JerseyWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 39 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: starting to peak my interests EPS VERY snowy Is it? Well, I think this might be something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Seeing the GFS, Euro, GGEM show improvements today is def a huge sign for me. Im usually always cautiously optimistic but I can see someone in our area receiving a good amount of snow. Whether its everyone 40+ miles NW of NYC or those with decent elevation remains to be seen. If we see tonights runs hold serve or trend better then im all in. Nam gives you almost 4" and the low is still in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam gives you almost 4" and the low is still in GA Hearing the NAM-Para is even colder, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 EPS Mean is snowy. Gets 2" down to about 15 miles nw of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, nesussxwx said: Hearing the NAM-Para is even colder, lol. Nam para drops 3-6" area wide from the initial wave of precip, main event is still around TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18z NAM Hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam para drops 3-6" area wide from the initial wave of precip, main event is still around TN Would we changeover as the low comes further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Would we changeover as the low comes further north? Depends where the second LP depends and pulls off shore... a track like the GFS? Then def not, Nam cold/ GFS track would be epic snowfall for 84cooridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4-5" EPS Snowfall mean for MBY.. Nice signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: 4-5" EPS Snowfall mean for MBY.. Nice signal Especially since it was 3-4" of rain yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Especially since it was 3-4" of rain yesterday lol.. The main thread was set up for a potential wind/rain event for the coast. Models have a completely different look now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, snywx said: lol.. The main thread was set up for a potential wind/rain event for the coast. Models have a completely different look now I don't think the coast is escaping rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I don't think the coast is escaping rain We may not escape it either lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Billy, if you think about it...the times when the interior really does well with storms is when the city mixes or rains...right where the line with the snow starts usually gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: We may not escape it either lol.. All positive, until this post....smh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Squid1225 said: Billy, if you think about it...the times when the interior really does well with storms is when the city mixes or rains...right where the line with the snow starts usually gets crushed If the city/coast is expecting an all snow event don't expect much up here. Very very few storms have produced a significant snow event for both the interior and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: All positive, until this post....smh lol Its still early! lol.. Cant go all in yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, snywx said: If the city/coast is expecting an all snow event don't expect much up here. Very very few storms have produced a significant snow event for both the interior and coast. Agreed my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: All positive, until this post....smh lol The trend is our friend. It's not often things get better the closer we move in. Quite positive over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 hours ago, snywx said: Considering how bad Jan has been for the interior most of us are still above average for snowfall so far. December was def a good month. Hopefully this event coming up can salvage Jan. I just went below average on the season. I have 18.0" and average at this point is 18.2". Thanks a lot January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: 18z GFS.. Def not as good as 12z but there's plenty of time, were closewe're close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Of course. I blew off a southwestern NH to central VT road trip yesterday because they were supposed to have a mixed snowy and icy mess and put it off to Monday. They got some of the mess but travel conditions weren't as bad as they could have been. Now I can't put this one off so I guess it's just going to be a long slow travel day. I need to go up I91 in Mass then through Keene and up to I89 in NH and then across to the I91/89 junction in VT. Guess I'm not doing it in the BRZ and using the old Durango. Ehh, it's only gas right...? Wednesday is a trip up the west side of the Greens then up and over the top to Killington and out Rt 4 then down to 91 and over to the NH coast for Thursday. Lots of snowy roads seem to be in my future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Nam has a great look to it at its tail end, anyone around or north of 84 should start getting a bit excited and tracking this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 0z NAM is very wintry for orange county and points northward. hr 75, hr 78, hr 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z NAM is very wintry for orange county and points northward. hr 75, hr 78, hr 81 Why do surface maps print out rain with 850s that low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Why do surface maps print out rain with 850s that low? Most likely cause the surface is above 32°.. Dynamic cooling is a beautiful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Most likely cause the surface is above 32°.. Dynamic cooling is a beautiful thing Especially up here where it's ALWAYS undermodeled whats your best guess as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I think we all start as rain and eventually flip to snow with this one. When we flip and how much prob won't be known till the last minute but interesting to track nonetheless. Tracking the setup & R/S line is half the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, snywx said: I think we all start as rain and eventually flip to snow with this one. When we flip and how much prob won't be known till the last minute but interesting to track nonetheless. Tracking the setup & R/S line is half the fun I've seen some pretty significant snowfalls after the flip... usually happens quickly and comes down hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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