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Chambana

ENSO 2017 Discussion.

36 posts in this topic

Lots of things to iron out over the coming months, including the infamous spring barrier forecast. But as of now we are under an El Niño watch with a 50-55% chance of an El Niño event for 2017-2018. 

6 models have El Niño developing by July 2017. ENSO regions 1+2 are reading at 2.6 C, meanwhile regions 4, 3.4 remain cool. 

Interesting ENSO event unfolding that's for sure. Never in recorded history have we gone from super El Niño, to weak La Niña, back to El Niño. 

Done some research and it possibly happened from 1828-1830, but of course we will never know. 

 

Discuss.

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El Nino development so quickly after the last event with the Nina in between would certainly be unusual.  We had Nino conditions lingering into Spring 2016 so it's possible that we go from Nino to Nina to Nino in less than 2 years.

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

El Nino development so quickly after the last event with the Nina in between would certainly be unusual.  We had Nino conditions lingering into Spring 2016 so it's possible that we go from Nino to Nina to Nino in less than 2 years.

Exactly the only closest match would be 83-84, 84-85. Which was Weak La Niña to neutral. And this winter acted nothing like 83-84.

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I must preface this by saying I have no idea what ENSO is, what it means or any of this stuff. I am curious about the wording in the OP. Isn't a 50 to 55% chance essentially a coin-toss? Kind of like saying, it might happen but then it might not? Not a very efficient methodology.

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1 hour ago, bowtie` said:

I must preface this by saying I have no idea what ENSO is, what it means or any of this stuff. I am curious about the wording in the OP. Isn't a 50 to 55% chance essentially a coin-toss? Kind of like saying, it might happen but then it might not? Not a very efficient methodology.

It's essentially a coin toss if there are only 2 potential outcomes, but there are 3 in this case:  El Nino, La Nina, Neutral.  So a 50-55% chance of El Nino means that it's favored.

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The CFS has backed off dramatically on El Nino strength and has more of a weak Nino or even neutral conditions. Meanwhile the JAMSTEC is gung ho.  

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5 hours ago, buckeye said:

Can't recall where I read it, but there were whispers of a potential weak to mod el-nino as a growing possibility.   Great, another winter watching storms slide under us.

Until the subsurface cooling goes away I can't buy more than a weak Nino. Of course there is plenty of time to change things.

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Enso is always only one factor and the weather never follows a script, but lets just say I'd definitely like my odds for a snowy 2017-18 with a weak nino and declining sunspots.

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On 5/15/2017 at 6:17 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Enso is always only one factor and the weather never follows a script, but lets just say I'd definitely like my odds for a snowy 2017-18 with a weak nino and declining sunspots.

A MEGA el nino will tip the scale in favor of a crappy winter, we have seen it happen during each of the last 3 super ninos.

But... Anything besides a super nino will result in more of a toss up.

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On 5/17/2017 at 2:54 PM, Jonger said:

A MEGA el nino will tip the scale in favor of a crappy winter, we have seen it happen during each of the last 3 super ninos.

But... Anything besides a super nino will result in more of a toss up.

2015-16 Super Nino was the snowiest for SCMI since 72-73. Only FAIL category was duration of snow that fell. Within a few days of a storm, it was history. #MAwinter it was.

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4 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

How can it be that we went from a good chance at an El Nino, to now a very good chance at a La Nina? Is it that unpredictable? 

Pretty much

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Continuing trade winds over the next 2 weeks, as they have been for the most part since summer began, will aid in strengthening the current La Nina over the next few weeks. 

u_anom_30.5S-5N.thumb.gif.a72e74bec09dfbb0b13e387e2600ee1f.gif

As well, a nice pool of cold subsurface anomalies should make there way to the surface soon. Atmospherically speaking, the pattern is quite evident of a La Nina and were currently seeing that across North America with the upcoming summer like warmth in the East and cold fall like conditions out West. A strong weak La Nina imo is definitely possible. 

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

A strong weak La Nina imo is definitely possible. 

Definitely looking possible, if not likely. Models have been trending stronger to the point that a moderate Nina can't be ruled out, even using trimonthly values.

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Please god not another weak La Niña (2011-2012, 2016-2017). I would be okay with a moderate Niña, a 2010-2011 repeat would be okay with me, even without a ghd type storm. 

December 2010 was awesome, cold, snowy, even had a WSW on Christmas Eve if I remember correctly. Fun winter. 

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16 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Please god not another weak La Niña (2011-2012, 2016-2017). I would be okay with a moderate Niña, a 2010-2011 repeat would be okay with me, even without a ghd type storm. 

December 2010 was awesome, cold, snowy, even had a WSW on Christmas Eve if I remember correctly. Fun winter. 

Trends are going in the direction of a moderate nina. Would be great for most of the region if that pans out.

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2 hours ago, Chambana said:

Please god not another weak La Niña (2011-2012, 2016-2017). I would be okay with a moderate Niña, a 2010-2011 repeat would be okay with me, even without a ghd type storm. 

December 2010 was awesome, cold, snowy, even had a WSW on Christmas Eve if I remember correctly. Fun winter. 

Last winter cost me a fortune, had to waste so much money on gas chasing snow in Canada. Just give me average.

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On 9/13/2017 at 7:43 AM, pondo1000 said:

How can it be that we went from a good chance at an El Nino, to now a very good chance at a La Nina? Is it that unpredictable? 

Most long range forecasting is junk science. The farmers almanac provides almost the same verification and they use caterpillar hairs and other nonsense.

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Nino 1+2 and 3 plummeting off another cliff recently.

Subsurface cold pool is expansive and strong trades near the dateline continue (with some extensions to the east), don't see much reason that moderate Nina conditions aren't reachable by November/December if this type of pace continues. This is the type of forcing that really struggled to take hold late last summer and last fall.

Last five mod+ strength Ninas: 2010-11, 2007-08, 1999-00, 1998-99, 1988-89. Four out of those five were followed by busy (in some cases, explosive) severe seasons. Also, several of those were very busy winters for this sub-forum given the tendency for cutters and a strong polar jet enhancing clippers.

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4 hours ago, Jonger said:

Most long range forecasting is junk science. The farmers almanac provides almost the same verification and they use caterpillar hairs and other nonsense.

LMAO! 

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4 hours ago, Jonger said:

Most long range forecasting is junk science. The farmers almanac provides almost the same verification and they use caterpillar hairs and other nonsense.

Oh look another thing you don't understand so you mock it. Long range forecasting has merit for trends, it isn't 100% fool proof but it is a starting point for an idea of an upcoming season. 

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32 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Oh look another thing you don't understand so you mock it. Long range forecasting has merit for trends, it isn't 100% fool proof but it is a starting point for an idea of an upcoming season. 

Oh, I understand it... I just don't think there is enough technology to put any faith in it yet.

The seasonal forecasts bust as often as they pan out.

February 2015 was depicted as above normal over the eastern US within 3 weeks of Feb 1st 2015.

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25 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Oh, I understand it... I just don't think there is enough technology to put any faith in it yet.

The seasonal forecasts bust as often as they pan out.

February 2015 was depicted as above normal over the eastern US within 3 weeks of Feb 1st 2015.

Extreme events happen...

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41 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Oh, I understand it... I just don't think there is enough technology to put any faith in it yet.

The seasonal forecasts bust as often as they pan out.

February 2015 was depicted as above normal over the eastern US within 3 weeks of Feb 1st 2015.

Yep, and last year's long range winter indicators & calls were looking great....til the wheels came off right about Christmas. But, for the record I'm still drawn in like a moth to flames, lol

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I guess that I'd rather depend on an attempt at a long range forecast through science than reading a caterpillar's butt or whatever.

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