dryslot Posted February 10, 2017 H5 closes off further east, It looked like it was going to dig further south this run Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WintersComing Posted February 10, 2017 Ya this doesn't seem to be a great run at all. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2017 Another nice run . Loving the trends Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2017 Yeah some light snow in ext ern areas. Essex county/BOS/PYM county etc. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2017 JEFFFAFA you ain't kidding about Eastern Maine, Caribou NWS Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Even snow into Boston on Sunday it seems. Looked better initially than 06z but washes out. Nice even for C?NNE still. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another nice run . Loving the trends The trend on this run sucked. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WintersComing Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another nice run . Loving the trends Seems like this trended a bit north and a bit later on development....no? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dryslot Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: JEFFFAFA you ain't kidding about Eastern Maine, Caribou NWS They had insane rates to go with the winds there Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The trend on this run sucked. I'm talking about Sunday .. not the Monday coastal Sunday is gonna be fun. Monday may just be north of you for best snow though you might still grab 2-4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morch Madness Posted February 10, 2017 We've got time. We just need this thing to close off a little sooner and further south and we'll be in business Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2017 It's a real tricky setup which is why folks SW of PSM probably are on the edge for Monday. It's definitely a Bruce Willis deal because of how late it will develop. Now Sunday could be fun regardless. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm talking about Sunday .. not the Monday coastal Oh, ok..this run was better still for that? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dryslot Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a real tricky setup which is why folks SW of PSM probably are on the edge for Monday. It's definitely a Bruce Willis deal because of how late it will develop. Now Sunday could be fun regardless. Sunday looked improved but was a tic or two warmer in the southern areas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DotRat_Wx Posted February 10, 2017 I'm not worried about the GFS tbh.. Mid levels have gotten better and better Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2017 I think the whole pattern sucks for this, Ray - to be blunt. Guys, this thing is impressive and has a tremendous amount of mechanical power ...all that, but it is too far N and always has been? That's a not a knock on any previous forecaster efforts - the quintessential question has been, 'how will this trend?' But I think the chances of that were/are intrinsically lower... Here's why. Look south ... there is a ridge over the SE U.S.. This system is entirely northern stream borne, and yes there is ridging in western Canada/Rockies post this thing being ejected SE out of that region through the weekend, but with the curvature and vorticity at larger scales (south) being diametrical in nature ...that larger scale off-set creates an immediate limitation as to how much latitude (south) this thing can gain as it passes between 90 W and 70 W... It's really a keen metaphor to think of it as a rock skipping/bouncing off a pound... that's why it's taking the N route. If there were any perturbation at all in that 35-40th parallel timed well...that would do the trick, but without it, boinnng. I don't personally have any issue with the idea SNE (even Essex CO) primarily being sand-blasted by a wind and fractured flurries. **However** , that whole progressive limitation argument can be overcome, by having this thing be very strong/stronger than recent modeling. So far over the last couple days I am not seeing an increase (sufficient) in the deeper layer mechanics of the trough evolution; I am only seeing a quicker response with the surface features (that might be giving th illusion of the former). Which isn't to say that more strength won't get relayed over land out west and then need be conserved downstream ... resulting in 'carving' out a slightly south(er) path --> blah blah ... setting into motion an earlier detonation/impact further SW. It could do that still, sure ... but until that happens, I don't have any issue with this being pretty much just a blustery day of envy as we peer up toward the Maine coast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2017 I don't think Monday is a big deal...even here. ME, diff. story. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2017 Canadian is more for Maine too on Monday. I have doubts here for Monday, hopefully some snow on Sunday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2017 We wouldn't toss that 12z GFS run. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think the whole pattern sucks for this, Ray - to be blunt. Guys, this thing is impressive and has a tremendous amount of mechanical power ...all that, but it is too far N and always has been? That's a not a knock on any previous forecaster efforts - the quintessential question has been, 'how will this trend?' But I think the chances of that were/are intrinsically lower... Here's why. Look south ... there is a ridge over the SE U.S.. This system is entirely northern stream borne, and yes there is ridging in western Canada/Rockies post this thing being ejected SE out of that region through the weekend, but with the curvature and vorticity at larger scales (south) being diametrical in nature ...that larger scale off-set creates an immediate limitation as to how much latitude (south) this thing can gain as it passes between 90 W and 70 W... It's really a keen metaphor to think of it as a rock skipping/bouncing off a pound... that's why it's taking the N route. If there were any perturbation at all in that 35-40th parallel timed well...that would do the trick, but without it, boinnng. I don't personally have any issue with the idea SNE (even Essex CO) primarily being sand-blasted by a wind and fractured flurries. **However** , that whole progressive limitation argument can be overcome, by having this thing be very strong/stronger than recent modeling. So far over the last couple days I am not seeing an increase (sufficient) in the deeper layer mechanics of the trough evolution; I am only seeing a quicker response with the surface features (that might be giving th illusion of the former). Which isn't to say that more strength won't get relayed over land out west and then need be conserved downstream ... resulting in 'carving' out a slightly south(er) path --> blah blah ... setting into motion an earlier detonation/impact further SW. It could do that still, sure ... but until that happens, I don't have any issue with this being pretty much just a blustery day of envy as we peer up toward the Maine coast. Agree 100%. I was trying to convey this yesterday and a much more succinct and less articulate manner, but was met with great resistance. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Siker Posted February 10, 2017 Liking where I stand for Sunday across all guidance at the MA/NY/VT border. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dryslot Posted February 10, 2017 12z GGEM gone wild, What a nuke! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2017 Playing off of a what Tip said, this is why I mentioned having the ULL in the SW US..stay further SW is important. If that came east, it would pump up heights. Right now, it seems that the trend has been for that to edge further SW with time which is good...but it doesn't have the latitude to really dig and develop the low further S. I guess we will see what the euro does. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z GGEM gone wild, What a nuke! Enjoy...sucks here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian is more for Maine too on Monday. I have doubts here for Monday, hopefully some snow on Sunday. Still snowing but solid hit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2017 Let's not discount the Nam seeing how well it's performed this winter Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Still snowing but solid hit. Looks like a get about 6"...not bad, as long as at doesn't trend away.. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
toller65 Posted February 10, 2017 12z GGEM gone wild, What a nuke!Storm total QPF in the 1-1.5 inch range for PWM?Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like a get about 6"...not bad, as long as at doesn't trend away.. The GEM is the northern outlier at least....so we got that going for us. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree 100%. I was trying to convey this yesterday and a much more succinct and less articulate manner, but was met with great resistance. Nuh, uh... no way, man! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
