John1122 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 56 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Thanks John, a visual representation for those who want to see it. It was Mr Wolf giving the gfes pbp. I can understand with the lack of an avatar and our posts being right beside of each other's. I need to pick one. That said, still encouraged by those means, shows that our whole region is still well in play for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: Heck, right now everything past D3 is moderately erratic. We've seen many times how the -EPO can be really stubborn about breaking down. So I could see it leading to reloads. I just wish it would move east and act as a +PNA as it did a few years ago when we were snowy and sub zero. Oh yeah. Agree. In a nutshell, I think this pattern that we have been locked into for about 45 days...is about to change. Oddly, some recent runs are hinting at a +PNA w the most recent 12z GFS depicting that possibility very late. The weeklies liked that idea as well...maybe with a weak Greenland block(from memory without looking). How that trough ejects will impact next Saturday. Bout all I can say with any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 MRX doesn't think much of next weekend. Let's hope it comes back around for us. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX doesn't think much of next weekend. Let's hope it comes back around for us. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk They are typically very conservative anyways, but I wouldn't stick a fork in her yet. -Seven from weatherquest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 JMA is juicy, but when is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: JMA is juicy, but when is it not? well hopefully the next gfs run will be better don't know what the euro said . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 They are typically very conservative anyways, but I wouldn't stick a fork in her yet. -Seven from weatherquest Yes you are correct. Would be nice to get Matt over here. Honestly I don't think he follows the weather that much, especially our weather. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 first wave on Friday into Saturday drops a few inches in valley second wave now hitting on sunday as of 186 this thing doing all kinds of crazy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 17 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: first wave on Friday into Saturday drops a few inches in valley second wave now hitting on sunday as of 186 this thing doing all kinds of crazy . Better run indeed.Notice the 5H has been showing a long wave through,now it's bending on the 18z and showing a more neutral tilted trough with the trough axis going into the Valley,who knows if its right but better right now anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Better look shows why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The 18z GFS has two separate waves. IMO, not sure how believable that run is. At 100h, a piece of energy descends out of Canada into the northern Plains in Clipper fashion. Pretty reasonable to that point. As it nears the EC, it interacts with energy pushing westward from a stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast. As that happens, the second wave at 150h hits the coast of Washington state and goes up and over the transient western ridge. It then rides the front of the incoming ridge southward into NE TN. Meanwhile, off the northern Pacific coast of Canada, a disturbance originates on the coast, spins West in the eastern Pacific, and boomerangs back into Washington state. IMO that positive tilted trough in the eastern Pacific is an error both in strength and axis orientation. That oddity gets my attention. Could it be right? Sure. But IMO until it aligns correctly in relation to the hp to its north in AK, the models are going to keep spitting out the flavor of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 As is, the 18z GFS is a very active pattern. Even a third storm rolls through around 276. Clown maps will be nice, but just one of many possible solutions. I can't say that pattern screams winter, but it does seem that whenever the transient eastern trough nears the GOM or SE coast ...something develops (edit). As Jax showed above, tons of moving parts. Not boring, but nearly impossible to decipher after about 130... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: As is, the 18z GFS is a very active pattern. Even a third storm rolls through around 276. Clown maps will be nice, but just one of many possible solutions. I can't say that pattern screams winter, but it does seem that whenever the transient eastern trough nears the GOM...it is open for business. As Jax showed above, tons of moving parts. Not boring, but nearly impossible to decipher after about 130... There should be a warm up around mid month,it wont last long. Around Seoul,South Korea correlates decently using the East Asia Rule for Nashville.For you guys in the east Valley it's into the Sea Of Japan east of Seoul.When using the east Asia rule it's 6-10 days from point A to point B,i split the difference and go 8 days but depending on the pattern could easily be -1or2+1or2 days.But anyways you can see the heights rising into Korea there should be some ridge around the Valley and this should basically move out the the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 29 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: There should be a warm up around mid month,it wont last long. Around Seoul,South Korea correlates decently using the East Asia Rule for Nashville.For you guys in the east Valley it's into the Sea Of Japan east of Seoul.When using the east Asia rule it's 6-10 days from point A to point B,i split the difference and go 8 days but depending on the pattern could easily be -1or2+1or2 days.But anyways you can see the heights rising into Korea there should be some ridge around the Valley and this should basically move out the the NE Those low heights east of Japan should kick that entire trough out of the western (edit) US with the downstream wave pattern. It did it earlier this month and should be showing up on the models. So I don't disagree. -WPO is generally a good thing and really should not allow that positively tilted trough in the west. I imagine the physics work out somehow, but generally have to think a western ridge/eastern trough pattern will show at some point. This is a +WPO. Your image would be part of the opposite I think - a negative WPO. Credit to ESRL for the following image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Those low heights east of Japan should kick that entire trough out of the western (edit) US with the downstream wave pattern. It did it earlier this month and should be showing up on the models. So I don't disagree. -WPO is generally a good thing and really should not allow that positively tilted trough in the west. I imagine the physics work out somehow, but generally have to think a western ridge/eastern trough pattern will show at some point. This is a +WPO. Your image would be part of the opposite - a negative WPO. Credit to ESRL for the following image. If you look at the trough axis that went through East Asia a couple days ago it matches up rather well with the maps i posted above from tonights 18z GFS run,dont mean its right but its just a tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 MJO looked better yesterday.SOI rosed back into a more Nina pattern today .COD it is..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 need to figure out why i keep getting Nov pics even after i cleaned out my cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Para updated,this is what we want to see.The storm goes from long wave trough into a neutral tilted trough some where in this area into the plains,then you get this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Para updated,this is what we want to see.The storm goes from long wave trough into a neutral tilted trough some where in this area into the plains,then you get this Those say yesterday's date the para ain't run since yesterday.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Para updated,this is what we want to see.The storm goes from long wave trough into a neutral tilted trough some where in this area into the plains,then you get this Curious to see if the Para leads the OP again. The 18z op already looked improved over the 12z. The last few times the OP has leaned toward the prior Para solution. Edit: That is yesterday's run. Didn't even notice myself at 1st. Strangely the 18z yesterday ran and was up and now it's gone. So I can see how it'd be easy to think it updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Those say yesterday's date the para ain't run since yesterday.? Yeah,just noticed the date.Duh.But either way, this is what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 jet is coming in further N, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 No long wave trough this time,lets see what happens No long wave trough so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Nothing doing on the GFS really. First wave pops a few snow showers than amount to little. Second wave gone. Possible clipper that looks to bring rain by 200 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Will have to see if we're just in the storm losing portion of the program or if that's the GFS getting it right this time. I think the models have now shown almost everything that can possibly happen over the past 3 days. So one of them is bound to be right. Who knows which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: Nothing doing on the GFS really. First wave pops a few snow showers than amount to little. Second wave gone. Possible clipper that looks to bring rain by 200 hours out. Yeah but the GFS is showing what i was showing,it should be a more neutral tilted trough,not a long wave,really believe this develops further west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Day 9-9.5 a little freezing rain before warming. Gfs keeps a system at day 9 every day it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 CMC still has the storm. Pops gulf low and tracks it about 150 miles south of Mobile etc. Pretty great track for this range on models. But it's once again a who knows? kind of situation as the models struggle very very hard with anything remotely resembling consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Trough starts to develop around this time into North Korea into the Yellow Sea,really believe this will look like the Para showed earlier..JMHO Edit:As far as snow goes i have no clue,but this neutral tilted trough should be west of what the GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah but the GFS is showing what i was showing,it should be a more neutral tilted trough,not a long wave,really believe this develops further west of us I hope so, I know the GFS will feature surface solutions that sometimes don't match up with what upper patterns should produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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