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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1
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13 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Is the bathtub finally sloshing? 

I don't think there's any water left in the tub at this point!

8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Ok CR if you're right...you not only start the thread, you start all threads next year.  You're prognostication will have earned you that distinct honor.  I think we're about at day 6 at this point though aren't we? If there's enough cold north of 85 though I'd be surprised, once it turns north. 

Lol what happened to stonecoldweatheraustin??

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25 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Well yeah I guess.  IMO the only way it comes north is because the vortex 50/50 eases up (I'm so tired of waiting for phases, nothing ever phases anymore, it's not phasing).  Vortex eases up then so does our cold.  Either way we get no snow.  

Still like the last week in February though.  Looks like a nice little storm signal on the GEFS.  Still need to see if we can get cold air though.  

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png

I think they had a good phase yesterday! But WE don't get phases, for sure! I guess I'm rooting for NW trend, we need the rain!

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't think there's any water left in the tub at this point!

Lol what happened to stonecoldweatheraustin??

The bathtub sloshed for his money spot! I think NYC/BOS got sloshed yesterday and more to come for BOS atleast, and our storm, will probably give them a HECS again! 

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I remember back in late Jan we thought the first half of Feb would be BN...well after this weekend we will be approaching +10F for the first half of Feb.   The last 10 days of Feb will be solidly AN, just saw the EPS on twitter and it looks really warm.  But, severe weather may perk up so maybe that should be our new hobby. 

Raleigh will go another winter without a 10" season, which will be season 13, almost twice as long as previous long which only happened once in previous 130 years I think.  So, since 2004 we have one 6" event and no 10" seasons.   We used to average 3 of each every 10 years.   Safe to say those winters are over, this isn't a feel sorry for us moment, just facts now.   I actually feel lucky with the 0.5" of snow we did get, we should really appreciate events like that going forward.

Well its pre-emergent weekend, going to be great outside   

Still holding out hope to see some flakes for the day 6-7 deal.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Well yeah I guess.  IMO the only way it comes north is because the vortex 50/50 eases up (I'm so tired of waiting for phases, nothing ever phases anymore, it's not phasing).  Vortex eases up then so does our cold.  Either way we get no snow.  

Still like the last week in February though.  Looks like a nice little storm signal on the GEFS.  Still need to see if we can get cold air though.  

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png

This is the trouble, we are always 7-10 days out, last week we were suppose to have a storm, next week we were suppose to have a snow storm or at least a good chance and now we're liking the last week in February, we just keep going on and on and none of the storms never pan out, hell this is winter time where is the cold air anyway, we're running out of time and ten days then another ten days we're soon be in to spring, about to give up on this winter and I never thought this winter would be worse than last but it is. :weep:

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12z GFS looks mildly entertaining, H5, 120hrs.  Note that piece of energy on the northern streaming coming down through MT/WY, that just appeared in recent runs.  We are going to news atleast some interactions of the streams to lift the SLP north imo, given there is limited means to amplify the southern stream shortwave.

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Just now, griteater said:

GFS run was better.  It seems to be holding on to the strength of the TX wave a little longer each model run.  This run is really close.  Flex the diving northern stream back to the west just a touch and you have a snowstorm.

Yep...maybe to close at day 6 :-)

That ull is a hair stronger and NS a hair west.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

 

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1 minute ago, WeatherNC said:

I am fine with this central FL track for the next day or two, would like to see the Euro on board and some ensemble hits to show there is enough variability in the setup for potential hit. Ensembles up until this point have been anemic.

Yeah agree.  I think the thing that interests me the most with that run is the TX wave being a little deeper/stronger.  The northern stream has to press hard to the south just to get it cold enough, so we need the TX wave to hold its own there to get cold+storm

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah agree.  I think the thing that interests me the most with that run is the TX wave being a little deeper/stronger.  The northern stream has to press hard to the south just to get it cold enough, so we need the TX wave to hold its own there to get cold+storm

It will happen.  Almost always does.

Re: the northern stream....it probably won't press as hard as it looks like now.  That's why I'm concerned about temps.  Unless we do get a phase, which is possible (we're dealing with a lot of pieces of energy, some of which are just now showing up and are probably still very poorly modeled), I would expect a narrow snow zone on the northern side.  All of this is assuming that the SW/ULL will hold longer and be stronger and the northern stream won't press as hard as the GFS shows.  I really do expect to start seeing some runs in the next couple of days where some snow shows up somewhere.  Probably will be in northern SC first and work north from there.  This looks like a 3-6" setup for the lucky zone.  If we get a phase, then things change.

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