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CT Rain

All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread II

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38 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I like the SPC outlook with slight risk to our west tomorrow - but could be interesting by evening as low level shear ramps up. 

Like the look, especially back in CNY.

hmuh_max_f001-f048_NE (1).png

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I like the SPC outlook with slight risk to our west tomorrow - but could be interesting by evening as low level shear ramps up. 

SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f045.gif

I haven't had time to look much.  What time do you think the timing is for here?  Working until 5 and would like to chase but traffic sucks at that time.  Rockledge is always a good place 

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Big theta-e push tomorrow evening as well. Even though srfc warm front may be north at the time, always like the look of high MU CAPE. 

 

Tomorrow afternoon is progged for now across western and SW SNE, but could spread east.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Big theta-e push tomorrow evening as well. Even though srfc warm front may be north at the time, always like the look of high MU CAPE. 

 

Tomorrow afternoon is progged for now across western and SW SNE, but could spread east.

Severe threat with AM warm front?  Maybe a Long Island special or coastal CT...possible TOR possibility?

NAM also has tornado potential in afternoon...gotta watch Sfc winds and when llvl jet increases.  Storm mode will be important too...should end up linear but could see embedded mesos or maybe discrete initially

 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Severe threat with AM warm front?  Maybe a Long Island special or coastal CT...possible TOR possibility?

NAM also has tornado potential in afternoon...gotta watch Sfc winds and when llvl jet increases.  Storm mode will be important too...should end up linear but could see embedded mesos or maybe discrete initially

 

 

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan says NAM definitely has a TOR threat tomorrow along the warm front 

It's there. The 4km hangs the front up in northern MA (based on the wind fields). The front will at least be E/W versus NW/SE, so storms should be able to follow the front rather than just cross it briefly.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It's there. The 4km hangs the front up in northern MA (based on the wind fields). The front will at least be E/W versus NW/SE, so storms should be able to follow the front rather than just cross it briefly.

That's a pretty nice look on the NAM. Definitely a risk wherever it hangs up. 

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Just looking at things now, almost looks like front hangs up near and south of pike tomorrow aftn on the 4km NAM. That's a potent look down in CT and RI and maybe even SE MA.

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11 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

The latest convective outlook mentioned the "conditional tornado risk" as well.

And a conditional higher end tornado risk at that (for New England of course). Talking with Ryan, he's right, some models popping off 30+ knots of 0-1km shear tomorrow. That's more than enough for a quick EF2.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And a conditional higher end tornado risk at that (for New England of course). Talking with Ryan, he's right, some models popping off 30+ knots of 0-1km shear tomorrow. That's more than enough for a quick EF2.

ECMWF doesn't look as bullish to me but still intruguing

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18Z nam stilll pretty impressive behind the front. Winds are still backed to more srly with westerly flow aloft at 850 and above. If round 2 comes in from NY state...seems like spinner threat is there. Nothing really set in stone as both WF placement and round 2 stuff aren't exactly in agreement...but setup is interesting. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18Z nam stilll pretty impressive behind the front. Winds are still backed to more srly with westerly flow aloft at 850 and above. If round 2 comes in from NY state...seems like spinner threat is there. Nothing really set in stone as both WF placement and round 2 stuff aren't exactly in agreement...but setup is interesting. 

 

Yeah 18z NAM gets really sweet around midnight tomorrow night FWIW. 12km NAM is almost 4 on the STP which is pretty impressive.

Still a threat during the day with low level wind remaining backed. We'll see. 

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29 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

Yeah 18z NAM gets really sweet around midnight tomorrow night FWIW. 12km NAM is almost 4 on the STP which is pretty impressive.

Still a threat during the day with low level wind remaining backed. We'll see. 

The 4km 18z bufkit for BDL is pretty jaw dropping for tomorrow evening.  That hodograph is about as good as it gets here combined with the instability.  Lapse rates aren't really pathetic either (6 C/KM)...but that shear of 30-35 m/s is pretty impressive. 0-6km cape between 250-300 J as well.

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16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Are their any notable severe weather analogs from the past that tomorrow might compare to?

meh I would't really focus all too much on analogs when it comes to convective events really.  In the end, it all comes down to timing and getting all the best parameters to line up...some events that will happen and others it won't.  We can have a setup pinging 5/31/98 as an analog but if timing is different it's not going to pan out that way.  Right now we are seeing favorable parameters for not only severe weather but a few tornadoes but its a matter of how everything comes together 

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The 5-9 timeframe I think is period to watch.  The 0z NAM continues to be quite impressive and maximizes cape/shear during the evening 

Where? What zones/areas? Any hope for northeast RI?

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44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The 5-9 timeframe I think is period to watch.  The 0z NAM continues to be quite impressive and maximizes cape/shear during the evening 

lost the am stuff

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8 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said:

Where? What zones/areas? Any hope for northeast RI?

I would think the better tornado threat would be for areas further west...Hudson Valley into N NJ and into western/central CT.  One question is timing and nocturnal tornadoes are very tough to come by here (although the models do keep the ingredients for that in lace well into the evening) but another question is storm mode and by that point I think activity will become more linear so wind damage would be primary threat but can't rule out an embedded meso 

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I'm somewhat intrigued by the level of low level shear being depicted tomorrow in the Hudson Valley/perhaps eastward into western portions of the region. That tornado near Indianapolis today happened in a similar low level environment, although the poor mid level lapse rates with a real lack of an EML and modest deep layer shear still don't exactly scream full blown supercells. Would help if you could maximize the level of 0-3 km MLCAPE via augmentation of the low level lapse rates (the Indy tornado occurred on a gradient of this).

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40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would think the better tornado threat would be for areas further west...Hudson Valley into N NJ and into western/central CT.  One question is timing and nocturnal tornadoes are very tough to come by here (although the models do keep the ingredients for that in lace well into the evening) but another question is storm mode and by that point I think activity will become more linear so wind damage would be primary threat but can't rule out an embedded meso 

Sry, not looking for tornadoes, just looking for a t-storm. Any hope for NE RI? Tomorrow? 

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NCAR ensembles remain bullish but most of the other hires stuff keeps things pretty quiet over SNE until 0z. That's definitely the concern today.

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