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MattPetrulli

April 5-6 Severe Threat

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59 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

It seems like all the classic Dixie Alley sweet spots are in the line of fire tomorrow... Huntsville, Birmingham, etc.

Unless the spc shifts northwest the cities are more like Atlanta, Gadsden, Anniston  etc...   sweet spot looks like just east of Birmingham to just west of Atlanta across I-20.  

 

Edited

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9 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Unless the spc shifts northwest the cities are more like Atlanta, Gadsden, Anniston  etc...   sweet spot looks like just east of Birmingham to just west of Atlanta across I-20.  

 

Edited

Didn't that area get hit hard enough yesterday ? Geez. I can definitely say that people in Carrollton will be prepared tomorrow. I've heard of grocery stores being packed like its the day before a snowstorm.

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I get his point but the public understands a rating of 1-10 a lot better than they understand arbitrary names with attached awkward probabilities from the SPC.

I have to disagree sir.  The SPC has just recently changed the system to make it easier for the public to understand.  The issue has been studied and the system in place now is the best answer.  JMO. 

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11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I have to disagree sir.  The SPC has just recently changed the system to make it easier for the public to understand.  The issue has been studied and the system in place now is the best answer.  JMO. 

I know this isn't the place for this discussion but to me the order of marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high isn't intuitive at all.

If it was the NWS wouldn't have to post graphics every time explaining it. 

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I know this isn't the place for this discussion but to me the order of marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high isn't intuitive at all.

If it was the NWS wouldn't have to post graphics every time explaining it. 

Enhanced sounds like stronger wording to me than moderate but maybe that's just me.

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11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I have to disagree sir.  The SPC has just recently changed the system to make it easier for the public to understand.  The issue has been studied and the system in place now is the best answer.  JMO. 

I don't particularly care for the weather channel. However, Dr. Forbes' work is very reputable and I must say that the large majority of the population understand a 1-10 scale much better. The Tor-Con rating has become a household term, even if it is not recognized by everyone in the weather business.

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4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I don't particularly care for the weather channel. However, Dr. Forbes' work is very reputable and I must say that the large majority of the population understand a 1-10 scale much better. The Tor-Con rating has become a household term, even if it is not recognized by everyone in the weather business.

Torcon can be a useful tool paired with the SPC outlooks.  I agree with you there.  I'm pretty sure this topic has been debated a lot on these forums.  I'm not going to be part of a long derail on the topic either.  So I'll end it here. 

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26 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I have to disagree sir.  The SPC has just recently changed the system to make it easier for the public to understand.  The issue has been studied and the system in place now is the best answer.  JMO. 

A scale using words like Slight, Enhanced, and Moderate is not the best possible answer, all it takes is a glance of social media comments to see that. Patrick Marsh said in a Tweet the other day they were putting more emphasis on a 1-5 number scale instead of words, and that makes much more sense to me.

Better to stick on analyzing tomorrow's event instead of Tor:con/SPC debate though.

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 The problem with Torcon is it it is very arbitrary between the numbers. What is the difference between a six and a seven? They're not percentages and it's not really explained very well what the qualitative and quantitative difference is between the different levels. It just seems arbitrary. 

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Just now, CryHavoc said:

So... this got quiet.  Anyone have an update?  Was thinking we'd see a HIGH risk issued by now, it's less than 24 hours out...

Next SPC Update isn't until 2 AM eastern, most of the 0Z model suite isn't out yet.

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3 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

So... this got quiet.  Anyone have an update?  Was thinking we'd see a HIGH risk issued by now, it's less than 24 hours out...

Unless any new alarms go off between now and then, I think they'll wait to see how the morning convection plays out before upgrading to a high risk.  That being said, as of now I don't see a whole lot that would preclude a high risk being issued at some point in the next 24 hrs.

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Unless any new alarms go off between now and then, I think they'll wait to see how the morning convection plays out before upgrading to a high risk.  That being said, as of now I don't see a whole lot that would preclude a high risk being issued at some point in the next 24 hrs.


Yup, I don't see it happening until 8am, but we shall see. As it is now the morning convection isn't supposed to make much difference in reference to the afternoon stuff anyway. There very well may be sig severe overnight too.

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1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:


Yup, I don't see it happening until 8am, but we shall see. As it is now the morning convection isn't supposed to make much difference in reference to the afternoon stuff anyway. There very well may be sig severe overnight too.

Yeah, you're right.....it'll be interesting to see how the first wave of storms play out as to how intense they are.  On a side note, where in the world are all the mets?  I know there's way more snow lovers on here and all, but man, a major severe threat and no input from anybody?  Where's Cheeznado, AbsoluteZero......anybody?

- Buck

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Tricky forecast in store, somewhat. There are two probable scenarios and they hinge on morning convective activity. Most guidance seems to be aggressive on AM convective activity which veers the low level flow and reduces SRH and tornado potential later in the day. It almost seems like this is being overdone.. Both from a convection standpoint and impacts, but the little guidance I've looked at all seem to do it. No way they go high tonight. That will be something to defer until morning convection and impacts are made clear.

 

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Lots of schools closing in Central and West Georgia. My university hasn't thus far, of course. 

The morning-mid afternoon round will be interesting. Lots of juice below the warm front. Any cells that can get some some space between them may cause some early surprises.

Can't wait to see SPC Day 1 coming up at 2AM. Like others have said I would imagine they may go High Risk in the morning and not tonight. 

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Reed Timmer doing Reed Timmer things. He may very well be right, but I just don't see the need in saying that. 

 

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Something I've noticed in the past is some of the worst tornadoes tend to develop along the warm front. Look at the turning with height across GA and SC at the different levels, absolutely insane and I would look for the warm front to really focus the highest threat of tornadoes. 

IMG_0385.PNG

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Reed Timmer doing Reed Timmer things. He may very well be right, but I just don't see the need in saying that. 

 

 

 

Hate to say I think he's going to be right, but lol at 50 tornadoes again. To the comment about morning convection maybe inhibiting the event, I just don't see it happening. NOT comparing this to 4/27, parameters aren't as crazy as that day, I think it's going to pan out like that day went. The morning stuff is just going to enhance later in the day. Hopefully there isn't anywhere near the type of early morning damage as that day.

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5 hours ago, Upper Level LOL said:

 The problem with Torcon is it it is very arbitrary between the numbers. What is the difference between a six and a seven? They're not percentages and it's not really explained very well what the qualitative and quantitative difference is between the different levels. It just seems arbitrary. 

It's a number expressing the probability of a tornado occurring within 50 miles of point. A 6 is 60%, 7 is 70%, and so on. To convert TORCON to SPC use the formula:

SPC = 1 - (1-TORCON/10)^.25

Unless he's updated it the TORCON for the Atlanta area is 7. So this downscales to an SPC probability of 26%...pretty close to high risk thresholds.

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Most concern tomorrow IMO TN north into the Ohio Valley, aside from the wf play in GA. Winds across AL into southern GA look fairly meridional. Not saying it's not possible w/ adjustments in models or OFB from morning convection.

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I just wanted to request that maybe you guys included Southern Va in the maps you post. I would much appreciate it. We are kind of stuck between the SE and MA and have a hard time finding information out for areas of this part of Va. Thank you so much for anyone willing to do so.

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