• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I hope anyone attending the Mardi Gras parade in Burlington, VT today will pack a flask of Brandy. It is going to be bitterly cold on Church St.

Still looking at zero from the underside here, though it's close, and winds gusting close to 30.  Morning low (-9) came at least 2 hours after sunrise, as CAA roared in.  WCI at MWN was -85 last hour, -33 with winds 81G92.  That's got to be close to record cold/WCI for March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been snowing here since 9am but only a few tenths.

Its that Arctic air very small flake stuff that almost looks like a mist.  Visibility is very low but not snowing that hard.  It looks like Siberia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't look at the Euro. It says game over on the big dog now.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sky has been full of snow all day, though none makes it to the ground in this dry and turbulent air.  Drove to Augusta today and the two bank temps were 4 and 5 at 11:30, 5 and 6 at 3 PM.  Doubt my temp has gone above 2 or 3, and winds still gusting 30+.  My 1/3" from last evening's flurry is about gone.  Only 0.01" LE, so not much to sublimate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Been snowing here since 9am but only a few tenths.

Its that Arctic air very small flake stuff that almost looks like a mist.  Visibility is very low but not snowing that hard.  It looks like Siberia.

Feels like Siberia. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV felt ok enough to issue an early winter storm watch.

That seems odd. 

I also don't agree that "Overall, this has the potential to be most snow that the majority of the North Country has seen during a single event this season." That's in the NWS discussion and with one model out to sea and the GFS clearly moving eastward ...I dunno...seems like somebody had a few at the UVM game and went to work excited. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The long term Tues-Fri still sounds optimistic from them as of 2:38 pm today:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

As for this cold, brutally cold days have an upside even for skiers. It's a great day to relax by the fire with a good book and drink of choice. Nothin' wrong with that! Especially if it's Saturday :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ThatGirlWhoSkis said:

The long term Tues-Fri still sounds optimistic from them as of 2:38 pm today:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

As for this cold, brutally cold days have an upside even for skiers. It's a great day to relax by the fire with a good book and drink of choice. Nothin' wrong with that! Especially if it's Saturday :) 

Whoops, never mind. I mean, relaxing by the fire w/ a book and a drink are still awesome but the outlook for Tues-Fri not so much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, adk said:

That seems odd. 

I also don't agree that "Overall, this has the potential to be most snow that the majority of the North Country has seen during a single event this season." That's in the NWS discussion and with one model out to sea and the GFS clearly moving eastward ...I dunno...seems like somebody had a few at the UVM game and went to work excited. 

 

As much as I love looking at the big model runs, never bought into it to the scale that its going to be a major snow event.  The upper level low and mesoscale snow on NNW flow and Champlain Valley convergence could actually put BTV and western slopes into a pretty good spot...but for the most of the BTV CWA I think its a scraper type event with maybe Advisory snows over a 24 hour period.  Some upslope spots could get warning criteria, likely Underhill side.

I still do expect eastern ticks as this approaches.  Maybe not in the next 24 hours...but in the final 24 hours, these things always seem to drift east and/or weaker with time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Musings..

High today of 9F.  Very impressive for March 11.   Low was -3.6F which occurred about an hour after sunrise.

Got about an 1" of snow from 2 squalls.  One late yesterday afternoon and one overnight

Saw the east trend on the models today.  When was the last track of a major winter storm over say Boston to give us northern people a bullseye.  Can't remember.  We are long overdue.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

As much as I love looking at the big model runs, never bought into it to the scale that its going to be a major snow event.  The upper level low and mesoscale snow on NNW flow and Champlain Valley convergence could actually put BTV and western slopes into a pretty good spot...but for the most of the BTV CWA I think its a scraper type event with maybe Advisory snows over a 24 hour period.  Some upslope spots could get warning criteria, likely Underhill side.

I still do expect eastern ticks as this approaches.  Maybe not in the next 24 hours...but in the final 24 hours, these things always seem to drift east and/or weaker with time.

Not a good day in weather land.  I have to admit, I'm pretty close to meltdown.   Yesterday, I'm putting the wheels in motion to drive up to Warren Wednesday night.  Went to bed last night with dreamy visions of snow at home up to the north country, and big ski days.  Tonight, not so much.  Tomorrow is another day.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Musings..

High today of 9F.  Very impressive for March 11.   Low was -3.6F which occurred about an hour after sunrise.

Got about an 1" of snow from 2 squalls.  One late yesterday afternoon and one overnight

Saw the east trend on the models today.  When was the last track of a major winter storm over say Boston to give us northern people a bullseye.  Can't remember.  We are long overdue.

 

 

It's been years.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is just a frustrating hobby.   Science is such that, we know a total eclipse of the sun will cross the US on August 21rst and can tell eclipse start time to a second at a given location.  Yet a potential storm 2 days away is impossible to forecast.  3", 10", 14"?  every models vastly different.  Of course the atmosphere is fluid.  Best to just know Tuesday will be a snowy day.  Close the shades and open them up tomorrow.  With daylight saving time models come in an hour later too....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

This is just a frustrating hobby.   Science is such that, we know a total eclipse of the sun will cross the US on August 21rst and can tell eclipse start time to a second at a given location.  Yet a potential storm 2 days away is impossible to forecast.  3", 10", 14"?  every models vastly different.  Of course the atmosphere is fluid.  Best to just know Tuesday will be a snowy day.  Close the shades and open them up tomorrow.  With daylight saving time models come in an hour later too....

Its only hard given the degree of accuracy people expect within the lead time they expect. Frankly I just think anything greater than 24hours notice is worthless. Though not everybody shares my opinion.

12z GFS says "what you talking about willis" to the BTV WINTER DEATH STORM OF THE YEAR warning.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, adk said:

Its only hard given the degree of accuracy people expect within the lead time they expect. Frankly I just think anything greater than 24hours notice is worthless. Though not everybody shares my opinion.

12z GFS says "what you talking about willis" to the BTV WINTER DEATH STORM OF THE YEAR warning.  

Well the last two Euro runs have a massive region wide double digit event but yeah the GFS is saying enjoy your fringe job. It does seem to be the easterly outlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty interesting how on the hillside where our house is, much of the snow is gone save for some thin cover and deeper patches. Go down the road a mile or two and lose 300' elevation and it's way different. Pack is easily 12" and most people's lawns are still covered. All those foggy nights and poor CAD took a toll higher up. It's the one thing I don't like about our elevation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.03” L.E.

 

I didn’t see any specific impetus noted for yesterday’s snow in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, so I’m considering it part of the arctic frontal passage.  The weather has generally cleared out, so the totals above may be it for this event

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 7.2 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that the various wind chill advisory products have expired, the advisories associated with the potential midweek storm will likely be the most prominent feature on the BTV NWS advisory maps.  So, I’ve added the current advisory and projected accumulations maps below.  This event looks like it has the potential to be a bit more productive in this area with respect to accumulation than many of the recent coastal-based synoptic systems, with a general 12-18” indicated from the Greens eastward.

 

12MAR17A.jpg

 

12MAR17B.jpg

 

WWUS41 KBTV 121923

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Burlington VT

323 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

 

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-130900-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0003.170314T1100Z-170316T0000Z/

Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-

Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-

Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-

Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-

Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-

Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-

Eastern Rutland-

Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake,

Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry,

Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh,

South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington,

Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes,

Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction,

Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,

East Wallingford, and Killington

323 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING

THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

 

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday morning

through Wednesday evening.

 

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow.

 

* Accumulations...Generally 6 to 12 inches across northern New

  York, and 8 to 14 inches across central and northern Vermont.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly Tuesday

afternoon through evening.

 

* Timing...The snow is expected to develop Tuesday morning, and

  possibly become heavy at times Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday

  night. An extended period of steady light snow may continue

  through Wednesday. The Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning

  commutes are expected to be especially difficult. 

 

* Locations...Northern New York and Central and Northern Vermont

 

* Impacts...Hazardous winter driving conditions due to snow

  covered roads, low visibility, and blowing and drifting snow.

 

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, highest on

  Wednesday.

 

* Temperatures...Lows 10 to 15 above. Highs in the lower 20s.

 

* Visibilities...Down to one quarter mile or less at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant

snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor

the latest forecasts.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go

to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather

situation.

 

&&

 

$$

 

BANACOS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eyewall...all of these runs have textbook Champlain Valley convergence.  You will do fine.  Don't worry about it.  As the low level flow goes northerly it'll really pile up in the Champlain Valley.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Eyewall...all of these runs have textbook Champlain Valley convergence.  You will do fine.  Don't worry about it.  As the low level flow goes northerly it'll really pile up in the Champlain Valley.

 

Yeah that was mentioned in the AFD and they mentioned that could takes above 14" if it pans out. That is very encouraging. That is what happened in the Feb system. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if you go by the BTV maps they range from 3" for Burlington in the at least this much to 20" in the potential for this much. Most likely is 11"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big fire at the building immediately adjacent to the Notchbrook General Store on Mountain Road/108.  Sounded intense on the radio as the portables are patched into Lamoille County 911 Dispatch. Photos by friend M.Hitelman.

17155423_10154673132173579_3543383873420

17203063_10154673132203579_6379456785510

17103296_10154673132208579_6508017512236

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.