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North Balti Zen

March Banter Thread

2,144 posts in this topic

Yikes..glad I went to bed early. In my bones I'm feeling 3-6" with lots of mix where I sit.  Lots of work today on this Monday so thankfully my brain will be distracted from the impending dumpster fire. Good luck all

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Lol. This morning's AFD is really good, and I love the Goldilocks zone.

 
000
FXUS61 KLWX 130800
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Same story...new night...as tricky forecast continues for the I-95
corridor...where lots of conflicting signals remain among the
guidance suites. Furthermore...even small changes in the track of
the coastal low will lead to extreme shifts in snow totals (and thus
impact) where the transition line sets up. Thus...believe it is
appropriate to not make drastic changes based on any one forecast
cycle.

Coastal low will begin to develop across the Carolina coastline
later this afternoon...as cyclogenesis is induced in response to
potent digging shortwave. Low begins to track northward through the
overnight...intensifying off the DelMarVa coastline by 12z Tuesday.
Timing will be everything...if intensification is slower than
currently forecast...amounts would be less across the area.

Notable westward shift in latest guidance from ECMWF/GFS
families...which is somewhat concerning for snow totals along the I-
95 corridor. Additionally...large westward shift in 850-700 mb 1540
thickness values...suggesting mixed precipitation (sleet or rain)
could cut down on totals along the I-95 corridor. Thus...have
tapered snowfall amounts back a bit across these areas. Based on
this...and in coordination with surrounding offices...have opted to
go with a Winter Weather Advisory for the counties that were still
under the Winter Storm Watch...as confidence in warning criteria
being met is too low at this time. Added Spotsylvania and Charles
county to the Advisory as they qualify for the lower criteria for
commute timing. The morning shift can always reevaluate and see if
upgrades are warranted in certain areas...and if headlines need to
be extended into Calvert...St. Marys...and King George. The heaviest
snow is expected from 00z-15z Tuesday...and it is strongly recommend
that motorists stay of the road during this time.

Confidence is much higher in major winter storm west of I-95
(especially from northern VA up through the PA border). This is the
sweet spot (or Goldilocks Zone)...where QPF will be maximized in the
deformation zone and ptype will be all snow. Increased totals a bit
across this area with a foot are more across portions of Washington,
Frederick (MD), Carroll, N Baltimore, N Harford counties. Fully
expect snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour overnight as strong
lift develops through the dendritic growth zone.

Bulk of snowfall accumulations will begin to wind down from
southwest to northeast as wraparound precipitation pulls away from
the area Tuesday morning. However...upper low will slowly traverse
the area...so scattered snow showers remain possible through
Wednesday. Very cold overnight temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
with snowpack over the area. Additionally, melting during the day
(with mid-March sun) combined with freezing overnight will led to
slick spots redeveloping.

It is imperative to note that uncertainty continues to be tremendous
with regards to the location of the transition line. As I have
written the past few nights...our 10-50-90 products illustrate this
well. As it currently stands...for DC/Balt...10th percentile is 1-
4...50th percentile is 4-8...and 90th percentile is 10-16. Thus, it
is important to continue to follow the forecast as changes are
expected.


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24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

For most though you're still good. May have to take you up on that whiskey sledding!

Yeah, I was never worried up here. I see the r/s line has shifted west. Ugh. Sorry for those impacted.

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I see there are a lot of debbie downers in the other thread. I bet most of them live in a more favorable area than I do and I'm still pretty stoked. They have a way better shot than some of us. You never know what's going to happen. I read the discussion from LWX and I still don't know what took them so long to switch to an advisory for this area. I hope Mother Nature has something up her sleeve tonight and tomorrow. Good luck NW peeps with your snow :D 

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Can't remember the date but this is starting to remind me of a storm many years ago when leesburg got 7" and it rained inside the beltway. And just so everyone is clear I no longer live in leesburg...I'm now about 15 miles WSW of KHEF. I can basically walk to Fauquier county. Far enough west I think as my longitude is west of my old house....but just too far south. 

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13 minutes ago, Ltrain said:

I see there are a lot of debbie downers in the other thread. I bet most of them live in a more favorable area than I do and I'm still pretty stoked. They have a way better shot than some of us. You never know what's going to happen. I read the discussion from LWX and I still don't know what took them so long to switch to an advisory for this area. I hope Mother Nature has something up her sleeve tonight and tomorrow. Good luck NW peeps with your snow :D 

I think that some of their concern is for the morning commute tomorrow when the whatever quickly changes back to snow. 

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Going to be an annoying day for AA schools tomorrow.  The  impact will be different west to east in AA county more so than any other in the area.

 

Though since there's been no snow days so far, I'm sure they'll cancel anyway.

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I'm not even safe out in Reston with the 06Z NAM. 6 hours of sleet/rain, yuck.  GFS/Euro solution though and I'm all snow. 

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This storm has been a huge waste of time. I spent the last 7 days tracking a rain storm for AA county. The worse part is were stuck in a worthless cold pattern as spring starts. I'd feel a lot better if the torch was coming back in a couple days. Now we have months of 50 and foggy. Ok.. I feel better. I'm out.

 

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A lot of the times the mixing line will move southeast to northwest over the county. For instance I am pretty much due north of Annapolis by about 8 miles so if it was true east to west than I should mix at the same time but it takes a good 15 or 30 minutes for it to get to my area. A couple times Annapis would mix but I would stay all snow even though I am relatively close. 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Models were pretty bad overnight? 

They were actually pretty ok big picture. They held for most part, maybe even a hair better. Literally depends where you are. You are great I think in most scenarios. I may be ok even. Maybe.

changeover line is close, so that's the angst. Really on edge in cities. 

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Stoked for Hrrrrr related cliff jumping today :rolleyes:

This board will be unreadable for those of us on edge of changeover danger area as people post those every hour. They never seem to show good news for my area. 

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9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

This storm has been a huge waste of time. I spent the last 7 days tracking a rain storm for AA county. The worse part is were stuck in a worthless cold pattern as spring starts. I'd feel a lot better if the torch was coming back in a couple days. Now we have months of 50 and foggy. Ok.. I feel better. I'm out.

 

You'll see snow and sleet changing back to all snow. I'm in the same county you are and I've been tracking for 7 days also. No forecast mentions rain, only the precip type maps are showing rain and that is what you are going by. Look at your LWX forecast, mine doesn't even mention rain at all. It says snow mixing with and then changing to sleet and then changing back to snow around 9am and the snow could be heavy at times. The rain you see on the precip map is sleet because it's adding to the snowfall accumulation map. 

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6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

This board will be unreadable for those of us on edge of changeover danger area as people post those every hour. They never seem to show good news for my area. 

Ha, I was thinking the same thing.  

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

For most though you're still good. May have to take you up on that whiskey sledding!

Oregon ridge?... I think I am taking my boys there

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16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

They were actually pretty ok big picture. They held for most part, maybe even a hair better. Literally depends where you are. You are great I think in most scenarios. I may be ok even. Maybe.

changeover line is close, so that's the angst. Really on edge in cities. 

I see it could be a long day for mods then. Thanks. I went to bed before even the NAM was finished running, briefly checked things this morning. 

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Here is my analysis. I think it comes south. I think it is gonna be harder than expected to overcome/ erode the the cold air at the upper levels. It's cold. And it is cold northeast, North and west of the storm.

If there were a case for slightly cold verification of the models... this would be it.

Obviously weenie banter as I have no clue what I am talking about.

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10 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Here is my analysis. I think it comes south. I think it is gonna be harder than expected to overcome/ erode the the cold air at the upper levels. It's cold. And it is cold northeast, North and west of the storm.

If there were a case for slightly cold verification of the models... this would be it.

Obviously weenie banter as I have no clue what I am talking about.

Wasn't Hurricane Sandy's inland impact mitigated some by cold upper level air?

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I would like to see my region in Virginia changed to a winter weather advisory, effective immediately. I will see half of an inch of snow tonight followed by sleet then heavy soaking rain. I will see at least an inch of rain. I can't believe the NWS has not yet seen sense about Woodbridge Va. The low will track up Chesapeake Bay and overnight Temps will rise into the lower 40s tonight in Dale City.

Enjoy the heavy blowing snow in western VA and in western and northern MD tonight through tomorrow night.

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