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Hoosier

July 2016 General Discussion

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4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

We won't even hit 90 on Friday 

Models doing a poor job with summer convection as expected

the  hits keep coming for downstate rainfall with several active flash flood warnings out

 

I suspect the state could have a top 5 july rainfall if this keeps up

 

 

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

I suspect the state could have a top 5 july rainfall if this keeps up

Meanwhile we can't buy more than a tenth of an inch up here in the NE corner of the state. Driest I remember in quite some time.

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31 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Meanwhile we can't buy more than a tenth of an inch up here in the NE corner of the state. Driest I remember in quite some time.

nothing great but i think we see a few shots at some rain between thursday and sunday

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3 hours ago, Chitown Storm said:

Absolutely no rain in the previous flash flood watch area. I saw that one coming. Temps tonight might not drop below 80 in the metro with dew points 70-75. Double urban heat island in full effect. Heat index of 110-115 looks like a lock for tomorrow. All-time record is 119. 

Sort of a random thought but your post made me think how the type of extremes from summer to winter that can happen up there are pretty impressive. 

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I guess we'll get some reasoning in the upcoming afd.  Tomorrow looks like it should be pretty much free of convection...question is whether somewhat lower dews in the urban areas may make it difficult to hit criteria there.  Then for Friday, obvious concerns about convection.  If any morning stuff comes through early enough (looks like it would) and the outflow is shallow enough, then could get a quick recovery prior to new convective initiation.  

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I guess we'll get some reasoning in the upcoming afd.  Tomorrow looks like it should be pretty much free of convection...question is whether somewhat lower dews in the urban areas may make it difficult to hit criteria there.  Then for Friday, obvious concerns about convection.  If any morning stuff comes through early enough (looks like it would) and the outflow is shallow enough, then could get a quick recovery prior to new convective initiation.  




Easiest explanation is we were kinda boxed in with the early watch issuance on Monday (MKX and for some reason DVN have lower HI criteria than us, 105+ vs 110+), so instead of making the WWA map look funky, I went and issued the watch. Now I'm guessing our forecast is still lower than technical criteria for parts of the CWA, especially northeast 1/2, but since DVN and MKX were gonna issue, we opted for the warning instead of making the map look ridiculous. Cook County/Chicago also has a different criteria than the rest of the CWA (HI 105-110 for 2 days, 100-105 for 3 days), so it could very well meet the criteria there Thursday-Friday). All in all, came down to simplicity vs true EHW criteria.

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A trend that has emerged on the last several runs is to delay the weekend cooldown.  Now looking like both Saturday and Sunday could be pretty warm, outside of convection. 

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Never a good time for an ASOS to act up but ORD going wild during a potentially significant heat wave would suck.

Looks like the 00z NAM is relatively convection free in northern IL most of Friday and continues to suggest near 100F potential for Chicago with 925 mb temps approaching 30C.



I was working at WFO NYC back during the July 2010 heat wave right before I moved out here and had the issue with a malfunctioning climate site ASOS. EWR (Newark, NJ) had something like 106 degrees, which would have tied the all time record there, and we had to explain why it was more likely 103 or therabouts. It's not fun.

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Dewpoint at Gary seems to have been running on the high side for a while.  Right now they have 77, which is several degrees higher than surrounding areas.  Could have some interesting obs in the coming days.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sort of a random thought but your post made me think how the type of extremes from summer to winter that can happen up there are pretty impressive. 

The range of extremes is impressive for sure. I've only been here 2 years but I've seen both sides of it already. True Midwest weather here. 

Heat indicies already reaching 110 in parts of the metro. Over performing today. Tomorrow might be a real problem for some people with no relief tonight. 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A trend that has emerged on the last several runs is to delay the weekend cooldown.  Now looking like both Saturday and Sunday could be pretty warm, outside of convection. 

 

Monday as well, at least for the SE half of the sub-forum.

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A bit surprised that DTX didn't at least go with an Excessive Heat Warning for Detroit's heat island.

I guess because there's still uncertainty with the evolution of convection, and also because the humidity isn't going to be so bad Saturday.

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Pretty stormy day.  Had several downpours at work, and had several rounds of thunder as well.  Clouds kept temps down most of the day, but now that the sun is out it's very steamy out there.  At 85/76 here now, which is the highest of the day so far.  Picked up only 0.16" here, but had more in the QC.  Up to almost 4" for the month now.

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While probably not quite 2010 - 2012 impressive, We will finally end a month with a decent positive departure for the first time in several Summers. 

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Heat index only 95F here and it feels it... dews in the lower 70Fs..  waiting for the furnace tomorrow.

Still no July 13th, 1995...  Heat Index that day was 121F or something insane like that.

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10 minutes ago, daddylonglegs said:

Heat index only 95F here and it feels it... dews in the lower 70Fs..  waiting for the furnace tomorrow.

Still no July 13th, 1995...  Heat Index that day was 121F or something insane like that.

 

LSE peaked near 120.  High temp reached a very impressive 108, with dews mixing out a bit during the afternoon.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLSE/1995/7/13/DailyHistory.html?req_city=La+Crosse+Municipal&req_state=WI&req_statename=Wisconsin&reqdb.zip=54650&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

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Still 86/77 at 9:30 pm. Forecasted low is 81 with clear skies.  Some seriously thick overcast has developed in the last 90 minutes. Gotta wonder if that will keep temps even warmer than forecasted if it hangs around. Just gross outside.  

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