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CoastalWx

Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Even snow into Boston on Sunday it seems. 

Looked better initially than 06z but washes out. Nice even for C?NNE still.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

JEFFFAFA you ain't kidding about Eastern Maine, Caribou NWS

IMG_20170210_105300.jpg

They had insane rates to go with the winds there

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The trend on this run sucked.

I'm talking about Sunday .. not the Monday coastal 

Sunday is gonna be fun. Monday may just be north of you for best snow though you might still grab 2-4 

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It's a real tricky setup which is why folks SW of PSM probably are on the edge for Monday. It's definitely a Bruce Willis deal because of how late it will develop. Now Sunday could be fun regardless.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a real tricky setup which is why folks SW of PSM probably are on the edge for Monday. It's definitely a Bruce Willis deal because of how late it will develop. Now Sunday could be fun regardless.

Sunday looked improved but was a tic or two warmer in the southern areas

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I think the whole pattern sucks for this, Ray - to be blunt. 

Guys, this thing is impressive and has a tremendous amount of mechanical power ...all that, but it is too far N and always has been?  That's a not a knock on any previous forecaster efforts - the quintessential question has been, 'how will this trend?'   But I think the chances of that were/are intrinsically lower... 

Here's why.  Look south ... there is a ridge over the SE U.S..  This system is entirely northern stream borne, and yes there is ridging in western Canada/Rockies post this thing being ejected SE out of that region through the weekend, but with the curvature and vorticity at larger scales (south) being diametrical in nature ...that larger scale off-set creates an immediate limitation as to how much latitude (south) this thing can gain as it passes between 90 W and 70 W...  It's really a keen metaphor to think of it as a rock skipping/bouncing off a pound... that's why it's taking the N route.   If there were any perturbation at all in that 35-40th parallel timed well...that would do the trick, but without it, boinnng.

I don't personally have any issue with the idea SNE (even Essex CO) primarily being sand-blasted by a wind and fractured flurries. 

**However** , that whole progressive limitation argument can be overcome, by having this thing be very strong/stronger than recent modeling.  So far over the last couple days I am not seeing an increase (sufficient) in the deeper layer mechanics of the trough evolution; I am only seeing a quicker response with the surface features (that might be giving th illusion of the former).    

Which isn't to say that more strength won't get relayed over land out west and then need be conserved downstream ... resulting in 'carving' out a slightly south(er) path --> blah blah ... setting into motion an earlier detonation/impact further SW.  It could do that still, sure ... but until that happens, I don't have any issue with this being pretty much just a blustery day of envy as we peer up toward the Maine coast.  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the whole pattern sucks for this, Ray - to be blunt. 

Guys, this thing is impressive and has a tremendous amount of mechanical power ...all that, but it is too far N and always has been?  That's a not a knock on any previous forecaster efforts - the quintessential question has been, 'how will this trend?'   But I think the chances of that were/are intrinsically lower... 

Here's why.  Look south ... there is a ridge over the SE U.S..  This system is entirely northern stream borne, and yes there is ridging in western Canada/Rockies post this thing being ejected SE out of that region through the weekend, but with the curvature and vorticity at larger scales (south) being diametrical in nature ...that larger scale off-set creates an immediate limitation as to how much latitude (south) this thing can gain as it passes between 90 W and 70 W...  It's really a keen metaphor to think of it as a rock skipping/bouncing off a pound... that's why it's taking the N route.   If there were any perturbation at all in that 35-40th parallel timed well...that would do the trick, but without it, boinnng.

I don't personally have any issue with the idea SNE (even Essex CO) primarily being sand-blasted by a wind and fractured flurries. 

**However** , that whole progressive limitation argument can be overcome, by having this thing be very strong/stronger than recent modeling.  So far over the last couple days I am not seeing an increase (sufficient) in the deeper layer mechanics of the trough evolution; I am only seeing a quicker response with the surface features (that might be giving th illusion of the former).    

Which isn't to say that more strength won't get relayed over land out west and then need be conserved downstream ... resulting in 'carving' out a slightly south(er) path --> blah blah ... setting into motion an earlier detonation/impact further SW.  It could do that still, sure ... but until that happens, I don't have any issue with this being pretty much just a blustery day of envy as we peer up toward the Maine coast.  

Agree 100%.

I was trying to convey this yesterday and a much more succinct and less articulate manner, but was met with great resistance.

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Playing off of a what Tip said, this is why I mentioned having the ULL in the SW US..stay further SW is important. If that came east, it would pump up heights. Right now, it seems that the trend has been for that to edge further SW with time which is good...but it doesn't have the latitude to really dig and develop the low further S. I guess we will see what the euro does.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is more for Maine too on Monday.  I have doubts here for Monday, hopefully some snow on Sunday.

Still snowing but solid hit.

 

IMG_4853.PNG

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a get about 6"...not bad, as long as at doesn't trend away..

The GEM is the northern outlier at least....so we got that going for us.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree 100%.

I was trying to convey this yesterday and a much more succinct and less articulate manner, but was met with great resistance.

Nuh, uh... no way, man!

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