gravitylover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Kinda crazy the way pretty much all the models show a nearly dry slot east of the HRV and right up the CT River Valley. I may actually be able to make my road trip relatively easily while all around me it's raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 56 minutes ago, Animal said: Mornin weather fan, regarding the upcoming storm. mt holly nws is still honking a really good rain storm. They do mention some freezing rain is possible in the higher terrain. And Upton is saying close but no cigar. A section of their AFD, Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 557 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Significant coastal storm likely Sunday Night into Tuesday with potential high wind...heavy rain...and coastal impacts. Have issued a High Wind Watch for Long Island, coastal CT, New York City, and some adjacent parts of urban northeast New Jersey from late Sunday night into much of Monday night. The watch covers the time frame when wind gusts in those areas will likely exceed 40 mph, with the highest winds capable of meeting high wind criteria occurring mainly from late morning into the evening. Siding with slower/stronger 00Z NAM/03Z SREF as the precursor synoptic pattern is somewhat blocky, the storm very well could slow down as it closes off and becomes negatively tilted aloft. Think sustained east winds in the warning area will reach 30-40 mph with gusts 60-65 mph, with the strongest winds across Long Island and parts of NYC closest to the ocean. Farther north/west, wind gusts will likely approach or exceed wind advisory criteria, reaching 40-50 mph, with the highest speeds closer to the coast and in the higher elevations. ECMWF ensemble wind probabilities continue to support this general idea as well, with 80-90% probability of 50+ kt wind gusts over the ocean waters, and 50% probability just inland. Slow moving coastal storm passes just south by Tuesday per model consensus, with a 1 to 3 inch rainfall likely. The heaviest rain occurs Monday as trough becomes negatively tilted, and abundant moisture gets pulled northward ahead of the slowing system. Plenty of Atlantic moisture advects northward ahead of this low, with the warmer air riding over the cooler air entrenched over the northeast. Diabatical cooling is expected, but perhaps not enough for much wintry weather across the interior. Gradually improving conditions occur later Tue into Tue Night as the upper low pivots northeast and low pressure tracks up the New England coast. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 28 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Kinda crazy the way pretty much all the models show a nearly dry slot east of the HRV and right up the CT River Valley. I may actually be able to make my road trip relatively easily while all around me it's raging. 06Z NAM is showing only 1.26 of QPF and 06Z GFS is 0.82 for KSWF and both showing all liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: And Upton is saying close but no cigar. A section of their AFD, Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 557 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Significant coastal storm likely Sunday Night into Tuesday with potential high wind...heavy rain...and coastal impacts. Have issued a High Wind Watch for Long Island, coastal CT, New York City, and some adjacent parts of urban northeast New Jersey from late Sunday night into much of Monday night. The watch covers the time frame when wind gusts in those areas will likely exceed 40 mph, with the highest winds capable of meeting high wind criteria occurring mainly from late morning into the evening. Siding with slower/stronger 00Z NAM/03Z SREF as the precursor synoptic pattern is somewhat blocky, the storm very well could slow down as it closes off and becomes negatively tilted aloft. Think sustained east winds in the warning area will reach 30-40 mph with gusts 60-65 mph, with the strongest winds across Long Island and parts of NYC closest to the ocean. Farther north/west, wind gusts will likely approach or exceed wind advisory criteria, reaching 40-50 mph, with the highest speeds closer to the coast and in the higher elevations. ECMWF ensemble wind probabilities continue to support this general idea as well, with 80-90% probability of 50+ kt wind gusts over the ocean waters, and 50% probability just inland. Slow moving coastal storm passes just south by Tuesday per model consensus, with a 1 to 3 inch rainfall likely. The heaviest rain occurs Monday as trough becomes negatively tilted, and abundant moisture gets pulled northward ahead of the slowing system. Plenty of Atlantic moisture advects northward ahead of this low, with the warmer air riding over the cooler air entrenched over the northeast. Diabatical cooling is expected, but perhaps not enough for much wintry weather across the interior. Gradually improving conditions occur later Tue into Tue Night as the upper low pivots northeast and low pressure tracks up the New England coast. && Yea, Mt Holly does mention there is a slight risk of some flakes on Tuesday as the storm pulls away. AFD mentions that the there will be dynamics at work, but the storm is expected to weaken as it nears the NJ coast, so no real heavy snow threat etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: 06Z NAM is showing only 1.26 of QPF and 06Z GFS is 0.82 for KSWF and both showing all liquid. That is some weak sauce from the sky. Average of an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: And Upton is saying close but no cigar. A section of their AFD, Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 557 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Significant coastal storm likely Sunday Night into Tuesday with potential high wind...heavy rain...and coastal impacts. Have issued a High Wind Watch for Long Island, coastal CT, New York City, and some adjacent parts of urban northeast New Jersey from late Sunday night into much of Monday night. The watch covers the time frame when wind gusts in those areas will likely exceed 40 mph, with the highest winds capable of meeting high wind criteria occurring mainly from late morning into the evening. Siding with slower/stronger 00Z NAM/03Z SREF as the precursor synoptic pattern is somewhat blocky, the storm very well could slow down as it closes off and becomes negatively tilted aloft. Think sustained east winds in the warning area will reach 30-40 mph with gusts 60-65 mph, with the strongest winds across Long Island and parts of NYC closest to the ocean. Farther north/west, wind gusts will likely approach or exceed wind advisory criteria, reaching 40-50 mph, with the highest speeds closer to the coast and in the higher elevations. ECMWF ensemble wind probabilities continue to support this general idea as well, with 80-90% probability of 50+ kt wind gusts over the ocean waters, and 50% probability just inland. Slow moving coastal storm passes just south by Tuesday per model consensus, with a 1 to 3 inch rainfall likely. The heaviest rain occurs Monday as trough becomes negatively tilted, and abundant moisture gets pulled northward ahead of the slowing system. Plenty of Atlantic moisture advects northward ahead of this low, with the warmer air riding over the cooler air entrenched over the northeast. Diabatical cooling is expected, but perhaps not enough for much wintry weather across the interior. Gradually improving conditions occur later Tue into Tue Night as the upper low pivots northeast and low pressure tracks up the New England coast. && Upton has lost their damn mind lol.. I posted a snippet of yesterdays AFD which mentioned accumulating snow for the "NW hills" and now that the models have cooled even more they changed the forecast to mostly rain. No way that forecast will hold if models continue to show what they have the past 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, snywx said: Upton has lost their damn mind lol.. I posted a snippet of yesterdays AFD which mentioned accumulating snow for the "NW hills" and now that the models have cooled even more they changed the forecast to mostly rain. No way that forecast will hold if models continue to show what they have the past 12 hrs Yup. Yesterday they had a mixed bag for much of the event for the Newburgh area in the point and click. Today, it's all liquid. I think it might come down to "nowcasting" and elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Yup. Yesterday they had a mixed bag for much of the event for the Newburgh area in the point and click. Today, it's all liquid. I think it might come down to "nowcasting" and elevation. Totally agree, this is a nowcasting event. Depending on how wrapped up this storm gets and if diabatical cooling occurs I think up here we could have some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The lack of cold air is making this a waste of a decent winter storm IMO. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: The lack of cold air is making this a waste of a decent winter storm IMO. Meh The Nam would be the biggest sleet storm in recent memory...3-5" of pure sleet... id say that would be worth seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The Nam would be the biggest sleet storm in recent memory...3-5" of pure sleet... id say that would be worth seeing We'll see, I'm just not feeling it. And while a sleet storm would be cool it's also kind sad considering we are heading into the coldest part of the year on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/CoastalStormBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Based how it feels outside this should be closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Damn this fog keeping everything soggy and untouchable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 From 06z so already outdated, but oh my, I think we'd all do some unspeakable things for this to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Damn this fog keeping everything soggy and untouchable. Bright and sunny up here, I was just riding around with the sun roof open...both glorious and ridiculous at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: From 06z so already outdated, but oh my, I think we'd all do some unspeakable things for this to verify Yea saw that this morning, 953 off cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea saw that this morning, 953 off cape cod We could all die happy after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: We could all die happy after that. I'd finally move down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 55° and sunny. Incredible for late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: 55° and sunny. Incredible for late January. 53 here #STFUpartdeux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: 53 here #STFUpartdeux Lol, if February doesn't produce it'll be real bad. I'm ready for spring anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 51.3F. Getting ready to crank the ghetto blaster on the deck and drop into some Founders all day IPA. Saw a lone bear earlier, so spring is just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Also my snow stake report. Found the last of the snow on the ground around my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 49F here. Clouds are keeping the temps down. Seeing more sun the past 30 minutes or so now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, Animal said: 51.3F. Getting ready to crank the ghetto blaster on the deck and drop into some Founders all day IPA. Saw a lone bear earlier, so spring is just around the corner. I've got shorts on and I'm about to go sit in the sun. I do have a solid mudpack of 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Latest from Mt Holly NWS. Apparently, it will come down to which model is right regarding precip type/totals in our portal. Conditions get complicated on Monday. NAM continues to carry a colder solution on Monday compared to the GFS/ECMWF, and this results in a period of wintry precip, mainly to the north of I-80, across the Poconos. Since the column of colder air is a bit deeper compared to previous runs, will carry a forecast of rain and sleet and will take out the mention of freezing rain. Another aspect of not for Monday is that both the 12Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF almost have a secondary low forming over the western Atlantic, and that tracks to the north and east and well offshore. What this appears to be doing is taking the heavy rain with it, and as a result, the heaviest of the rain is falling over the Atlantic waters. NAM continues to have this area of heavy rain along the coast. For now, expecting the heaviest of the rain to fall from after midnight Sunday night through early Monday afternoon. By this time, the surface low will be over the Mid-Atlantic, and then will begin to move offshore by Monday evening. The overall big picture of the storm remains in place, but there are some timing issues that have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Well Albany is certainly buying the Nams solution... 3-6" of snow/ice accretion with possibly 8+ in higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Well Albany is certainly buying the Nams solution... 3-6" of snow/ice accretion with possibly 8+ in higher elevations Whether its sleet or snow its gonna be wintry around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3k NAM has 21" over MBY, verbatim would be a lot of sleet, historical amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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