Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Not sure if this is thread-worthy yet, but interesting Day 4-8 SPC outlook this morning hinting at a return to an active severe pattern in parts of the subforum starting next week and possibly into at least the first part of Memorial Day weekend: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016 VALID 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... AN INCREASINGLY SEVERE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGHING WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWARD-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A PARTICULARLY MOISTURE-RICH/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE ABSENCE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS ARE PLAUSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK /DAY 7 THURSDAY/. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT GRAPHICAL RISK ADJUSTMENTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED AS MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE RESOLVED. DAY 4/MONDAY...WHILE RESIDUAL DAY 3 CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS MN/IA. A SOMEWHAT MORE CERTAIN SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NORTH/WEST TX NEAR THE DRYLINE. DAY 5 TUESDAY...INCREASING/NORTHWARD RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOWER-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RISKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY. DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...AS THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IL/MI AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS... SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE VICINITY WHERE THE SEVERE RISK MAY BE MORE ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND RELATED MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A GRAPHICALLY DEPICTED SEVERE RISK. DAY 7/THURSDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL DETAILS IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO VALLEY/MIDWEST. ..GUYER.. 05/20/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Nice, Skilling mentioned last night the possibility of dews near 70 early next week along with the potential for some heavy rain producers Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 definitely the best airmass of 2016 coming for those of use further NE naso excited about severe but general thunder prospects go way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 definitely the best airmass of 2016 coming for those of use further NE naso excited about severe but general thunder prospects go way up Agreed, nothing in the progs screams anything major but wouldn't be surprised to see a few slight risk type days mixed in. At this point, either Wednesday or Thursday look to be potential days and then possibly Friday or Saturday. Obviously lots of timing differences to iron out, but nice to finally have storm chances on the horizon and if the mesoscale details work out possibly even some severe prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 definitely the best airmass of 2016 coming for those of use further NE naso excited about severe but general thunder prospects go way up I agree. the May 7-13 event it was still a little too cool and stable east and Especially north of NE and MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 The 27th on the 12Z GFS would be a good event for Central IL, the GFS has definitely caught on to an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 D3 includes some of Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri in the SLGT risk, along with a big MRGL risk that covers most of Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. SPC has hatched over the plains. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/CORN BELT/MIDWEST...MCS/RESIDUAL CONVECTION-RELATED DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLYCERTAIN...BUT WITH AID OF WARM ADVECTION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANMCS MAY BE ONGOING SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS/NEB INTOIA/MO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THESE STORMS COULDLINGER/FORWARD PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ADDITIONALPORTIONS OF IA/MO/WESTERN IL WITHIN A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF THISREGION /IA-MO-IL/ LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.OTHERWISE...WHILE SPATIAL/TIMING-RELATED VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONGSTAVAILABLE GUIDANCE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EMERGEFROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS NEB AND THE MIDDLE MOVALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLEBOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NEB/NORTHERN KS NEAR/NORTH OF A FRONT ANDNORTH/NORTHEAST OF A CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW...WITH AID OFLOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS. ASTRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OFVERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY GROWINGUPSCALE/POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY PROGRESSEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 If today's 12Z GFS isn't just an off run, Thursday night could be quite significant in Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Yes please, minus the VBV at the ~600 mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Thursday night is honestly looking like the good night for Severe in the subforum unless the models change. Wednesday is more marginal but something could materialize assuming that the rain doesn't screw the chances, and Friday could have something for areas east of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 0Z GFS for Thursday night gets the higher instability much further east, looking good for wind and hail, especially in Illinois and Northwest Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 The 12Z NAM has 5000 CAPE in lower MI Thursday night Yeah, not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 The 12Z NAM has 5000 CAPE in lower MI Thursday night Yeah, not gonna happen. Interestingly it has dewpoints in the low 70s, which is very similar to the GFS...maybe a tick higher. The bigger difference is temps as the NAM is considerably warmer than the GFS. If those dewpoints come to fruition then it's possible that CAPE could be near NAM levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Interestingly it has dewpoints in the low 70s, which is very similar to the GFS...maybe a tick higher. The bigger difference is temps as the NAM is considerably warmer than the GFS. If those dewpoints come to fruition then it's possible that CAPE could be near NAM levels. Yes especially considering that it is driven predominantly by the cooler temperatures aloft. Although it is more like 4000 j/kg for NAM and 3000 for the GFS/Euro, they aren't that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 I have a question for the actual mets on here so I don't jump to a conclusion. The SPC didn't mention the threat for our subforum on their Day 4-8 outlook this morning, so what do you think about probabilities if any on the Day 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 I have a question for the actual mets on here so I don't jump to a conclusion. The SPC didn't mention the threat for our subforum on their Day 4-8 outlook this morning, so what do you think about probabilities if any on the Day 3? They will probably do a 5% at this junction though I'd argue they are focusing too much on the plains and ignoring this region so a 15% on the day 3 wouldn't shock me at all once they focus on our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 They will probably do a 5% at this junction though I'd argue they are focusing too much on the plains and ignoring this region so a 15% on the day 3 wouldn't shock me at all once they focus on our region. I was thinking it was because we are in the open warm sector and I didn't see any sources of lift with the exception of the warm front, wherever that sets up. Along with that, the actual low is all the way invof the lee Rockies in the E CO high plains. I am trying to reference that storms could have coverage issues lacking a sufficient source of initiation, but that also raises the question: Would instability alone be enough to initiate storms? I could be wildly wrong here but could this have something to do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 0Z NAM did get the high 4000 CAPE spread more evenly, hoping if the GFS agrees the SPC catches on to this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 0Z NAM did get the high 4000 CAPE spread more evenly, hoping if the GFS agrees the SPC catches on to this thing. For the time being, its like what LinnCounty said above. SPC hasn't caught on to it yet because the models show we will be capped and there will be a stronger mid level ridge. The GFS was the first to show it and the Euro started following the same lines. Of course, this could change, but all of that would mean the largest convective risk will be west of us (particularly those of us in Michigan, I wouldn't count out parts of Illinois but the boat is kind of similar there, albeit a bit higher than MI). Sure we'll have 3k j/kg+ CAPE on Thursday evening, but we'll have weak lifting mechanisms at best. Unless something can come in and break the cap to provide wider coverage, convection will be rather limited. Saturday seems to show some favorable deep layer shear as well as decent instability. A low level jet will be set up over Lower Michigan (basis of storms on Friday) and the Euro is showing a cold front dropping out of the Upper Plains into the region on Monday. That would enhance the risk in the Saturday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 continues to look lame for our subforum from a severe perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 definitely the best airmass of 2016 coming for those of use further NE naso excited about severe but general thunder prospects go way up You're gonna nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Nice convection tomorrow on 4km NAM Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Nice day today, it is rather humid, but it's the warmest we've been so far this season, or it feels that way at least. Partly cloudy with elevated cumulus and a couloir of towers going up to my SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 NWS Marquette @NWSMarquette 2m2 minutes ago NWS personnel are en route to two possible tornado touchdown locations in Marquette County west of Republic & SE of the Greenwood Reservoir. Just looking back at the radar around the time the storm passed through those areas, I think they might find some damage. There was a solid couplet for a while there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 For those of you in the SEMI camp, 6/20/1997 is showing up as a strong analog (scored 13.5 out of 15) for Thursday on CIPS. Some good reports from that day here: Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Some further looking into at that analog FWIW. Nice bow crossing into the state about 7 pm EDT Still going strong at 10 pm Then an hour later at 11 pm, it's still a respectable MCS but almost completely misses SEMI. A good analog to have on our side, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 NWS Marquette @NWSMarquette 17s18 seconds ago Tornado confirmed: Touched down near Marquette/Iron/Baraga County border, traveled ENE across River Rd, lifted west of M-95 near Republic. NWS Marquette @NWSMarquette 12s12 seconds ago ...2nd tornado traveled from CR 476 just south of the Greenwood Reservoir, traveled east, then lifted around CR 581 in Marquette County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 NWS Marquette @NWSMarquette 17s18 seconds ago Tornado confirmed: Touched down near Marquette/Iron/Baraga County border, traveled ENE across River Rd, lifted west of M-95 near Republic. NWS Marquette @NWSMarquette 12s12 seconds ago ...2nd tornado traveled from CR 476 just south of the Greenwood Reservoir, traveled east, then lifted around CR 581 in Marquette County. Unreal that the frickin UP gets tornadoes before we do. Haha what a boring year in weather it's been other than the April snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Unreal that the frickin UP gets tornadoes before we do. Haha what a boring year in weather it's been other than the April snowstorm There have been 5 tornadoes in Ohio If I remember correctly. They were all from a mini supercell day in Darke and Preble Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Today's marginal got expanded east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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