2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Rtd208]

This would be really great for areas that need the rain and is exactly what I wanted to see, not a direct hit, but something that gives us several (but much needed) inches of rain and some decent winds. Obviously there will be a trade off with some flooding problems but the rain is much needed and droughts are usually ended with big rainmakers. 

[snow1]

No wind??

[NortheastPAWx]

CMC MAJOR jump west. Actually tries to bring the center onto E LI.

[CIK62]

Passes us going NE at 35mph.    From 39N-42N in 6hrs. on Sunday early to the PM.

[NortheastPAWx]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Exactly why people need to stop living run to run. Same thing happens in winter. Anything and pretty much everything is still possible. 

 

This thing is headed twords 30c waters in the Bahamas. It could ramp up big time after the mountain interaction. 

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly why people need to stop living run to run. Same thing happens in winter. Anything and pretty much everything is still possible. 

 

This thing is headed twords 30c waters in the Bahamas. It could ramp up big time after the mountain interaction. 

It'll be harder to really ramp up again if the center stays over mountainous land for very long. How much Matthew can regain strength depends on how disrupted the core is by land.   If it stays west of Haiti, it'll have a good chance in the Bahamas to regain major hurricane strength. 

[Allsnow]

12z ukie is into fl then up the coast over the Delmarva 

[NJwx85]

Think of Irene on steroids. That's what I expect from Mathew at this point. 

Look how ridiculous the moisture feed is going to be as the Southeasterly flow comes in directly off the ocean.

The only saving grace rainfall wise is the quick movement, which is fairly common given that Mathew will be phasing with the jet stream. 

[Rtd208]

It will be interesting to see what the Euro does as well as some of the model ensembles. We going to to start getting into crunch time in the next day or so with this potential storm since we are roughly around 5 days away from the start of the event.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Think of Irene on steroids. That's what I expect from Mathew at this point. 

Look how ridiculous the moisture feed is going to be as the Southeasterly flow comes in directly off the ocean.

The only saving grace rainfall wise is the quick movement, which is fairly common given that Mathew will be phasing with the jet stream. 

Yeah it picks up speed one at our latitude which will spare the area of epic flooding. 

[NJwx85]

Surface winds actually look rather mundane right now but that could change.

[Sportybx]

I have a wedding Saturday night . Its a bit of a drive 2.5 hrs north of the city . then driving back after it around say 12am . Should I start thinking cancel ? 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Yeah it picks up speed one at our latitude which will spare the area of epic flooding. 

Once the phase completes it will be off to the races unless that mid-western trough ends up closing off an ULL. And then we'd be rolling the dice with having it close off too soon and never making it this far North.

[Rtd208]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

I have a wedding Saturday night . Its a bit of a drive 2.5 hrs north of the city . then driving back after it around say 12am . Should I start thinking cancel ? 

I would just wait until Saturday to see what the final track is 

[NJwx85]

12z GFDL makes landfall on the SC coast as a CAT 4.

[East of the Parkway]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I would just wait until Saturday to see what the final track is 

unless you dont want to go... lol

[NJwx85]

12Z GFS output for a few locations. No need to really get this specific this early on but just a taste.

JFK 4.04"

LGA 4.35"

HPN 4.97"

MMU 4.93"

ISP 2.21"

BDR 4.32"

[Sportybx]

1 minute ago, pstar3182 said:

unless you dont want to go... lol

Well.... Hahaha ... No comment 

[MJO812]

Navgem way inland into upstate NY lol

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

Well.... Hahaha ... No comment 

It's never wise to base your plans around a TC forecast beyond three or four days. 

If I had plans to go to the Bahamas, I would probably be canceling them at this point, but beyond that, no.

[NJwx85]

Over/Under on the amount of people among the general public that will think we're missing the storm because the NHC track will likely show the center remaining offshore up this way?

[SnoSki14]

Noticed the AO tanking around this time as well and the NAO just had a significant negative to positive shift. 

The entire east coast could be affected and there's still the question of how much interaction occurs with the coming trough and its strength/tilt.

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Over/Under on the amount of people among the general public that will think we're missing the storm because the NHC track will likely show the center remaining offshore up this way?

I also think the Hermine factor will come into play, still fresh in some peoples minds.

[larrye]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Over/Under on the amount of people among the general public that will think we're missing the storm because the NHC track will likely show the center remaining offshore up this way?

I don't think so. The local mets/media will take any opportunity to sensationalize so I'm sure they will make people aware of the likely effects from the trough pulling in the precip or  from being on the left side of the storm.

 

 

[NJwx85]

Huge rain shield with Mathew on the HWRF. With the center still South of Wilmington, NC on Friday afternoon, steady rain is already up to Ocean City, MD and as far NW as Richmond, VA.

[NJwx85]

Rain up to NYC by 06z Saturday with the center of Mathew just West of OBX on the HWRF.

Most of the South side of the system by this point is void of precipitation, much like we saw with Irene.

[NJwx85]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

If this thing can bomb out in the Bahamas and get its pressure down into the 920s/30s it's going to take a long time to fill. As it gets further north the wind field will expand ala sandy. Remember sandy had gale fource winds all the way out to the Great Lakes before it made landfall. I think if we see some baroclinic forcing as this begins extra tropical transition we have a sandy type storm (pressure in the 940s at our latitude) just 100-200 miles off shore. We get essential what DC did with sandy. A ton of rain and wind gusts to 50-60. Catostropic no, but still a high impact event