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March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

ILN is calling for almost all rain for KDAY tomorrow into the evening and the 850s never gets above -5C?

sn10_acc.conus.png

some of the latest guidance coming in is starting to show an enhanced stripe in central Ohio with more of a ne to sw orientation, riding right along i-71.  The screw hole has shifted more towards the southeast part of the state.   It looks like the low starts to dry out over IN and then strengthens a bit over southeast OH before the transfer.   The euro sort of showed this as well but not as far sw into OH.

...and then there is the gfs....yaaaaawn :lol:

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I noticed this here too.   NAM was showing rain in places where the 700, 850, were all well below normal the entire time.   Surface temps were slightly above freezing but nothing more than a couple of degrees.

Maybe a met can chime in?

I'm not a met or anything, but poking around some forecast soundings for central OH does reveal a slightly thicker near-surface warm layer than areas further west.  12km and 4km NAM soundings both show temps above freezing to 200-300 meters for a time tomorrow.  Areas west of there that I pointed out generally have the above freezing layer at <200 meters.  The central OH soundings may have just deep enough of a warm layer to melt away much of the snow if it isn't precipitating very vigorously.  Looks like that near-surface warm layer quickly erodes from the top down as heavier precip moves in later in the afternoon, and should change any mixing quickly to snow.  

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

We have full sampling for these 12z runs and so far the NAM, GFS, RGEM and GGEM have come in a bit weaker/farther south with the low across the Ohio Valley.  The changes at 500mb are rather negligible but the shortwave is a tad bit flatter...it's well within the realm of things that could easily trend the other way later but this is the first run where the shortwave is fully sampled so I wouldn't discount that trend. 

 

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

A couple more models this morning have followed the 00z and added a relative dry pocket over east-central Iowa.  The general trend has been to maintain the 0.50-1.00" bull's-eye over sw MN/nw IA, but bring down the qpf a bit around here.  NWS has 5-7.  I'm thinking 3-6".  I need 4.3" to be the best snowfall of the season.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Avg precip from the new guidance for the QCA is generally in the 0.4-0.5" range.  Thinking LSRs will be around 13-15:1 tonight, and then drop off to near or even under 10:1 much of tomorrow.  The majority of the precip falls before the ratios drop, and the melting/compacting issues arise.  Original call for here/QC was 4-5", and I think I'll bump that up to 5-6".  

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A couple more models this morning have followed the 00z and added a relative dry pocket over east-central Iowa.  The general trend has been to maintain the 0.50-0.75" bull's-eye over sw MN/nw IA, but bring down the qpf a bit around here.  NWS has 5-7.  I'm thinking 3-6".  I need 4.3" to be the best snowfall of the season.

High-res models are really cranking it out over southwest MN today.  Last HRRR I looked at dropped over an inch of precip there.  Wish we could hold on to the strength of this incoming vort max a little longer lol.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTX going 3-5" here. Unlike most of our snow events this winter, it will be a long duration light snow, however I think March sun angle is irrelevant with the temperatures. Will be like a nice snow globe day probably.

I would disagree with the sun angle being irrelevant, I am actually happy most of this is coming at night because otherwise, we'd get the shaft. Light snow at this time of year has a hard time accumulating even with temps below freezing.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would disagree with the sun angle being irrelevant, I am actually happy most of this is coming at night because otherwise, we'd get the shaft. Light snow at this time of year has a hard time accumulating even with temps below freezing.

Agree.  I have no facts to back it up but it just seems common sense that even with all other components being completely equal, you would always get better accum in say early, mid January than mid March.  The sun angle argument is about angle/intensity and duration of daylight, not the temp.

OTOH, the unusual cold we've had the last couple of days will have at least cooled the ground more than you would usually see in March.  It's not like we are going from 60 degrees to snowfall.

...and all of this to judge how well my potential 2 inches will fare :lol:

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would disagree with the sun angle being irrelevant, I am actually happy most of this is coming at night because otherwise, we'd get the shaft. Light snow at this time of year has a hard time accumulating even with temps below freezing.

To add, we're not talking about muffins falling at 1-2"+ per hour rates, but fine flakes being grind out for 24+ hours.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

A bit off-topic, but it looks like the rare LES band has developed on the east side of Lake St. Clair.

It's tiny, but definitely appears to be ripping.

Wow, that's even showing up strongly on the CLE radar.  Looks very intense and has been persistent for a couple of hours. 

Edit:  That isn't showing up on satellite and the CC on both CLE's and DTX's radars appears to suggest it's not precip.  Perhaps a very large fire?  Don't farmers still burn their fields in Canada in early spring?

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Wow, that's even showing up strongly on the CLE radar.  Looks very intense and has been persistent for a couple of hours. 

Edit:  That isn't showing up on satellite and the CC on both CLE's and DTX's radars appears to suggest it's not precip.  Perhaps a very large fire?  Don't farmers still burn their fields in Canada in early spring?

Walpole Island is a Native American reservation, they always burn the phragmites this time of year. It is definitely a fire 100% as my grandparents live on Harsens Island right across the South Channel and can see the smoke.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Was hoping that with better sampling the main s/w would trend stronger and slower. Unfortunately the opposite has happened.

Assuming a whiff/near whiff this has gotta rank as one of the worst second halves of winter I've ever experienced. Even the futility winter of 11-12 had more dusting-1" events scattered about.

The latest run of the CMC looked better and the Euro is holding its ground, albeit likely overdone.

 

I'm thinking 2-4", 4" being towards Oakville and Burlington.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

12z ECMWF. Going to bust so bad for Toronto, lol. Its literally, SREF/UKIE/ECMWF vs the other models. Even without ratios, it has around 6-7" for Toronto proper.  

 

 

Can you be absolutely certain that this is going to bust, however? I agree that it is likely way overdone, but don't think 4", at least, is out of the question for the GTA.

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

It looks like southwest Minnesota will be the big winner.  Models have been locked into that for a while.  This is the second consecutive euro run that has the drier pocket over east-central Iowa.  The system appears to get an injection of moisture as it exits my area and re-juices some over Illinois.  It has a 0.50" blob near Peoria.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Can you be absolutely certain that this is going to bust, however? I agree that it is likely way overdone, but don't think 4", at least, is out of the question for the GTA.

I find it hard to believe, though it has been consistent in showing 4-8" for the GTA w/o ratios. However, every other model has downplayed the s/w and have a mere 1-3" for the GTA. Hamilton still does half decent due to LES enhancement, but besides the Euro/SREF/UKIE, there's no other model support for this ^. 

 

I'm going with a conservative forecast of 1-2" for the GTA unless 18z runs and 0z runs tonight are similar to the 12z Euro.

 

 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That disagrees with DTX's afd, they have most of it coming in the evening tomorrow. 

Issued at 1218 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

UPDATE...

12z suite has followed yesterday`s trends with a more progressive
deformation zone Monday night. In addition, improved handling of the
southern wave now that is had made it over the Rockies has allowed
for improving model consensus this morning regarding warm advection
Monday. Event now looks to span roughly 09z tonight through about
00z. Quick hit of warm advection has potential to bring decent snow
rates between 12-18z Monday. Potential would be much higher were it
not for east coast cyclogenesis interrupting warm advection over SE
Michigan. Timing of transfer of dynamics to the east coast will be
important for determining snow amounts. An updated forecast to
reflect higher pops tonight and early Monday is forthcoming. WWA
criteria not out of the question along/south of M59. Will be
considering a headline for the aftn package.
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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: 

Issued at 1218 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

UPDATE...

12z suite has followed yesterday`s trends with a more progressive
deformation zone Monday night. In addition, improved handling of the
southern wave now that is had made it over the Rockies has allowed
for improving model consensus this morning regarding warm advection
Monday. Event now looks to span roughly 09z tonight through about
00z. Quick hit of warm advection has potential to bring decent snow
rates between 12-18z Monday. Potential would be much higher were it
not for east coast cyclogenesis interrupting warm advection over SE
Michigan. Timing of transfer of dynamics to the east coast will be
important for determining snow amounts. An updated forecast to
reflect higher pops tonight and early Monday is forthcoming. WWA
criteria not out of the question along/south of M59. Will be
considering a headline for the aftn package.

If that is the case, then lower expectations. We don't need it coming during the day.

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