Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's not really the reason though. The other versions show more QPF, where that one kind of keeps SE areas in light precip before the meat comes in. Once it does, it gets too warm. But hey, that could happen too. well... maybe i didn't fully get ur conversation there, but i thought there was consternation over why there was additionaly 'warm look' in the se zones. yeah, precip certainly would play a role, because of evaporation cooling feed-back on bl resistance and so forth, BUT, in principle, i'm not sure you can declare 'not the reason' like that for the nam seeing marine intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... maybe i didn't fully get ur conversation there, but i thought there was consternation over why there was additionaly 'warm look' in the se zones. yeah, precip certainly would play a role, because of evaporation cooling feed-back on bl resistance and so forth, BUT, in principle, i'm not sure you can declare 'not the reason' like that for the nam seeing marine intrusion. The 3KM and 12KM had more QPF which I think led to less snow...but anyways it's probably gonna change. RGEM slightly warmer in SNE, but looks like a good thump still for BOS. It's is the coldest of guidance so not surprised it warms some..at least near BOS. Still has the cold tuck too. We all furnace late Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 just looking at the NAM sounding for IPT ... that's pretty much a snow thump followed by an icing event with almost through the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Rgem looks exactly the same.. in fact it keeps most of the N 2/3 of CT mostly snow . Might end as fzdz. Solid 4-6 for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Rgem looks exactly the same.. in fact it keeps most of the N 2/3 of CT mostly snow . Might end as fzdz. Solid 4-6 for everyone Are they still expecting a big warm up on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 ha, it might have even been Kevin? i dunno, but someone mentioned ANA the other day - i just caught it in passing, but the idea was quickly buried and quietly tucked away. this 12z NAM solution does erupt an ANA stripe... yes, BEHIND the primary boundary. in fact, i was inclined to check when the FRH grid popped off additional .3" liq equiv QPF with T1 thru T5 supporting cat's paws down in PHL! ... it may not be happen. it may also be a coincidence... but, just sayn' the idea isn't without precedence here. obviously it's not a big deal. the geographical layout of said ANA ribbon is pretty dern narrow; i just thought it interesting to point out that it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Are they still expecting a big warm up on Sunday? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 rgem stays the course, biggest event incoming for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yes. Thought so. Any chance of it being shorter duration? As in, will we be able to hold onto anything from Saturday until temps drop on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: Are they still expecting a big warm up on Sunday? Seems like an 8-10 hour period mostly Sunday morning of 40's.. perhaps low 50's in spots. Front crashes thru midday so it's not prolonged , but it may be enough to wipe out most of it. It keeps Greenfield area near 32 the entire time so Chris keeps his pack and MPM should keep some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Thought so. Any chance of it being shorter duration? As in, will we be able to hold onto anything from Saturday until temps drop on Sunday? That depends on how much snow you receive, when the warm front comes through, and how long. My guess is in ORH..probably will hold onto some. I can't say if it's 1" or 4" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 looking at it ...it's classic (relative to the NAM's evolution that is..) it shows a primary boundary position that is along and/or off the ec at 60 hours, meanwhile...the trough-centric wind max(es) are all well back west over the cordillera and eastern Lakes... that much jet velocty riding back west over the boundary could very well instantiate a restoring counter flow/up-glide over the top... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 RGEM looks like CF enhancement near and just NW of BOS. Could see a secondary max there..maybe near 128 area give or take. 5 miles each side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like an 8-10 hour period mostly Sunday morning of 40's.. perhaps low 50's in spots. Front crashes thru midday so it's not prolonged , but it may be enough to wipe out most of it. It keeps Greenfield area near 32 the entire time so Chris keeps his pack and MPM should keep some Since we have several inches on the ground from Monday's 6", I'm pretty certain we'll have plenty of coverage when it cools down again on Sunday. I'm not sure about Christmas, but I'd be shocked if there are any bare spots in the hinterlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 forgetting details for a moment... this is an awesome image - nice http://www.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That depends on how much snow you receive, when the warm front comes through, and how long. My guess is in ORH..probably will hold onto some. I can't say if it's 1" or 4" though. Thanks, I'll keep my hopes suspended. In spite of my best efforts, I'm finding myself hoping for some white on the ground for the 25th... including hints of something toward the end of next week... Can't fight the culture! I really have to move to Caribou (and buy every bit of civilization I want on Amazon). Wife won't go, though.... hmmmm, maybe Skype? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 that's an awesome point and click warning text sojourn through Pittsburg's NWS page... they have ice-storm warning with winds to 20 mph and temps in the lower 20s! can you say, no power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: The sound of the snowplow last night scrapping away our hefty 0.5" snowfall was louder than the wind. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Still 0F at almost 11am. It's been awhile since we've done that in mid Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Look how cold Rgem keeps it tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Thanks, I'll keep my hopes suspended. In spite of my best efforts, I'm finding myself hoping for some white on the ground for the 25th... including hints of something toward the end of next week... Can't fight the culture! I really have to move to Caribou (and buy every bit of civilization I want on Amazon). Wife won't go, though.... hmmmm, maybe Skype? Caribou is a nice town...not remote at all...has all the fast food restaurants and shops and grocery stores... nice town. I don't think you'd find it that isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Look how cold Rgem keeps it tomorrow night! Post 39hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 you guys should lay off on the wind 'backdraft' it's okay to be satirical/sarcastic a little, but carrying on about it sounds like "ignient" rabble honking like donkeys the wind warning was not unwarranted. the indicators were there. not every 'imminent threat in the atmosphere is realized - that's just the state of the art of the present era. tornado warning more often means no tornado, but it does not follow to ridicule there, either. if they didn't do such a warning given the data, and 65 mph mixing became more common, the hypocrisy would know no bounds - let it go already. christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Look how cold Rgem keeps it tomorrow night! Go forward a few hours when the parakeets come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Caribou is a nice town...not remote at all...has all the fast food restaurants and shops and grocery stores... nice town. I don't think you'd find it that isolated. There are a few activities not Skypeable if you get my drift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 GFS is a little better with the tuck..would be pretty slippery BOS metro in the aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Post 39hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 heh, if i had to hunch.. the RGEM (as much as I appreciate that model for this sort of buffer) is probably too liberal with the cold-hold-on look there. having said that, i do think (based in no small part on personal experience as a man succumbing to the universal constant of time...) that whatever is thought of warm frontal position... knock 6 to 12 hours minimum off that timing as a general correction rule of thumb. every situation comes with something unique about it...but, putting all those passed experiences/examples in a blender and pouring a cup, the result is usually a cooler beverage when it comes to warm fronts N of NYC trying to smear out cold of any kind. right up the dial of resistance, you add time to that need... .be it 1 hour or 1 day... you add. this smells like a 9 hour delay bust to me. just because as i've outlined, this system's uniqueness is that it's actually moving TOO FAST above at mid levels... the warm push moves off, and the 'slosh back' ageostrophy takes over and frankly it's awesome that any model even shows that enough... we'll see- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Lol at the GFS jack at the Mastiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Look how cold Rgem keeps it tomorrow night! That's 7:00p.m. Saturday. That's not exacty 'through the night'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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