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Tim from Springfield (IL)

July 10-18 Severe Possibilities

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
643 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT  
 
* AT 642 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ST. CLOUD...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SAUK RAPIDS.  
 
THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167  
AND 180.  
 

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Who are these "spotters"? I'm not seeing anything on radar that indicates a tornado in progress attm.

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Looks like some kind of debris marker popped up between St. Joseph and Waite Park. Maybe another faint one around Saux Rapids.

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heading for the ST cloud metro again

 

TEARNS MN-  

725 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR SOUTH  
CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTY...  
 
AT 724 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER ROSCOE...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CLOUD...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.  
 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
737 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
NORTHWESTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
 
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT  
 
* AT 737 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PLEASANT LAKE...OR NEAR ST.  
CLOUD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

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IMO some surprise severe in western IL this afternoon--there had been a Severe Thunderstorm Warning earlier in southern Knox County (Galesburg and south), but it appears to have weakened.  Still appears strong on radar and headed directly toward Peoria in the next hour.

 

 

Sunday afternoon's "surprise" storms in western Illinois caused significant wind damage in the Galesburg area, including the destruction of a 300-year old bur oak tree.  All this occurred even though the storms fizzled before reaching PIA:

 

http://www.galesburg.com/news/20160711/top-regional-news-storm-causes-damage-in-galesburg

 

http://www.galesburg.com/news/20160711/wind-wipes-out-ancient-oak

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
836 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
 
MAJOR RAIN EVENT ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST  
AREA AND MAY CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WE ARE CONCERNED THIS  
MAY EVOLVE INTO A HIGH-END LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A  
STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHCENTRAL WI WITH  
THE STORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG IT. THE FRONT HAS BEEN  
WOBBLING NORTH/SOUTH FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS FOCUSING THE HEAVY RAIN  
ACROSS THE CASS-CROW WING-AITKIN PINE COUNTIES/BURNETT/SOUTHERN  
DOUGLAS TO ASHLAND COUNTY AND THE HAYWARD LAKES IN NW WI. RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN 6 HOURS ARE COMMON ACROSS THAT AREA.  
UNFORTUNELY, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS. PWATS ARE VERY HIGH WITH VALUES AT 1.8 TO 2.2 OVER THE  
AFFECTED REGION. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-45 KNOTS IS DEVELOPING AND  
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. RADAR SHOWS DEVELOPMENT ON THE  
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD  
FLOODING ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREAS AND THE EVENT COULD APPROACH  
THE JUNE 2012 HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. THE TWIN PORTS WILL NOT BE  
AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STORMS.  

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US National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota

23 mins · 

EMERGENCY SITUATION: Conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We are trying to get the word out from the Brainerd Lakes region, through east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. 

We are asking for your help in getting word out to campgrounds, resorts, anyone near rivers or streams, etc. In short, if you are in and around the Brainerd Lakes area, Aitkin County, Pine County, and much of northwestern Wisconsin, we are expecting potentially catastrophic flooding. The Mississippi River at Aitkin is expected to see a huge surge in water overnight, and is expected to reach 17.9 feet by daybreak. At 18 feet, water will inundate the Aitkin sewage plant. 

We don't ask this often, but please, share this post and communicate with anyone living in those areas. Much more rain is on the way, and we have seen 6 to 8 inches of rain in spots in these areas. This is potentially a many decade flood. 

PLEASE SHARE! And do NOT drive across those roads overnight.

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LASH FLOOD STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
940 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
 
MNC001-115-120400-  
/O.CON.KDLH.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160712T0400Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
AITKIN MN-PINE MN-  
940 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
   
..THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PINE COUNTY
 
 
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN AITKIN AND PINE COUNTIES...  
 
AT 939 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT  
REPORTED WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF PINE COUNTY. MANY STATE... COUNTY...AND LOCAL ROADS ARE  
UNDER WATER... AND SOME ROAD WASH OUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE  
STURGEON LAKE...WILLOW RIVER...DENHAM... BRUNO... ASKOV AND  
SANDSTONE AREAS.  
 
AT LEAST 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN  
PINE COUNTY...AND AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PINE COUNTY. THIS IS A  
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER  
GROUND NOW! DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY AND DO NOT  
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD!  
 

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still a lot of rain but the blowup over IA may have prevented this from becoming historic 

 

west edge making progress east now

 

1043 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N BRAINERD 46.37N 94.19W  

07/11/2016 M8.90 INCH CROW WING MN TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL. NO LONGER RAINING AT THE TIME OF  
THE REPORT.  

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Radar estimated storm total rain as of 0345z (10:45PM). Yellow-orange is 3-5", red is 5-6", pink/white is 6-8", purple, 8"+. I hope everybody is OK there. There could be some catastrophe with 8" of rain.

 

ppTSqKi.png

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Looks like it could be a close call as to whether convection fires here or just east this afternoon.  Short range models suggest east.

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Looks like it could be a close call as to whether convection fires here or just east this afternoon.  Short range models suggest east.

 

 

south and east for sure, maybe something decaying lifting northeast in the early morning?

 

main show looks to cut hard right into the LLJ Wednesday evening.

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south and east for sure, maybe something decaying lifting northeast in the early morning?

 

main show looks to cut hard right into the LLJ Wednesday evening.

 

 

I'm actually kinda optimistic about tomorrow...knock on wood.  :yikes:

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7-10" band from MN into WI showing up on the MRMS estimated 12hr totals.  Still heavy rain falling on the WI portion of that band.

 

23vzytj.jpg

 

Holy Cow, that's a lot of rain!

Would be nice to get a quarter of that down here.

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