CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, 512high said: Scott, then this only looks good for north of NH and upper Maine right now? I would definitely keep an eye on it in Nashua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Northern Maine gets buried, The GFS is not very favorable for the board majority up here lucky son of a ....(lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I would definitely keep an eye on it in Nashua. ty scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 So we have seen the GFS and that's last two runs trend towards that euro in terms of strength of secondary development. What are we saying in terms of precipitation field trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, 512high said: lucky son of a ....(lol) I wasn't so lucky on that run, That slp was a little to far west and warm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 Congrats, central Maine.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Another step in Euro direction. Either way it's likely mid -high end advisory SNE with heavier stuff north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, mahk_webstah said: So we have seen the GFS and that's last two runs trend towards that euro in terms of strength of secondary development. What are we saying in terms of precipitation field trends? You want more of a Euro solution to get some colder air into the system or the GFS to ramp up alot sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats, central Maine.! Quite a bit of that is from tomorrow in that area up here so you would have to back that out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: You want more of a Euro solution to get some colder air into the system or the GFS to ramp up alot sooner Sooner is the key. Too warm and weak for big SNE impact on this run. End result similar to 00z IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 GFS is trending give it time folks, the EURO might have a handle on this system more so, the 12z NAM shows a 997mb near Cape Cod with significant backside precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Quite a bit of that is from tomorrow on that area up here so you would have to back that out Actually--that's the 24-hour total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 The sooner the transfer of energy happens the better for SNE, especially western SNE, but the backside precipitation could changeover to a significant snowfall. The transfer of energy reminds me of 2005/DEC/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The sooner the transfer of energy happens the better for SNE, especially western SNE, but the backside precipitation could changeover to a significant snowfall. The transfer of energy reminds me of 2005/DEC/9 Beware the backside snowfalls....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I would never use that as an analogy. This is like any other secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Actually--that's the 24-hour total. Got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I checked the ORH sounding from coolwx.com and they were all snow as of the 6z GFS run, while the 12z run is mostly rain. That is due to the track of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 No Scott, look at the simulated radar imagery on the NAM, the comma head is exactly like that day. I guess severity not so much given that was an explosive developing nor'easter and tropopausal fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I would never use that as an analogy. This is like any other secondary development. Not much different then any other secondary development, The key is how far east and how soon it deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 NAM shows 50 knot sustained winds out of the south-southeast on the 31st for CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Got it So, tag on the earlier stuff and you've got some riding to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM shows 50 knot sustained winds out of the south-southeast on the 31st for CHH. Sorry read that wrong lol 5 knot sustained winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: So, tag on the earlier stuff and you've got some riding to do. If the Euro is right, I can leave from the doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 At least PF won't break his back shoveling this one................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 23 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The sooner the transfer of energy happens the better for SNE, especially western SNE, but the backside precipitation could changeover to a significant snowfall. The transfer of energy reminds me of 2005/DEC/9 I'm going to let you in on a little secret.....extreme solutions are not always viable analogs. Thank me later- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I have to not get sucked into the euro, and just look at the reality of the model output which is in line with original expectations of a 3 to 6 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Can't see between hrs 72 and 96 but at 96, 12z Ukie is a nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Beware the backside snowfalls....... Staple of the fraud five.... WINDEX, backlash, Inv trough, Norlun and one more...forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 That UK solution is very formidable. 56mb gradient....yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Can't see between hrs 72 and 96 but at 96, 12z Ukie is a nuke Track might be too far inland for a bunch of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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