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Zelocita Weather

Potential Hermine Impacts

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3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

like i didn't know that..

B)

"I think we've got a hurricane already.  Gusts to 69 MPH just offshore !"

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2 minutes ago, Pamela said:

I have to disagree with you there; with that much tropical moisture places like NYC and Long Island are looking at an extended soaking rain and probably a good deal of urban flooding as well.

You think the models are wrong?

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2 minutes ago, Pamela said:

I have to disagree with you there; with that much tropical moisture places like NYC and Long Island are looking at an extended soaking rain and probably a good deal of urban flooding as well.

I'm still trying to find a model that shows that.  The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC 

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1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

I'm still trying to find a model that shows that.  The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC 

 

The Canadien is wet...the NAM is very close...and your global (GFS) is really only 50 miles SE from being a huge rainmaker...these models are no good with tropical systems...so you have to expect larger potential margins for error than with a mid latitude cyclone...

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4 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

I'm still trying to find a model that shows that.  The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC 

The 12z GFS had more than an inch at ISP, but very little at NYC.

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10 minutes ago, Pamela said:

I have to disagree with you there; with that much tropical moisture places like NYC and Long Island are looking at an extended soaking rain and probably a good deal of urban flooding as well.

Wow you are differing with every forecast

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23 hours ago, Allsnow said:

the worst of the weather for the metro area would be sunday evening into monday morning. Winds 50-70 knots and driving rain. this is if the euro is correct

It's out and it's the absolute worst case scenario possible for Delaware and eastern Maryland. I'm talking really really bad...

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It's out and it's the absolute worst case scenario possible for Delaware and eastern Maryland. I'm talking really really bad...

Say a prayer that it's wrong cause that would literally destroy the Delmarva 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Say a prayer that it's wrong cause that would literally destroy the Delmarva 

what's the track and strength....I only see it out to 30 hrs and it's way east at that point

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Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Someone in mid Atlantic said euro is way ots through hr 24

its well east, but it has not begun the retrograde west yet-makes it out to 70 degrees longitude at hour 30

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

what's the track and strength....I only see it out to 30 hrs and it's way east at that point

It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb 

that's a far cry from yesterday's 983.     this is trender weaker and weaker MB

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

that's a far cry from yesterday's 983.     this is trender weaker and weaker MB

It makes landfall in the Delmarva. That would be devastating 

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18 minutes ago, Pamela said:

 

The Canadien is wet...the NAM is very close...and your global (GFS) is really only 50 miles SE from being a huge rainmaker...these models are no good with tropical systems...so you have to expect larger potential margins for error than with a mid latitude cyclone...

Even on 12z GFS the precipitation field is very nearby:

PA_000-120_0000.gif

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb 

You sure you have the right Euro run?

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29 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

I'm still trying to find a model that shows that.  The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC 

I was just going to say the same kinda thing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the models seem to keep the moderate/heavy precip south of NYC but the wind field is a different story.

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Just now, larrye said:

I was just going to say the same kinda thing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the models seem to keep the moderate/heavy precip south of NYC but the wind field is a different story.

12z Canadien of course a major rain event

PR_000-120_0000.gif

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