jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 00Z NAM really likes SC KS/W OK tomorrow afternoon/evening... By 21Z across SC KS, you see an explosive thermodynamic environment characterized by MLCAPE of 3500-5000J/KG, along with impressive low-level CAPE, with 0-3KM CAPE of 75-140J/KG... With impressive low-level moisture in place w/ Tds in the upr 60s/low 70s... As early as 21Z on the NAM we see 0-1KM shear of 20kt (with 30-40kt LLJ at H85) contributing to 200-250m2/s2 SRH, with effective-shear approaching 40kts... By 00z we see a much more widespread LLJ with SSELY flow at 850mb of 30-50kts, and SELY flow at 925mb of 30-40kts, contributing to 0-1KM Shear of 20-30kt, and SRH of 200-250m2/s2... In addition Effective-Shear increases to nearly 50kts by 00z. All the same volatile thermodynamics will be in place as discussed above... In other words, according to the NAM, weak shear will not be as much of a problem tomorrow as it was today early on. With all this in mind, we will likely see a parameter space favorable for tornadoes and very large hail late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Furthermore, it appears there will be some sort of an OFB in place across SC/SW KS tomorrow afternoon/evening, which could possibly be a focus point for storms, and enhanced low-level shear/SRH-- as the NAM and 4K NAM indicates, will have to see what other 00Z CAMS do with it. But as we saw today in KS, OFBs do not always mean something convectively. FWIW, 4K NAM indicates that storms will remain pretty widely scattered, and supercellular... EDIT: AS for now, looks like theres two confirmed tornadoes in progress (or were in progress) one near Turkey, TX, and one in Harper Co. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 So Wednesday looks quite interesting. Right on my back porch too. Most models are putting values of 7000 cape, 70 point dews, and EHI values of 10 in the 0-3km heights. 300-350 SRH in 0-3km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Pretty strong couplet on this. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL MOTLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... SOUTH CENTRAL HALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... * UNTIL 1015 PM CDT * AT 943 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF NORTHFIELD...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TURKEY...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Saw my first tornadoes today on the Woodward, OK tornadic supercell with Jon (i.e. nwburbschaser on here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 First day in the Plains, and you get a tornado, now thats pretty awesome... With hopefully more to come... How many more days are you out here Andy? ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOTLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HALL COUNTIES... AT 956 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TURKEY...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 I'm assuming this is the one SE of Turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 I'm assuming this is the one SE of Turkey. Still in progress too it appears... You can see it periodically with lightning flashes on Kelley Williamson's feed. Extremely odd that it has been moving due NW for almost 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Still a giant supercell in mexico. Is that even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Still a giant supercell in mexico. Is that even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 First day in the Plains, and you get a tornado, now thats pretty awesome... With hopefully more to come... How many more days are you out here Andy? Until June 2nd. Having already seen my first tornadoes, I can settle into this more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Until June 2nd. Having already seen my first tornadoes, I can settle into this more. Thursday looks like a pretty solid day. Not only up here, but also in the plains. Anyways best of luck and hope you get to see more! EDIT: Noticing a bit of VBV over S KS and N OK on Thursday, so if that comes into fruition, that could put a damper on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Until June 2nd. Having already seen my first tornadoes, I can settle into this more. Already got one--or more if you want to count the multiple touchdowns-- tornado, so the rest is cheese... Probably have a shot at about 4 more good days. Wednesday is a crap shoot as to if CI will occur, but i'll still throw it in that pile. Good luck! Also looks like that Turkey, TX tornado was quite large... Heres a picture I found on Twitter, from Paul Knightley, whoever that is... If I didn't know any better i'd say this was Greensburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Already got one--or more if you want to count the multiple touchdowns-- tornado, so the rest is cheese... Probably have a shot at about 4 more good days. Wednesday is a crap shoot as to if CI will occur, but i'll still throw it in that pile. Good luck! Also looks like that Turkey, TX tornado was quite large... Heres a picture I found on Twitter, from Paul Knightley, whoever that is... If I didn't know any better i'd say this was Greensburg. Greensburg? Nah, but here is another shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Saw my first tornadoes today on the Woodward, OK tornadic supercell with Jon (i.e. nwburbschaser on here). Congrats! Saw my first tornado my first time on the Plains on April 14, 2012 and today was my first tornado since then. We were on the same storm as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Saw my first tornadoes today on the Woodward, OK tornadic supercell with Jon (i.e. nwburbschaser on here).Congrats on the first tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Tornado report earlier (0244z) near Northfield TX. This is about 25 mi west of Childress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Congrats! Saw my first tornado my first time on the Plains on April 14, 2012 and today was my first tornado since then. We were on the same storm as you. Congrats on the first tor. Appreciate it guys. Where were you Ricky? I'm assuming somewhere on 34? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Congrats to Andy on his first tor. All in all, that was about as good of a chase day as I could ask for. It isn't that often that you get to watch a storm for that long without having to reposition. I was rather optimistic on this time period coming in from the view of it having potential if you can be in the right spot at the right time so it feels good to have some validation. We've now had tornado days on the Plains for the past 3 days so I'm interested to see what happens going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Congrats Andy, looks like you picked a pretty good week to go to the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Appreciate it guys. Where were you Ricky? I'm assuming somewhere on 34?We were between Woodward and Mooreland on 412, closer to Woodward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 We were between Woodward and Mooreland on 412, closer to Woodward. Ah, further E. Yeah we (and Jon ahead us) ended up punching the core (was only heavy rain) and there was strong rotation aloft basically right on top of us when we emerged on the other side. Fortunately I knew it was not tornadic at the time so it wasn't exactly a bear's cage situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Appreciate it guys. Where were you Ricky? I'm assuming somewhere on 34? Gratz Andy. Hope you get more in the following the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Ah, further E. Yeah we (and Jon ahead us) ended up punching the core (was only heavy rain) and there was strong rotation aloft basically right on top of us when we emerged on the other side. Fortunately I knew it was not tornadic at the time so it wasn't exactly a bear's cage situation.We actually did get some brief hail maybe up to nickel size in Mooreland. Then we repositioned on 412 albeit farther away but still a very nice view and my chasing partners (Danny Neal and coworker from LOT) got some great structure photos/vid/timelapses on their better equipment. Here's a shot from my cellphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Congrats to Andy and Ricky on today's tors. You guys look to be in for several more days of favorable chasing as the week goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Late night thunderstorms are developing in Kansas in response to increased 850mb temp advection/moisture advection. There's some pretty heavy rain and hail in some of these. Some radar estimates of rainfall are up to 2" per hour. This should create an outflow boundary that stabilizes mid-Kansas and possibly down to northern Oklahoma. Wherever that boundary ends up could determine tornado chances for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Late night thunderstorms are developing in Kansas in response to increased 850mb temp advection/moisture advection. There's some pretty heavy rain and hail in some of these. This should create an outflow boundary that stabilizes mid-Kansas and possibly down to northern Oklahoma. Wherever that boundary ends up could determine tornado chances for tomorrow. When the situation/scenario becomes more clear/ likely by 1630Z/ I would not be surprised to see a 10% TOR prob along/near that OFB in S KS/N OK. On another note, Broyles issued the 06Z D2 outlook, which I believe means he'll issue the D3 (which will be for thursday), so we'll see how much optimism he can expel about Thursday. Models are wafering between a big time threat and a threat lessened by morning/early afternoon downstream convection... Timing has also been inconsistent, so not sure how optimistic even Broyles will be. Everyday so far has produced about what was expected-- and even more in the case of Sunday. ~20ish tornadoes on Sunday-- a few of which were long-lived and probably strong, and 6+ish today-- most of which were after dark, of which at least one was potentially strong. This is purely subjective, but surely the highest-potential day will pan out, just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Congrats to Andy and Ricky on today's tors. You guys look to be in for several more days of favorable chasing as the week goes on. Thanks! Hope to score again tomorrow, because I'm working the Wednesday evening shift at LOT along with my coworker that's on this trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Glad to see many of you scored today! I was there for the WWR stuff as well. The terrain was a bit frustrating -- I don't think more than 10% of people watching that tor could see all the way to the ground -- but more than enough to be happy with relative to today's setup. Hopefully better to come tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Fairly expansive SLGT risk, and somewhat large ENH risk for S KS/W OK/ N and C TX. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0231 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016VALID 261200Z - 271200Z...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN ANDCNTRL PLAINS......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREATPLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISKAREA......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREATPLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWRN GREAT LAKES OUTSIDE OF THESLIGHT RISK AREA......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEWTORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSSPARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THELOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITHHAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TOUPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION....SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERSREGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACEACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TODEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINEEXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX. SFCDEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S FWITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALEASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AIDETHUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATETHURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THEWARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A MOISTAND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH AN UPPER-LEVELTROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE DRYLINE FROM THEWEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT00Z/FRI ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF2000 TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FORSUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES INDIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSOPRODUCE TORNADOES AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BEPOSSIBLE AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE....CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERSREGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACEACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MID MOVALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGHPLAINS AS A FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN KS ENEWD INTO IAAND SRN WI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARYWITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGIONDURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THEHIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CNTRLHIGH PLAINS.CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAYAFTERNOON...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTHE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ENEWD INTO THEUPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONGINSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGSFROM SALINA KS ENEWD TO DES MOINES IA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KMSHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULDBE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEARINCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITHTHE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THEMORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSMAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ERN IA AND WI...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGEOVER THE NCNTRL STATES MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING SEVERETHREAT COVERAGE...BROYLES.. 05/24/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Pretty conservative, but it is day 3. Would anticipate a more strongly worded outlook with mentions of upgrade for the day 2 unless models begin down trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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