NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z HWRF has a major hurricane near 75W/17N in four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 WAY east of 00z run. very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said: WAY east of 00z run. very interesting. Drifts around East of the Bahamas for a few days before turning NNE, likely harmlessly heading OTS after that. Bad trends today in the modeling for US landfall impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Crawling along and pounding the SE Bahamas days 6-10 as the steering flow becomes very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Crawling along and pounding the Bahamas days 6-9 as the steering flow becomes very weak. By day ten, the trough that could possibly bring Mathew towards our area is long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Drifts around East of the Bahamas for a few days before turning NNE, likely harmlessly heading OTS after that. Bad trends today in the modeling for US landfall impact. What are you expecting a week out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: What are you expecting a week out? I'm not expecting anything. I'm making an observation. I've seen this movie too many times to not know how this usually ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Looks like Joaquin from last year which meandered, then found a weakness out and accelerated NE out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm not expecting anything. I'm making an observation. I've seen this movie too many times to not know how this usually ends. How is it going to end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What are you expecting a week out? ORHwxman had a great reply in the NE thread in regards to people living and dying by each OP model run, especially with a TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 In regards to the Euro, it's movement is so slow that The South East ridge builds in and blocks it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How is it going to end up? take a look at a climo map for October storms and you'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 i think this is just a typical stupid day 7+ euro solution. if the ens mean is threatening i would discount the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like a Maryland landfall for the US would be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: take a look at a climo map for October storms and you'll see.... I guess we should stop tracking this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The EPS mean is nothing like the OP. Just North of Cuba on Wednesday night, headed towards the Southern Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 EPS mean ends up close to Florida day ten. Some members in the Gulf, some close to FL and some in the Bahamas. Certainly nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: take a look at a climo map for October storms and you'll see.... that's not a forecast or analysis. we can all do this...and we will all be right most of the time. without looking at a single computer model..the prediction that a hurricane will miss our area will prove right far more times than not. when more than one model exhibits potential, you pay attention to it. sandy happened. it was very unlikely, and remains very unlikely to happen again, but it doesn't mean we should be flippant about such potential. i can make a few probably right predictions too. most snowstorms will fail rather than succeed. most severe storms will be less severe east of new york city. it's unlikely to hit 0 degrees in NYC or the coast this season. all of these statements are true, yet they have all happened over the last decade. i don't think anyone here is under the illusion that this is likely, just that it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 The UKMET is a carbon copy of the slower Euro at least through 144 hrs sitting over Eastern Cuba. The EPS mean so far looks like a western outlier compared to the OP Euro, UKMET, and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: The UKMET is a carbon copy of the slower Euro at least through 144 hrs sitting over Eastern Cuba. The EPS mean so far looks like a western outlier compared to the OP Euro, UKMET, and GFS. Take the middle and go with the Gefs Euro control hammers south Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 GFS scrapes Jamaica, E Cuba landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Landfall in Cuba is almost exact same place Sandy made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 don't fall in love with any model runs yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The GFS ends up scraping the coast up here. No phase, nothing to hook it back west. The block is there but it's not enough to force it West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The surface winds are a lot more impressive than Hermine. The windfield is probably twice as large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Gefs is very consistent witn an east coast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is very consistent witn an east coast track If the latest cut-off track adjustment is any indication then we'll likely see more westward shifts with Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12Z EURO has Cat.2/3 well east of Florida and 1100 miles due south of us on day 10, while the EPS is puny with a 'nothing system' drifting into GOM by day 10 and dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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