Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Weenie 101. Take the model that shows the most snow and clutch it for dear life until reality rips it from you fingers. Having two globals say no Bueno can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: The GFS AND Canadian aren't even showing a light event...they're misses completely. The GFS scraps the south coast, it isn't a complete miss, the fact that H5 troughing is fairly decent for a scraping event, I think we should still watch this event cautiously optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Anthony is right though-they wind up a storm just too far offshore. Just having that is a big change. How often have we had we had this much uncertainty within 72 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Although...the NAM last year was the first to bring any of the snow north of NYC in the blizzard last January 2016. It was first and alone on that idea for quite a while..it ended up correct. Different year and different storm, so take that for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Anthony is right though-they wind up a storm just too far offshore. Just having that is a big change. Hiw often have we had we had this much uncertainty within 72 hours? Jerry you both are right, the GFS winds this storm up too far offshore for anything meaningful unless you live on the Eastern MA shoreline. Cape Cod gets a warning event with a 987mb just too far east of CHH. mY best guess is that the models start to show a much bigger storm and closer to coastline storm after 12z runs tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The CMC winds the storm up offshore, the fact that this model is finally showing a ramping up storm system is golden. We just need it to come closer to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z Para GFS (Just came out) is a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Blizz said: 18z Para GFS (Just came out) is a solid hit That should be a sign not to trust the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That should be a sign not to trust the GFS right now. Or again, this could be a sign that small difference in each model's handling of the Pacific shortwave is having large influences downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Or again, this could be a sign that small difference in each model's handling of the Pacific shortwave is having large influences downstream. Again great point, but again, it means the more amped solutions might not be that far off if the GFS and CMC show a better northern stream interaction with the southern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Again great point, but again, it means the more amped solutions might not be that far off if the GFS and CMC show a better northern stream interaction with the southern stream disturbance. I'm trying to be devil's advocate here. Just as likely is a weak and flat solution at this point. Not every difference means more amped is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm trying to be devil's advocate here. Just as likely is a weak and flat solution at this point. Not every difference means more amped is on the table. What do the GEFS means show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What do the GEFS means show? They aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: They aren't out yet. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 UKMET looks NAM-like but a little more offshore. 989mb off southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 UKIE looks big... 989 coming nne off Delmarva! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, CTWeatherFreak said: UKIE looks big... 989 coming nne off Delmarva! WOW, watch out, the EURO will likely follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: UKIE looks big... 989 coming nne off Delmarva! Also the GFS, NAM and now UKMET all 989mb lows now impacting SNE, the GFS is farthest offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Ukie is def a solid hit. Not like NAM but prob a good low end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Also the GFS, NAM and now UKMET all 989mb lows now impacting SNE, the GFS is farthest offshore. Add the GFS Para to the mix, a lot more so than the wayward GFS at this point... Strongly in our favor at this point are the strangest of cohorts: GFS Para, NAMS, and UKIE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Question for those more in the know than I, but if the H5 look on the GFS looks quite nice as some have explained, and if the upper levels drive the surface, then shouldn't we question the GFS surface depiction?? And perhaps the H5 depiction on the GFS is the first sign it's tipping its hand to a more amplified solution going forward?? Or am I all wrong on that?? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 UKIE made a pretty significant shift from 12z Precip maps only go out to 72hrs but here is the difference down south... clear as day. 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Question for those more in the know than I, but if the H5 look on the GFS looks quite nice as some have explained, and if the upper levels drive the surface, then shouldn't we question the GFS surface depiction?? And perhaps the H5 depiction on the GFS is the first sign it's tipping its hand to a more amplified solution going forward?? Or am I all wrong on that?? Lol. No you are right to assume that the GFS operational model should have had a better surface depiction if looking at H5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Blizz said: UKIE made a pretty significant shift from 12z Precip maps only go out to 72hrs but here is the difference down south... clear as day. 12z 00z Much stronger surface low with the 00z run this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GEFS looks similar to OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Blizz said: UKIE made a pretty significant shift from 12z Precip maps only go out to 72hrs but here is the difference down south... clear as day. 12z 00z That's a 15mb difference down south from 12z to 0z. 1004mb to 989mb..that's a big big difference in strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Blizz said: GEFS looks similar to OP. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How so? With positioning the mean is similar to the OP Also its further east and drier than it's been... significantly so compared to the 18z mean but slightly more juiced than OP due to a few amped members. We'll see what Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 People aren't going to like the gefs... not nearly as good as previous runs... in line somewhat with OP now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Some pros and some cons tonight. As is usually the case, gonna have to wait for the s/w to come on shore out west, to get an accurate idea of what is really accurate. We've seen this movie so many times before...need better sampling before we can say it's a whiff or a whallop?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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