Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[bluewave]

The big story in the Arctic last few summers has been the record warmth in the Kara and Barents seas areas with the very low sea ice extent there.

 

https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/august-2025-arctic-sea-ice

Regional Sea Ice

 

The Atlantic side of the Arctic has had very low ice extent all summer, with the Barents and Kara Seas almost entirely open water for much of late July and August. The pack ice edge at the end of August was near 82N, 200 km or more north of the Svalbard and Franz Josef Land archipelagos. 

The climate impacts of the lack of ice were dramatic. The only real-time climate station in Franz Josef Land, Polargmo Im. E. T. Krenkelja on Heiss Island at 80.6N, did not record a temperature below freezing in August. At Wiese (Vize) Island, a small island in the northernmost Kara Sea at 79.5N, the temperature has remained above freezing since July 16 (47 days as of September 2). Last summer, the longest freeze-free period there was 11 days and in summer 2023 the longest was only 4 days. 

On the Pacific side of the North Pole, ice loss in the Beaufort Sea increased during August, but plenty of ice remained at the end of the month in the eastern part of the basin. The Northern Sea Route, along the north coast of Russia, was open to most vessels by late August. The Northwest Passage, connecting Canadian waters with the Bering Strait, was close to being open for non ice-hardened traffic, but mobile areas of higher concentration ice persisted at the end of August in Amundsen Gulf, the southeastern-most portion of Beaufort Sea.

[FPizz]

[ORH_wxman]

We've potentially reached the extent minimum on Jaxa (4.55 mil sq km on 9/8). We're about 50k above that now. We'll see if there are enough drops in the coming week to offset gains. If we have indeed reached the extent minimum, it would rank 14th lowest. 

 

Area is even murkier...we're only about 10k above the min of 2.70 million sq km. We're currently 5th lowest for area. We'd need to drop below 2.63 million sq km to reach 4th lowest. 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've potentially reached the extent minimum on Jaxa (4.55 mil sq km on 9/8). We're about 50k above that now. We'll see if there are enough drops in the coming week to offset gains. If we have indeed reached the extent minimum, it would rank 14th lowest. 

 

Area is even murkier...we're only about 10k above the min of 2.70 million sq km. We're currently 5th lowest for area. We'd need to drop below 2.63 million sq km to reach 4th lowest. 

This is probably a dumb question.  With area a little better, can that lead to more extent next season, or is there not really a correlation 

[bluewave]

The volume is close to the lowest on record for this time of year since the ice is so thin due to the record MYI melt over the years. This allows the big disparity between extent and area. As the concentration is also near record lows.
 

 

Zack Labe

 

‪@zacklabe.com‬

 

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⚠️ While extent will not be setting any annual minimum records this year, the average thickness of #Arctic sea ice is actually at historic lows for this time of year (in the dataset by PIOMAS). Thinner ice is younger and usually more fragile. More graphics of volume: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

 

ALT

September 10, 2025 at 8:07 AM

Everybody can

 

 

[roardog]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The volume is close to the lowest on record for this time of year since the ice is so thin due to the record MYI melt over the years. This allows the big disparity between extent and area. As the concentration is also near record lows.
 

 

Zack Labe

 

‪@zacklabe.com‬

 

Follow

⚠️ While extent will not be setting any annual minimum records this year, the average thickness of #Arctic sea ice is actually at historic lows for this time of year (in the dataset by PIOMAS). Thinner ice is younger and usually more fragile. More graphics of volume: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

 

ALT

September 10, 2025 at 8:07 AM

Everybody can

 

 

Yeah. Volume doesn't really tell you much about what's happening now. The low volume is the result of decades of warming. We could have an asteroid impact the planet today and cool it 3 degrees and the volume would still be low next year. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. Volume doesn't really tell you much about what's happening now. The low volume is the result of decades of warming. We could have an asteroid impact the planet today and cool it 3 degrees and the volume would still be low next year. 

The low volume is why it was so much easier to reach the North Pole this summer. Extent is only a one dimensional measurement of where the edge of the ice field is. But now there is so much open and thin ice behind that edge that it’s losing its relevance as a useful metric for describing the state of the sea ice. Since in the old days there was solid MYI older ice behind the edge of where the ice was.
 

 

The Barents Observer

 

‪@thebarentsobserver.com‬

 

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"What struck me most: the ease of access through what used to be a far more ice-covered region", expedition leader Jochen Knies tells us, "We had been sailing through open water at 6–8 knots, something unthinkable three decades ago." See our report straight from the North Pole! #climatechange

“I didn’t hear the usual grinding of ice”

When a Norwegian vessel reached the North Pole this week, the scientific team made an alarming discovery.

 

www.thebarentsobserver.com

September 4, 2025 at 7:09

[ORH_wxman]

On 9/12/2025 at 1:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We've potentially reached the extent minimum on Jaxa (4.55 mil sq km on 9/8). We're about 50k above that now. We'll see if there are enough drops in the coming week to offset gains. If we have indeed reached the extent minimum, it would rank 14th lowest. 

 

Area is even murkier...we're only about 10k above the min of 2.70 million sq km. We're currently 5th lowest for area. We'd need to drop below 2.63 million sq km to reach 4th lowest. 

We've had big area increases over the weekend, so pretty safe to call the area minimum now too at 2.7055 million sq km. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've had big area increases over the weekend, so pretty safe to call the area minimum now too at 2.7055 million sq km. 

If this indeed turns out to be this year's nadir, I find that interesting - it'd be the earliest of all recent seasons, regardless of magnitudes, whence the nadir took place

 

[Prismshine Productions]

We've potentially reached the extent minimum on Jaxa (4.55 mil sq km on 9/8). We're about 50k above that now. We'll see if there are enough drops in the coming week to offset gains. If we have indeed reached the extent minimum, it would rank 14th lowest. 
 
Area is even murkier...we're only about 10k above the min of 2.70 million sq km. We're currently 5th lowest for area. We'd need to drop below 2.63 million sq km to reach 4th lowest. 

There a product link to that data?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[bluewave]

Another case of the Arctic sea ice record lows occurring outside of the annual minimum period in September since 2012.

 

[frontranger8]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another case of the Arctic sea ice record lows occurring outside of the annual minimum period in September since 2012.

 

Should be noted that the first graph posted is only a small part of the Arctic.

[chubbs]

42 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Should be noted that the first graph posted is only a small part of the Arctic.

Sea ice is close to normal on the Pacific side; but well below normal on the Atlantic side and Canada. 

[frontranger8]

4 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Sea ice is close to normal on the Pacific side; but well below normal on the Atlantic side and Canada. 

Yep. Canada will explode over the next week or so, though.

[WolfStock1]

52 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Should be noted that the first graph posted is only a small part of the Arctic.

Indeed - seems a bit misleading to present a subset of the data (the area around Canada) and discuss it as if it was the full set (the Arctic).   That's the kind of thing that causes finger-pointing.

 

[donsutherland1]

Overall, Arctic sea ice extent is far below the prior record for December 1st. On December 1, Arctic sea ice extent was 9.342 million square kilometers. That was 419,000 square kilometers below the prior record that had been set in 2016. The 2010s average was 10.450 million square kilometers. The 1980s figure was 12.137 million square kilometers. 2024 and 2025 is the first case where two consecutive years saw less than 10 million square kilometers on December 1.

Source: JAXA

[tacoman25]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

Indeed - seems a bit misleading to present a subset of the data (the area around Canada) and discuss it as if it was the full set (the Arctic).   That's the kind of thing that causes finger-pointing.

 

The author admitted he was frustrated that his climate posts weren't getting enough attention...

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

The author admitted he was frustrated that his climate posts weren't getting enough attention...

So funny how the "Denier" posts always get shitposted here, but like I've said a million times, there are plenty of trash climate activist posts to equal the denier crap.  The people here fall hook, line and sinker for those, it is pretty funny.  

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Should be noted that the first graph posted is only a small part of the Arctic.

That smaller part is a representative subset of the wider Atlantic part of the Arctic which is also at record lows for the date. 

You can see record daily lows extending over to Svalbard on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Due to geography and season, the September records have been more Pacific focused like in September 2012.

So the record lows on the Atlantic side caused the entire Arctic to have a record low Jaxa extent on December 2nd. The extent is the lowest on record for the date at -425K below the previous record set in 2016.

Winter records are usually more on the Atlantic side over the years since it’s easier to have open water extending into the Barents and Kara seas due to Atlantification of the Arctic.

There is a much narrower opening to the Arctic near Alaska so it’s easier for the area north of Alaska to freeze over by this time of year.
 

Wider Arctic low matches regional lows across the Arctic.

 

 

[chubbs]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That smaller part is a representative subset of the wider Atlantic part of the Arctic which is also at record lows for the date. 

You can see record daily lows extending over to Svalbard on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Due to geography and season, the September records have been more Pacific focused like in September 2012.

So the record lows on the Atlantic side caused the entire Arctic to have a record low Jaxa extent on December 2nd. The extent is the lowest on record for the date at -425K below the previous record set in 2016.

Winter records are usually more on the Atlantic side over the years since it’s easier to have open water extending into the Barents and Kara seas due to Atlantification of the Arctic.

There is a much narrower opening to the Arctic near Alaska so it’s easier for the area north of Alaska to freeze over by this time of year.
 

Wider Arctic low matches regional lows across the Arctic.

 

 

Northern Hemi snow has also been running low for most of the cold season, record low at times. This can shift quickly. Currently Eurasia is very low, while N America is above average with recent snow advance.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Northern Hemi snow has also been running low for most of the cold season, record low at times. This can shift quickly. Currently Eurasia is very low, while N America is above average with recent snow advance.

...

Been noticing that the coldest 500 mb height anomalies ( relative to normals...) have been persistently over our side of the hemisphere this late autumn.  I'm curious what those global monthly temperature anomalies (from NASA and NOAA) look like ... the color encoded versions. I have a feeling we have a "CC denial-enabling" (little sarcasm there..) deepest blue plume that's been biasing North America. 

At present, the tracking at Climate Reanalyzer's site has 2025 flirting with the 3rd warmest per date.  3 days ago ... it 2025 was #1 per date.  The curve's been meandering up and down within the top 5 - in principle, we're still turning the heat up on the frogs. So, in order for cryo to be advancing during that it's probable that N/A wins the cold trophy for this late autumn and (so far) front loading winter period.

[csnavywx]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been noticing that the coldest 500 mb height anomalies ( relative to normals...) have been persistently over our side of the hemisphere this late autumn.  I'm curious what those global monthly temperature anomalies (from NASA and NOAA) look like ... the color encoded versions. I have a feeling we have a "CC denial-enabling" (little sarcasm there..) deepest blue plume that's been biasing North America. 

At present, the tracking at Climate Reanalyzer's site has 2025 flirting with the 3rd warmest per date.  3 days ago ... it 2025 was #1 per date.  The curve's been meandering up and down within the top 5 - in principle, we're still turning the heat up on the frogs. So, in order for cryo to be advancing during that it's probable that N/A wins the cold trophy for this late autumn and (so far) front loading winter period.

Just preconditioning the next drop, barring steady AMOC weakening. I expect noise from the usual suspects to get louder right up until the point that they (once again) go silent. Difference this go-around is that the cave-out is likely to come from the Atlantic front this time around since most of the MYI losses that could happen on the Pacific front already have. The vicious feedback of shoaling AW layer --> sensible+latent heat flux to trop --> stronger Ural/Scand. ridging --> PV disruption --> strengthening meridional transport --> shoaling AW layer has a lot further to go if CMIP6 is onto something. And winter warming is necessary to precondition the next drop anyways.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Just preconditioning the next drop, barring steady AMOC weakening. I expect noise from the usual suspects to get louder right up until the point that they (once again) go silent. Difference this go-around is that the cave-out is likely to come from the Atlantic front this time around since most of the MYI losses that could happen on the Pacific front already have. The vicious feedback of shoaling AW layer --> sensible+latent heat flux to trop --> stronger Ural/Scand. ridging --> PV disruption --> strengthening meridional transport --> shoaling AW layer has a lot further to go if CMIP6 is onto something. And winter warming is necessary to precondition the next drop anyways.

OH I'm a huge believer in non-Markovian memory in the systems of climate.  The oceanic-atmospheric coupling is definitely got a memory where ( probably counter to a lot if intuition) the winter's positive(negative) meanders tend to foretell the summer's higher(lower) - this is more so on the positive side in present era, as the background state is a non-linear forcing that boosts the synergistic result in the direction. This is all immensely complex because it's not the Air, vs the Ocean in this sense, but the emergent property of the ocean-atmosphere quasi coupled state. If that emergent property lends to warmth, well?  Sometimes the signal is buried in the noise, making all this an extra special kind of scary... Oh, like the whole world surging a whole degree C (2023) out of seemingly nowhere.   hmm?