bjc3395 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Tomorrow is looking pretty impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Tomorrow is looking pretty impressive... Certainly is, across NW/W OK (possibly E TX PH depending on DL location) and into S KS. 00Z NAM is impressive across this area as soon as 18Z, and is great past 21Z and into 00Z. Here is a sounding in NW OK tomorrow at 21Z. LCLs are incredibly low, BL-moisture quality is top-tier, low-level CAPE is top-tier, low-level directional shear is quite impressive, and deep-layer shear is sufficient and oriented favorably to the boundary. I like it. Seems like a recipe for ground scrapers. Probably HP-mode too. Tuesday looks similar to Monday, just a bit less intense with its parameters for Monday, largely because of lesser wind-fields. Still could be interesting on Tuesday in KS. Wednesday looks conditionally significant along much of the Dryline, but especially in Kansas. Conditional on CI actually occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Scott City, KS tornadic supercell from I-70 near Burlington, CO. This thing had a total nuke of an updraft, a nice intro to the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Pretty impressive amount of convection in the Dakota's right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Pretty large MCS taking shape across SW OK/ SE TX PH. Possibly another one in the Northeastern TX PH/NW OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 about 100mi west of Sioux Falls there is something that looks like a bow echo with possible wind-driven 1.5" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Looking at today's 12z WRF-ARW and WRF-NMMB it seems that tomorrow could be very active at the dryline. Still waiting for the 00z runs of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 WRF-ARW actually did pretty great today. Basically nailed the intense supercell near Big Spring, TX, as well as the nice supercell in the N TX PH, and the beast supercell in SW KS. Was not super crazy dead on like these hi-res cams can be, but it got the general performance of today correct. Not doing good at all with current MCSs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 One thing I've learned looking at Plains setups is that the day before the main trough ejection (i.e. Wednesday on the GFS) can often result in much bigger things than the actual one itself. Rather subtle forcing with a modest cap (somewhat like today) with pretty reasonable mid level flow and strong veering with height in the lowest 3 km is a recipe for something big potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 One thing I've learned looking at Plains setups is that the day before the main trough ejection (i.e. Wednesday on the GFS) can often result in much bigger things than the actual one itself. Rather subtle forcing with a modest cap (somewhat like today) with pretty reasonable mid level flow and strong veering with height in the lowest 3 km is a recipe for something big potentially. Seems like the type of days you mentioned-- and what Wednesday will be, usually resulted in about one insane supercell. Nothing more usually, it seems, but just one intense cyclic supercell. That pseudo triple-point in KS on Wednesday looks like the perfect spot. And my oh my does it look potent. Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the Bennington tornado occur in a similar setup/situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 NSSL-WRF has some pretty slow moving supercells tomorrow. Like Jo mentioned, we could see some pretty impressive content from chasers tomorrow. Hopefully everything stay out in the fields. Kind of a misleading image here since it is catching some of the UH streaks from tonight's storms. The 1 hr frames later on are extremely impressive though, nonetheless. Definitely going to be driving south to either Garden City or DDC late tomorrow morning, probably will get lunch, then re-evaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 tweet by Alex Lamers identifying the opposite circulations (anticyclonic tornado?) earlier near Big Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 00Z GFS looks big for Thursday... Wind fields are quite tremendous all around. Very impressive and widespread LLJ (35-50kt) as early as 21Z with a 994mb sfc-low over SW KS at 00Z, with the 50-60kt SWLY mid-level jet punching into the warm sector by 00Z. SPC went for a fairly large 30% area on D4 (Thursday) from C KS southward through W/C OK and into NC TX. Including OKC/ICT/I-35 corridor. Classic look to the SFC low location, as well as the shortwave timing. VBV sig does show up above 500mb, which might/probably will be the fly in the ointment for this day, but we'll see. VBV is not as much of a problem south in OK as it is north in KS on this run. ECMWF is much less enthusiastic and is slower with the ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Well now, that's quite a change in the SPC's D1 Outlook: ...KS TO ERN NEB/WRN IA AND MN...AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS BEEN PRODUCED BY THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIONACROSS OK/N TX...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORMING FARTHER NACROSS ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL WAVE THAT MAY HAVE BEENENHANCED BY CONVECTION YESTERDAY. STRONG AIR MASS RECOVERY APPEARSUNLIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA GIVEN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THEONGOING CONVECTION...PLUS THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE COLDPOOL ACROSS OK. THUS...A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS MOSTAPPROPRIATE IN THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Well now, that's quite a change in the SPC's D1 Outlook: ...KS TO ERN NEB/WRN IA AND MN... AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS BEEN PRODUCED BY THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS OK/N TX...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORMING FARTHER N ACROSS ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL WAVE THAT MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTION YESTERDAY. STRONG AIR MASS RECOVERY APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA GIVEN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...PLUS THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE COLD POOL ACROSS OK. THUS...A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE IN THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE. I know you guys think I'm a debbie downer, but this system has had a multitude of issues. This just adds to that. If we have more limited airmass recovery today and that damps convection that could make things a bit better tomorrow. SRH is still pretty poor over most of the warm sector tomorrow in OK. In KS its a bit better and in the far eastern TX panhandle there's a bit better helicity values showing up. Outflow boundaries will be critical... I would like to add that the NAM paints a better SRH picture for tomorrow over much of OK but some of it is well east of the primary forcing. The 4k NAM is pretty blah in this regard. Outflow boundary interaction will almost be a requirement over a good portion of the warm sector tomorrow, otherwise we'll be staring at huge hail and more minimal tornadoes. By 10pm SRH picks up so perhaps between 7 and 10pm there will be a bit more substantial tor threat. The 4KM paints nice supercells just S of I40 in western OK. There's also some enhanced SRH in the OKC metro late evening 9-11pm so any storms in the area would pose a concern if that pans out. There will be tors tomorrow but it'll come down to trying to find a boundary, hoping the storms go up and can interact with the boundary. Otherwise it'll be very hit or miss on finding a cell that produces, unless something significant changes with wind velocities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 I know you guys think I'm a debbie downer, but this system has had a multitude of issues. This just adds to that. If we have more limited airmass recovery today and that damps convection that could make things a bit better tomorrow. You sound like you're speaking from basically only an OK point of view, which is fine. Assuming tomorrow doesn't get screwed by overnight/morning convection, I'm planning on targeting the triple point in S KS. As for today, it does look like air mass recovery is occurring in behind that cold pool. Thinking of setting up somewhere S of DDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 You sound like you're speaking from basically only an OK point of view, which is fine. Assuming tomorrow doesn't get screwed by overnight/morning convection, I'm planning on targeting the triple point in S KS. As for today, it does look like air mass recovery is occurring in behind that cold pool. Thinking of setting up somewhere S of DDC.I am speaking for Oklahoma. I am having a lot of accessibility issues this morning and retyping my post for the third time had me in a hurry :/Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Looks like solid moisture return into western OK and S KS as well as pretty easy temperature recovery. Cold pool is quickly deteriorating due to insolation and S/SE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0132 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST TXCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 231832Z - 232030ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERTHE MOUNTAINS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTALONG THE DRYLINE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUTA COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BEPOSSIBLE AS WELL.DISCUSSION...INITIAL HIGH-BASED CB DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED OVERJEFF DAVIS COUNTY WITH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ALSO EVIDENTINTO PECOS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CORRIDOR FOR STORM INITIATIONTHROUGH 20Z. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILLDEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO MINIMAL DRYLINE CU AT THISTIME. NEVERTHELESS...WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENINGCONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD FOSTER AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMSNORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF3000-4000 J/KG AMID VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEWSUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD.MODEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW MAY INITIALLY TEMPER THE TORNADO RISK...BUTGIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVELWINDS TOWARDS EVENING...AN INCREASE IN TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL ISANTICIPATED...GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Crazy video from Big Spring, TX (aftermath right after tornado hits guys house) at the below link:http://www.ktxs.com/news/Big-Spring-man-dog-survive-tornado/39676500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 And here's a video of one of the tornadoes actually touching down in Big Springhttp://www.ktxs.com/news/video-tornado-touches-down-in-big-spring/39674112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Looks like solid moisture return into western OK and S KS as well as pretty easy temperature recovery. Cold pool is quickly deteriorating due to insolation and S/SE flow. Warming nicely along the OK/TX border. DPs also looking good out west with lots of upper 60s being reported. I don't know why the site is so unusable today, I suspect it's my connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 23, 2016 Author Share Posted May 23, 2016 Tornado Watch forthcoming for much of West Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Warming nicely along the OK/TX border. DPs also looking good out west with lots of upper 60s being reported. I don't know why the site is so unusable today, I suspect it's my connection With upper 70s/low 80s temps. Here is the OK Mesonet DP map, 70 becoming pretty prevalent... Looks like two plays for today. The Triple-point farther north in KS, or the OFB in N TX. Looks like the storms near ICT have put off a new OFB... Likely will help reinforce the triple point, and also augment the low-level wind profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 New MD for W OK/KS, TOR watch just got issued for W TX with 60/30 probs. THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFWEST TEXAS* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL1000 PM CDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLEWIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAILEVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELYSCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0218 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS...EAST TX/OK PANHANDLES...WEST OKCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 231918Z - 232115ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THEDRYLINE AND NEAR A LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A MODERATE TOSTRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OFSIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARIESSHOULD ALSO FOSTER A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB SURFACE NEAR THEOK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE ARCINGSOUTH ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. AN OUTFLOWBOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTOSOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH THE NORTH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SURGINGWEST. INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THESE BOUNDARIESAND LINGERING MLCIN SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AIRMASS BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW ACROSS WEST OK AND THE EAST TXPANHANDLE IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY BETWEEN2500-3500 J/KG GIVEN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAILAS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MODEST ATPRESENT...BACKED SURFACE WINDS /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTFLOWBOUNDARY/ AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD FAVOR A COUPLE TORNADICSUPERCELLS AS WELL...GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 On a non-supercell note: a tornado was reported near Juniata, Nebraska, with light rain showers seen by UEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 On a non-supercell note: a tornado was reported near Juniata, Nebraska, with light rain showers seen by UEX. Saw that, the storms weren't even severe warned. Reports came from numerous calls to 911. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 On another note, came across this gorgeous picture of an updraft on Twitter taken yesterday in Nebraska: Credit: @twright2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Cell north of Memphis, TX really exploded fast, went from nothing to golf-ball sized hail in 30 minutes. No surprise given SBCAPE of 5000J/KG per 20Z RAP. Looks like quite a number of chasers/teams are going to go ahead and bite on it, and looking at current vis-sat, that might not be a bad move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Cell north of Memphis, TX really exploded fast, went from nothing to golf-ball sized hail in 30 minutes. No surprise given SBCAPE of 5000J/KG per 20Z RAP. Looks like quite a number of chasers/teams are going to go ahead and bite on it, and looking at current vis-sat, that might not be a bad move. Yup, definitely getting "that look." Broad rotation and a hook forming. The southernmost severe warned storm in TX looks like it can pop anytime now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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