Welcome to American Weather
eyewall

Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

1,531 posts in this topic

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you are obsessed with that season..

He is talking about the poster leo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully that model is wrong....that would be a bad pattern for us...even NNE.

 

Though I'll add that maybe late in the winter we'd do pretty well. Like Nick said, it kind of looks weird that the pattern looks better later in winter during a La Nina.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Most of these fall in the 7-10:1 ratio range that i have seen when i have taken core samples, Morerso then the 12:1 type stuff or higher especially here in the coastal plain.

Did better for 07-08 in the foothills (which should be no surprise for ratios) - our 142.3" had an average 10.9-to-1 ratio.  The 21 events 3"+ were 11:1, two late season storms with P-type issues each brought 2.0" of 5:1 glop, and 21 "tinies" (0.1" to 1.8") dropped 11.2" of 13.8-to-1 powder.

That season had 7 events 7"+, 2 more 6"-6.9", and an even dozen 3.0" to 5.9".  Of the 21 three-plus, 8 came in Feb, 7 in Dec, 3 each Jan-Mar. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Welcome to mod Nina

 

You forgot to show the January map where the purples extend down through almost all of SNE. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully that model is wrong....that would be a bad pattern for us...even NNE.

 

Though I'll add that maybe late in the winter we'd do pretty well. Like Nick said, it kind of looks weird that the pattern looks better later in winter during a La Nina.

U can see the Nov Dec Jan 500mb anomalies aren't terrible displaced from Dec 2007...less ridging into the GOA and a more northerly displaced 50/50 low.  But that makes a huge difference sensibly obviously.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

You forgot to show the January map where the purples extend down through almost all of SNE. 

 

Well it has to fit his agenda. Ratter incoming. 

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well it has to fit his agenda. Ratter incoming. 

My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic 

I think it's obvious most think you are doing the classic reverse psych formula. If it stinks, you were right on the forecast...if it's a good winter, you don't care if you were wrong because you bask in the delight of the heavy snows.

 

But maybe you truly believe this one is gonna be terrible. There's an argument to be made either way...though I don't see anything obviously negative yet at our latitude. Maybe things will start to look worse as we go through the end of this month into November.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think it's obvious most think you are doing the classic reverse psych formula. If it stinks, you were right on the forecast...if it's a good winter, you don't care if you were wrong because you bask in the delight of the heavy snows.

 

But maybe you truly believe this one is gonna be terrible. There's an argument to be made either way...though I don't see anything obviously negative yet at our latitude. Maybe things will start to look worse as we go through the end of this month into November.

I’m honestly pessimistic. I’ve laid out why . I hope I’m completely off 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m honestly pessimistic. I’ve laid out why . I hope I’m completely off 

If December has a garbage pattern, we're probably in real trouble, so it probably won't take long to find out. Very few La Ninas had a second half comeback after a bad start....the huge exception seems to be 1955-1956....but the pattern in December actually wasn't bad, we just got pretty unlucky with almost no snow. It was still decently cold...just couldn't get anything going despite the good blocking.

 

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And are we sure we go moderate?

No...though the subsurface is impressive. It will try and ramp up, but it might not be enough in time.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why are they units so small? Anomalies on the order of hundredths of millimeters?

Pretty colors get Kevin everytime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic 

Nah, be objective thats all. You post anything that supports ratter but neglect the next map that shows the contrary. Its all good, just busting. We know youll win either way. 

Most have said there are decent signs ahead so Ill trust that until there are glaring signs that say otherwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.