2.1_ +2.3 ___ +1.7_ +1.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.9_ +0.6_ +0.9

SD ____________________ +2.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.5_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ --0.5

dmillz25 ________________+1.9_ +1.3_ +1.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5

Stebo __________________+1.7_ +1.5_ +1.0 ___ +2.5_ +1.8_ --0.5 ___ --1.0_ --0.5_ --1.5

wxdude64 ______________ +1.7_ +1.4_ +0.4 ___ +0.7_ +2.6_ +2.8 ___ +2.0_ +2.1_ +0.1

 

Consensus ______________+1.7_ +1.2_ +0.8 ___ +1.3_ +1.9_ +1.8 ___ +1.6_ +1.0_ +1.1

 

BKViking ___ (-6%) ______ +1.6_ +1.2_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.7_ +1.8 ___ +2.4_ +1.0_ +1.5

Tom ___________________+1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9 ___ +1.1_ +1.9_ +1.7 ___ +2.1_ +1.1_ +2.0

CCM ___________________+1.3_ +1.0_ +0.3 ___ +1.5_ +1.8_ +2.0 ___ +1.2_ +2.0_ +3.1

wxallannj _______________+1.3_ +0.6_ --1.2 ___ +2.1_ +2.2_ +1.6 ___ +2.7_ +2.3_ +1.2 

RodneyS ________________+0.8_ +0.6_ +1.1 ___ --1.3_ --0.5_ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +0.2_ +1.4

blazess556 ______________ +0.7_ +0.8_ +0.6 ___ --0.7_ --0.4_ --1.1 ___ --0.2_ +0.5_ --1.1

DonSutherland.1 _________+0.5_ +0.6_ +0.5 ___ --0.9_ --0.2_ --1.0 ___ --0.1_ +0.3_ --1.0

Damage in Tolland _______ +0.5__ 0.0_ --1.1 ___ --1.8_ +2.5_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +3.0_ +1.9

 

Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

H2OTown__WX ___________--0.7_ --1.0_ --0.9 ___ +1.4_ +1.7_ +2.8 ___ +0.3_ +1.1_ +0.5

 

With 18 forecasts (plus Normal) the median for Consensus is average of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts.

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, and when Normal is lowest, it changes color to purple from its usual green. This month we have a few below normal forecasts for each location. 

Also, welcome to CCM. ... The seasonal max forecasts will be tabulated on the 16th, feel free everyone to edit or add your forecasts by end of 15th, I won't be gathering these until the 16th so no particular need to mention an edit. As to the forecasts, those are already cross-checked now they are in a table. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Early reports after five, ten, twelve and fifteen days ...

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (5d) _______ +4.6_ +1.1_ --2.4 ___ --6.8_ --2.9_ --3.2 ___ --2.3e_+6.7_ +2.8

________ (10d) ______ --0.7_ --2.3_ --2.8 ___ --6.6_ --2.4_ --3.3 ___ +2.8_ --0.2_ +2.1

________ (12d) ______ --2.0_ --2.7_ --3.3 ___ --5.5_ --1.2_ --2.3 ___ +2.5_ --0.2_ +1.1

________ (15d) ______ --2.3_ --3.5_ --4.0 ___ --3.4_ --0.3_ --2.2 ___ +3.6_ --0.2_ --0.1

 

________ (p22d) _____ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.2_ +1.9__ 0.0 ___ +1.2_ --1.5_ +0.4

________ (p31d) _____ +0.5__ 0.0__ 0.0 ___ --0.5_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +0.5_ --1.0_ +1.5

... next update after 18 days in a new post. Phoenix 108 F on 5th, then only 74 F on 8th.

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Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Table of entries

Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

SD _____________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92

DonSutherland.1 __________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87

blazess556 _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88

RJay ____________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95

Tom ____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96

so_whats_happening _______102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94

Roger Smith ______________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120100

dmillz25 _________________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95

Neckbeard93 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89

 

Consensus (average) _______101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93

 

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98

Stebo ___________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92

BKViking _________________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96

Damage in Tolland _________100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92

wxdude64 ________________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94

CCM ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93

RodneyS __________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92

H2O_Town__Wx ___________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87

wxallannj _________________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94

 

Max to date ___________ 93 __ 92 __ 95 ____ 87 __ 90 __ 91 ____ 86 _ 108 _ 81

 

 

 

 

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Anomaly tracker will be updated for 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 and 31 days. Earlier reports can be found two posts back. ^^

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__________ (18d) _______ --0.5_ --0.6_ --0.4 ____ --1.0_ +1.2_ --1.2 ____ +1.8_ --1.6_ --0.7

__________ (21d) _______ +0.1_ --0.2_ --0.1 ____ --1.9_ +1.9_ --0.3 ____ --0.4_ --1.8_ +0.2

 

__________ (p28d) ______ +0.7_ +0.5_ +0.4 ____ --1.5_ +1.5_ +0.5 ____ --0.8_ --0.7_ +0.9

__________ (p31d) ______ +1.5_ +1.0_ +1.0 ____ --0.5_ +2.0_ +0.5 ____ --0.5__ 0.0_ +1.5

 

Record highs of 92 and 95 in BOS on 17th-18th. 92 at NYC on 18th. 

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Provisional scoring for May 2017

Rather early but in case you're wondering how the current provisionals score (see previous post), these would be the scores ... expect some ongoing changes as this table is edited each time a provisional changes. Scores at this point are fairly close and Tom leads this portion of the contest. 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___east____ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL

 

Tom ___________________98 _ 96 _ 98 ____292 ____ 68 _ 98 _ 76 ____ 242 _____ 534

SD ____________________ 90_100_ 90 ____ 280 ____ 80 _100_ 70 ____ 250 _____ 530

 

Consensus ______________96 _ 96 _ 96 ____ 288 ____ 64 _ 98 _ 74 ____ 236 _____ 524

 

RodneyS _______________ 86 _ 92 _ 98 ____ 276 ____ 84 _ 50 _100____ 234 _____ 510

CCM ___________________96 _100 _ 86 ____ 282 ____ 60 _ 96 _ 70 ____ 226 _____ 508

dmillz25 ________________92 _ 94 _100____ 286 ____ 30 _100_90 ____ 220 _____ 506

Stebo __________________96 _ 90 _100____ 286 ____ 40 _ 96 _ 80 ____ 216 _____ 502

wxdude64 ______________ 96 _ 92 _ 88 ____ 276 ____ 76 _ 88 _ 54 ____ 218 _____ 494

blazess556 ______________84 _ 96 _ 92 ____ 272 ____ 96 _ 52 _ 68 ____ 216 _____ 488

BKViking _______________ 98 _ 96 _ 92 ____ 286 ____ 70 _ 94 _ 74 ____ 238 __ 524

___________ (-6%) ______ 92 _ 90 _ 86 ____ 268 ____ 66 _ 88 _ 70 ____ 224 _____ 492

DonSutherland.1 _________ 80 _ 92 _ 90 ____ 262 ____ 92 _ 56 _ 70 ____ 218 _____ 480

 

Normal _________________70 _ 80 _ 80 ____ 230 ____ 90 _ 60 _ 90 ____ 240 _____ 470

 

wxallannj _______________96 _ 92 _ 56 ____ 244 ____ 48 _ 96 _ 78 ____ 222 _____ 466 

hudsonvalley21 __________ 90 _ 78 _ 74 ____ 242 ____ 56 _ 88 _ 70 ____ 214 _____ 456

so_whats_happening _____ 74 _ 78 _ 94 ____ 246 ____ 48 _ 90 _ 72 ____ 210 _____ 456

neckbeard93 ____________ 78 _ 86 _ 98 ____ 262 ____ 72 _ 50 _ 64 ____ 186 _____ 448

Damage in Tolland _______ 80 _ 80 _ 58 ____ 218 ____ 74 _ 90 _ 60 ____ 224 _____ 442

RJay ___________________80 _ 70 _ 80 ____ 230 ____ 30 _ 88 _ 60 ____ 178 _____ 408

H2OTown__WX __________ 56 _ 60 _ 62 ____ 178 ____ 62 _ 94 _ 74 ____ 230 _____ 408

Roger Smith ____________ 60 _ 72 _ 80 ____ 212 ____ 54 _ 60 _ 70 ____ 184 _____ 396

 

Provisional scoring for May 2017, western and all nine contests

 

FORECASTER _________ DEN_PHX_SEA ______ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank )

 

Normal ________________ 90 _100 _ 70 _______260_________ 690 (= 11)

 

RodneyS _______________60 _ 96 _98 _______254 _________764 ( = 1 )

so_whats_happening ____ 58 _ 94 _ 98 _______ 250 _________ 696 (= 10)

Roger Smith ___________ 54 _ 96 _ 94 _______ 244 _________ 640 (= 15)

H2OTown__WX _________ 84 _ 78 _ 80 _______ 242 _________ 650 ( = t13)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 92 _ 94 _ 50 _______ 236 _________ 716 (= 7 )

blazess556 _____________94 _ 90 _ 48 _______ 232 _________ 720 (= 6 )

 

Consensus _____________ 58 _ 80 _ 92 _______ 230 _________ 754 ( = 2)

 

hudsonvalley21 _________52 _ 88 _ 88 _______ 228 _________ 684 ( = 11)

SD ___________________ 80 _ 80 _ 60 _______ 220 _________ 750 ( = t2) 

dmillz25 _______________60 _ 80 _ 80 _______ 220 _________ 726 ( = 4 )

Stebo _________________90 _ 90 _ 40 _______ 220 _________ 722 ( = 5 )

Tom __________________ 48 _ 78 _ 90 _______ 216 _________750 ( = t2)

BKViking ______________ 42 _ 80 _100 _ 222

___________ (-6%) _____ 39 _ 75 _ 94 _______ 208 _________ 700 (= 9 )

CCM __________________ 66 _ 60 _ 68 _______ 194 _________ 702 (= 8 )

RJay __________________ 30 _ 70 _ 92 _______ 192 _________ 600 (= t17)

wxallannj ______________ 36 _ 54 _ 94 _______ 184 _________ 650 (= t13)

wxdude64 _____________ 50 _ 58 _ 72 _______ 180 _________ 674 ( = 12)

Damage in Tolland _______30 _ 40 _ 92 _______ 162 _________ 604 (= 15)

neckbeard93 ___________ 82 _ 32 _ 38 _______ 152 _________ 600 (= t17)

____________________________________________________

(ranks of consensus and normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters, or each other).

Annual update will follow around 25th, so far it looks like the race might be tightening up as most of the higher scores this month come from the middle of the pack. 

 

 

 

 

 

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