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August 2016 temperature forecast contest


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Don Sutherland1 sent me this a week ago by private message (holidays) ...

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.9       1.2       1.0             0.6       1.6     0.4               0.3       1.4      1.0

I will post my forecasts on Sunday evening. Once again, the above numbers are for Don S. 

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On July 22, 2016 at 7:28 PM, Roger Smith said:

As always, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normal values, for these nine locations:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Deadline is 06z on Monday, August 1st. Good luck. 

DCA +1.1 

NYC +1.1

BOS  +0.9

ORD  +2.6

ATL +2.2

IAH  +1.3

DEN  -0.5

PHX  0.0

SEA -1.0

 

 

 

 

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Been trying to get in to put my numbers in since 2:30 am! This was all I could get-

Parse error: syntax error, unexpected end of file, expecting variable (T_VARIABLE) or heredoc end (T_END_HEREDOC) or ${ (T_DOLLAR_OPEN_CURLY_BRACES) or {$ (T_CURLY_OPEN) in /home/admin/public_html/bb/datastore/cacheKeys.547d8b544f.php on line 4

Fatal error: Uncaught exception 'ErrorException' with message 'array_merge(): Argument #2 is not an array' in /home/admin/public_html/bb/system/Settings/Settings.php:147 Stack trace: #0 [internal function]: IPS\IPS::errorHandler(2, 'array_merge(): ...', '/home/admin/pub...', 147, Array) #1 /home/admin/public_html/bb/system/Settings/Settings.php(147): array_merge(Array, NULL) #2 /home/admin/public_html/bb/system/Settings/Settings.php(88): IPS\_Settings->loadFromDb() #3 /home/admin/public_html/bb/system/Dispatcher/Standard.php(293): IPS\_Settings->__get('task_use_cron') #4 [internal function]: IPS\Dispatcher\_Standard->__destruct() #5 {main} thrown in /home/admin/public_html/bb/system/Settings/Settings.php on line 147

Anyway, what I get formissing thecut off again-

DCA:  +2.2

NYC:  +1.8

BOS: +1.6

ORD: +1.6

ATL: +1.9

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +2.1

PHX: +1.1

SEA:  0.0

 

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Table of forecasts for August 2016

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Damage in Tolland _________ +3.5_ +2.7_ +2.3 ___ +1.0_ +1.9_ +1.7 ____ +1.7_ +2.0_ +0.3 

Rjay _____________________+3.0_ +3.0_ +3.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.5__ 0.0 ____ +2.0_ +1.0_ +1.0

RodneyS _________________ +2.6_ +2.1_ +2.0 ___ +2.2_ +3.8_ --0.1 ____ +4.0_ --0.3_ --0.8

dmillz25 __________________+2.5_ +3.0_ +2.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.2_ +1.7 ____ +2.0_ +1.3_ +1.5

OHweather _______________ +2.2_ +2.5_ +2.3 ___ +1.0_ +1.8_ +1.5 ____ +1.0_ +1.5_ +1.0

wxdude64 ________________ +2.2_ +1.8_ +1.6 ___ +1.6_ +1.9_ +1.0 ____ +2.1_ +1.1__ 0.0 

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +2.1_ +2.4_ +2.6 ___ +2.7_ +1.2_ +1.3 ____ +1.9_ +2.1_ +1.1

Mallow ___________________ +2.1_ +1.6_ +1.1 ___ +1.5_ +2.2_ +1.8 ____ +3.4_ +2.9_ +0.5

Maxim ___________________ +2.0_ +2.2_ +2.3 ___ +2.5_ +2.0_ +1.5 ____ +1.7_ +1.0_ +1.0

Stebo ____________________ +1.9_ +1.2_ +0.8 ___ +1.5_ +1.3_ +0.2 ____ --0.7_ +0.8_ --1.5

 

Consensus ________________ +1.9_ +1.6_ +1.3 ___ +1.5_ +1.9_ +1.2 ____ +1.7_ +1.3_ +0.5

 

wxallannj _________________ +1.7_ +1.1_ +1.1 ___ +0.9_ +1.7_ +1.3 ____ +0.7_ +1.4_ --0.5

blazess556 _______________ +1.6_ +1.0_ +0.6 ___ +1.6_ +1.1_ +0.4 ____ --0.9_ +0.7_ --1.2

BKViking _________________ +1.5_ +1.7_ +1.5 ___ +1.5_ +1.8_ +0.9 ____ +1.0_ +0.7_ --1.0

SD ______________________ +1.5_ +1.5_ +1.0 ___ +1.0_ +1.0_ +1.0 ____ +1.0_ +1.5_ +0.5

Roger Smith ______________ +1.5_ +1.5_ +1.3 ___ +1.5_ +2.0_ +0.8 ____ +2.0_ --0.5_ +1.5

Tenman Johnson __________ +1.1_ +1.1_ +0.9 ___ +2.6_ +2.2_ +1.3 ____ --0.5 __ 0.0_ --1.0

DonSutherland.1 __________ +0.9_ +1.2_ +1.0 ___ +0.6_ +1.6_ +0.4 ____ +0.3_ +1.4_ +1.0

Tom _____________________+0.9_ +0.7_ +0.3 ___ +0.5_ +1.1_ +1.2 ____ +0.8_ +1.2_ --0.5

Midlo Snow Maker _________ +0.7_ +0.5_ --0.4 ___ +1.6_ +2.1_ +1.9 ____ +2.0_ +1.9_ +2.1

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

 

Notes: Consensus is 10th ranked of 19 forecasts. Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded.

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Sorry, I thought I had posted that there would be no time penalties this month, just sent the late folks a private message so we're all playing for full points this month. 

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (5d) _____ +1.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.2 __ +4.3 _ +3.2 _ +2.1 ___ --0.1 _ --4.7 _ --0.4

_______ (10d) _____ +1.9 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 __ +3.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.9 ___ +1.0 _ --2.3 _ --1.6

_______ (12d) _____ +3.2 _ +1.7 _ +3.6 __ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.4 ___ +0.3 _ --2.5 _ --0.3

_______ (15d) _____ +4.8 _ +3.4 _ +4.3 __ +4.1 _ +2.9 _ +2.2 ___ +0.3 _ --1.5 _ +1.1

_______ (16d) _____ +5.0 _ +3.7 _ +4.2 __ +4.2 _ +3.0 _ +1.7 ___ +0.2 _ --1.1 _ +1.4

_______ (17d) _____ +5.0 _ +3.8 _ +4.3 __ +4.3 _ +3.1 _ +1.1 ___ +0.2 _ --0.9 _ +1.3

_______ (18d) _____ +5.0 _ +3.8 _ +4.5 __ +4.4 _ +3.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.4 _ --0.9 _ +1.7

_______ (19d) _____ +5.0 _ +3.9 _ +4.3 __ +4.3 _ +3.2 _ +0.7 ____ 0.0 _ --0.9 _ +2.4

_______ (20d) _____ +5.0 _ +3.8 _ +4.3 __ +4.1 _ +3.2 _ +0.6 ___ --0.5 _ --1.1 _ +2.8

_______ (21d) _____ +5.0 _ +3.8 _ +4.1 __ +3.6 _ +3.1 _ +0.4 ___ --0.5 _ --1.2 _ +2.6

_______ (22d) _____ +4.7 _ +3.5 _ +4.0 __ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +0.2 ___ --0.4 _ --1.3 _ +2.4

_______ (p29d) ____ +4.0 _ +3.7 _ +3.7 __ +3.0 _ +2.7 _ --0.1 ___ --0.7 _ --1.2 _ +2.1

_______ (p31d) ____ +3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _ --1.2 _ +2.0

updates most days to end of month now ... seasonal max table posted below ...

BOS tied earlier mark of 98 on 12th and DCA new mark of 101 on 13th, 95 SEA on 19th.

PDX had 100 tying an earlier max in June -- Mallow and I have forecasts for that one.)

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Update on seasonal max contest, as IAH edges up to 101 (9th) ... latest DCA to 101 (13th) ...

SEA 95 on Aug 19th. Max at PDX is 100.

 

<<<< Seasonal Max Contest -- Ongoing scores >>>

 

Errors will be adjusted as new seasonal max values are reported. The current values are at the top of the table.

Errors in red indicate forecasts that are already too low, these errors can increase, as can zero errors currently.

All other points can decrease.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTAL

 

Current seasonal max _________101 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 93 __100 __101 __ 102 _ 118 _ 95

 

Mallow _____________________  1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 16

Maxim _____________________  1 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 9 ___ 0 ___  ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 16

RodneyS ____________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 17

Roger Smith _________________ 2 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 5 ____ 18

wxdude64 ___________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 19

DonSutherland.1 ______________1 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 19

..

Consensus __________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 19

..

Rjay _______________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 0 ____ 8 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 20

Midlo Snow Maker ____________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 21

SD ________________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 21

blazess556 __________________2 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 21

hudsonvalley21 ______________  1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 23

wxallannj ____________________3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 24

Stebo ______________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 9 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 24

ksammut ____________________3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 24

BKViking ____________________0 ___ 4 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 25

Tom _______________________  1 ___ 4 ___ 1 ___ 10 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 26

DMillz25 ____________________2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 9 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 28

OHWeather _________________ 3 ___ 6 ___ 1 ___ 12 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 30

Tenman Johnson _____________2 ___ 5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 35

Damage in Tolland ____________3 ___ 8 ___ 2 ___ 13 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____ 36

 

(actual forecasts ...)

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Damage in Tolland ___________ 104 _ 104 _ 100 _____ 106 _ 102 _ 101 ____ 106 _ 118 __ 99

OHWeather _________________ 104 _ 102 __ 99 _____ 105 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 120 __ 93

DMillz25 ____________________103 _ 101 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97

Tenman Johnson ____________ 103 _ 101 __ 99 ______102 _ 104 _ 105 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 91

blazess556 _________________ 103 _ 101 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 119 __ 95

Roger Smith ________________ 103 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 101 _ 119 _ 100 (104 PDX)

Rjay _______________________102 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

Stebo ______________________102 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 94

DonSutherland.1 _____________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 ______96 __ 99 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 115 __ 96

SD ________________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ______95 _ 102 __ 96 _____ 97 _ 119 __ 96

..

Consensus __________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 117 __ 95

..

BKViking ___________________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ______98 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 95 _ 118 __ 92

Midlo Snow Maker ____________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 93

Mallow _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 _ 102 _ 103 _____100 _ 117 __ 95 (103 PDX)

Tom _______________________100 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 104 _____ 97 _ 118 __ 95

Maxim _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 101 _ 117 __ 95

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 _____100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxdude64 ___________________100 __ 98 __ 96 ______96 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 94

RodneyS ____________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

ksammut ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxallannj ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 115 __ 93

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Final Scoring for August 2016

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA_ NYC_ BOS ___ east ____ ORD_ ATL_ IAH ____ cent ____ TOTAL 

 

Rjay _____________________ 68 __ 80 __ 74____ 222 _____92 __ 84 _100 ____ 276 _____ 498 

RodneyS _________________ 60 __ 62 __ 54 ____ 176 _____ 76 __ 90 __ 98 ____ 264 _____ 440 

dmillz25 __________________58 __ 80 __ 54 ____ 192 _____ 92 __ 78 __ 66 ____ 236 _____ 428 

Damage in Tolland _________ 78 __ 74 __ 60 ____ 212 _____ 52 __ 72 __ 66 ____ 190 _____ 402

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 50 __ 68 __ 66 ____ 184 _____ 86 __ 58 __ 74 ____ 218 _____ 402

Maxim ___________________ 48 __ 64 __ 60 ____ 172 _____ 82 __ 74 __ 70 ____ 226 _____ 398 

OHweather _______________ 52 __ 70 __ 60 ____ 182 _____ 52 __ 70 __ 70 ____ 192 _____ 374 

wxdude64 ________________ 52 __ 56 __ 46 ____ 154 _____ 64 __ 72 __ 80 ____ 216 _____ 370 

BKViking __________________38 __ 54 __ 44 ____ 136 _____ 62 __ 70 __ 82 ____ 214 _____ 350 

Roger Smith ______________ 38 __ 50 __ 40 ____ 128 _____ 62 __ 74 __ 84 ____ 220 _____ 348

 

Consensus ________________ 46 __ 52 __ 40 ____ 138 _____ 62 __ 72 __ 76 ____ 210 _____ 348 


Mallow ___________________ 50 __ 52 __ 36 ____ 138 _____ 62 __ 78 __ 64 ____ 204 _____ 342 

Tenman Johnson __________ 30 __ 42 __ 32 ____ 104 _____ 84 __ 78 __ 74 ____ 236 _____ 340 

Stebo ____________________ 46 __ 44 __ 30 ____ 120 _____ 62 __ 60 __ 96 ____ 218 _____ 338 

blazess556 ________________ 40 __ 40 __ 26 ____ 106 _____ 64 __ 56 __ 92 ____ 212 _____ 318

wxallannj _________________ 42 __ 42 __ 36 ____ 120 _____ 50 __ 68 __ 74 ____ 192 _____ 312 

SD ______________________ 38 __ 50 __ 34 ____ 122 _____ 52 __ 54 __ 80 ____ 186 _____ 308 

DonSutherland.1 __________ 26 __ 44 __ 34 ____ 104 _____ 44 __ 66 __ 92 ____ 202 _____ 306  

Midlo Snow Maker _________ 22 __ 30 __ 06 ____ 058 _____ 64 __ 76 __ 62 ____ 202 _____ 260 

Tom _____________________26 __ 34 __ 20 ____ 080 _____ 42 __ 56 __ 76 ____ 174 _____ 254

 

Normal __________________ 08 __ 20 __ 14 ____ 042 _____ 32 __ 34 __100 ____ 166 _____ 208  

 

Final western and all nine scoring August 2016

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_ PHX_ SEA ____ Total ______ All Nine (= rank)


Roger Smith ____________ 34 __ 76 __ 78 ____188 _________ 536 (= 5)

Normal ________________ 74 __ 66 __ 48 ____ 188 _________ 396 (=19)

Tenman Johnson ________ 84 __ 66 __ 28 ____ 178 _________ 518 (= 9)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 68 __ 38 __ 68 ____ 174 _________ 480 (=14)

blazess556 _____________92 __ 52 __ 24 ____ 168 _________ 486 (=12)

OHweather _____________ 54 __ 36 __ 68 ____ 158 _________ 532 (= 6t)

Stebo __________________88 __ 50 __ 18 ____ 156 _________ 494 (=10t)

Maxim _________________40 __ 46 __ 68 ____ 154 _________ 552 (= 3)

dmillz25 _______________ 34 __ 40 __ 78 ____ 152 _________ 580 (= 2)

Midlo Snow Maker ________34 __ 28 __ 90 ____ 152 _________ 412 (=18)

Rjay ___________________34 __ 46 __ 68 ____ 148 _________ 646 (= 1)

SD ____________________ 54 __ 36 __ 58 ____ 148 _________ 456 (=15)

Tom ___________________58 __ 42 __ 38 ____ 138 _________ 392 (=19)

 

Consensus ______________ 40 __ 40 __ 58 ____ 138 _________ 486 (=12t)

 

wxallannj _______________ 60 __ 38 __ 38 ____ 136 _________ 448 (=16)

BKViking _______________ 54 __ 52 __ 28 ____ 134 _________ 484 (=13)

hudsonvalley21 __________36 __ 24 __ 70 ____ 130 _________ 532 (= 6t)

wxdude64 ______________32 __ 44 __ 48 ____ 124 _________ 494 (=10t)

Damage in Tolland _______40 __ 26 __ 54 ____ 120 _________ 522 (= 8)

RodneyS _______________ 00 __ 72 __ 32 ____ 104 _________ 544 (= 4)

Mallow _________________ 06 __ 08 __ 58 ____ 072 _________ 414 (=17)

 

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Probably happens about once every four or five years on average, fairly sure it happened last summer too. 

Summers are a lot sunnier and drier in the Pac NW and southern BC than a lot of people might suspect, and whenever the surface flow gets into a southeast direction we get downsloping from the Cascades to boost the heat. 

We hardly ever see dew points above 70 F in this region so while the locals call any slight show of humidity "humid" to me as a transplanted Great Lakes guy, the heat is always dry here. Today hit 93 at my place and it felt like 93. 

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