Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[Cold Rain]

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looking at how the GFS/GFS-Para/Euro has done the past 10 days or so.  Below is a 48 hour model prog (top left), so should be fairly close to reality, and then top right is GFS, bottom left is Euro and bottom right is Para, all from Dec 21st for the same date to compare.  The Op GFS isn't even close, the Para/Euro are fairly good.  In fact, the Op Euro picked up on the blocking (NAO) a little better then it's own ensemble at this range.   The para picked up on the NAO too.  The Op GFS started getting a clue inside day 7 and was reasonable at day 5.

This is awesome.  Thanks for this.

[avalanche]

GFS showing almost no Eastern Canadian/Greenland blocking.

[LovingGulfLows]

16 minutes ago, Justanobody said:

Most mets in the SE are conservative..

Of course, most mets in the SE are conservative...it's not like we get snow down here too often. No one wants to be bullish and then bust heavily when a snowstorm doesn't happen. Better to be bearish than bullish in the South especially 9-10 days out.

[RubiksDestroyer]

22 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looking at how the GFS/GFS-Para/Euro has done the past 10 days or so.  Below is a 48 hour model prog (top left), so should be fairly close to reality, and then top right is GFS, bottom left is Euro and bottom right is Para, all from Dec 21st for the same date to compare.  The Op GFS isn't even close, the Para/Euro are fairly good.  In fact, the Op Euro picked up on the blocking (NAO) a little better then it's own ensemble at this range.   The para picked up on the NAO too.  The Op GFS started getting a clue inside day 7 and was reasonable at day 5.

Edit:  The GEPS was awful, not even close at day 9, didn't even bother looking much into it.  The GEFS/EPS were both reasonable at day 9.

 

Wow, I'm pretty impressed by the GFS-Para. I heard it was doing better than the OP at H5, but that's a much larger difference than I expected. This is an incredibly limited data set, but this certainly lends to the Para being a step in the right direction for the GFS. If these sorts of verifications continue, perhaps we should just drop the OP altogether for the rest of the winter .

[packbacker]

9 minutes ago, RubiksDestroyer said:

Wow, I'm pretty impressed by the GFS-Para. I heard it was doing better than the OP at H5, but that's a much larger difference than I expected. This is an incredibly limited data set, but this certainly lends to the Para being a step in the right direction for the GFS. If these sorts of verifications continue, perhaps we should just drop the OP altogether for the rest of the winter .

Was a little surprised, but I picked one storm that's going to affect the NE tomorrow and Friday to verify this.  Not exactly a huge sample size.  But, still nice to see Euro do so well (knock on wood).  The Para wasn't that great at the surface though, the Euro was fairly solid even at days 7-9.

[RubiksDestroyer]

18 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Was a little surprised, but I picked one storm that's going to affect the NE tomorrow and Friday to verify this.  Not exactly a huge sample size.  But, still nice to see Euro do so well (knock on wood).  The Para wasn't that great at the surface though, the Euro was fairly solid even at days 7-9.

That's not too surprising. It at least seems to be doing well at H5 though, which is more important IMO (if the model isn't in the ballpark at 500 mb, how can it possibly be right at the surface?).

[SN_Lover]

0z GFS not looking too hot on early indications. Ridging in the atlantic is taking a beating since 12z gfs. Let's see how the rest of the run pans out...hopefully ends up different. 

[DopplerWx]

man that early wave looks strong at 180 compared to 12z/18z.

[griteater]

GFS looks closer to the Euro 12z, but it doesn't have as much of a cold push into the SE ahead of the storm.  Looks like it's going to be a prolonged overrunning event though

[DopplerWx]

great lakes low showing up at 186, temps not as cold as 18z but moisture not as suppressed either. snow in n tx. moisture stretching east.

[DopplerWx]

temps are close but rdu north looks to be mainly snow, overrunning event similar to what the euro showed at 12z.

[NCSNOW]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

great lakes low showing up at 186, temps not as cold as 18z but moisture not as suppressed either. snow in n tx. moisture stretching east.

Jumps the first wave. Tons more snow ice precip in Texas.

[DopplerWx]

plenty of moisture incoming, if temps cooperate this will be a fun one.

[DopplerWx]

mixing issues at 216 it looks like thru 228 fornearly all of nc.  sleet/icy

[griteater]

It's a beautiful southern slider, prolonged overrunning setup on the GFS, but it's lacking that initial cold punch out ahead of the storm....it ends up quite wintry for northern NC into VA on Jan 7

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's a beautiful southern slider, prolonged overrunning setup on the GFS, but it's lacking that initial cold punch out ahead of the storm....it ends up quite wintry for northern NC into VA on Jan 7

Getting SER'd.  GFS v/s Euro

GFS slightly weaker EPO and NAO.

[DopplerWx]

precip breaks out fri morn (1/6) and is still going sat night per the gfs.

[JoshM]

@ 222hrs, that 1030HP over NY is helping wedge in some cold, pushing Rain/IP line south near NC/SC border.

[griteater]

Just now, packbacker said:

Getting SER'd.  GFS v/s Euro

Yep, if I see another person state that a little southeast ridging is good...

That's a great image there Pack.  The sharp configuration over Greenland and south into the Canadian Maritimes on the Euro is obviously much preferred

[packbacker]

Just now, griteater said:

Yep, if I see another person state that a little southeast ridging is good...

That's a great image there Pack.  The sharp configuration over Greenland and south into the Canadian Maritimes on the Euro is obviously much preferred

LOL...SER's are great for the Oh-V, not us.

I know, we need a 50/50 and not have the EPO peel back NW....so essentially everything mostly perfect.

[JoshM]

Quote

Clown map for you guys

[Cary_Snow95]

Whoops just saw your pic. I'll keep it though since this is zoomed in for the NC folks

[NCSNOW]

The sweet spot on clowns in NC continues to be o a line from Murphy to Elizabeth City. That has been consistent on both ops since 12z. Big difference is the gfs has come in line with the euro and amplified the first wave and not delayed or waited 24 to 36 hrs latter. And as pack pointed out it has way more ser fighting back against the artic push. The cold wins out but it's slower arrival along with quicker precip onset cause more liquid/mixing. 

[DopplerWx]

most of that is frz rain and sleet, initial bust is snow but not much.

[Jonathan]

Also, it stays cold for a few days after the storm. I love when that happens. BN thru 300hr!

[NCSNOW]

15 inch sweet spot right over Roberts House this run.

[AshevilleCityWx]

Yep the real sweet spot is actually the foothills of NC into southern VA where it takes longer for the snow to lose out. Those 11" totals aren't happening folks with that warm air aloft.

[Jonathan]

Before we go crazy with totals, most of central NC mixes per the GFS verbatim.

Here's a map using the kuchera ratio (not standard 10:1) ONLY counting snow.

[AshevilleCityWx]

I'm a bit cautious as I would like for SC/GA to be more in play so we can handle the north-west trends closer to the event. Otherwise this looks like a very light event IMO from RAL to Charlotte. Climo areas are favored as always.

[NCSNOW]

 Need the Euro to win this one at H5 with the timing, placement and we'll be in Glory. If ser hangs tough like gfs, we'll still have a decent storm but I prefer all snow and more of my neighbors to the south cashing in.

Anyone got Canadian, beside B&W?