jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... WEST CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 715 PM MDT/815 PM CDT/ * AT 639 PM MDT/739 PM CDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALLACE...OR 17 MILES EAST OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Roger Hill has a beautiful view right now on his stream. http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 This really is a beastly cell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 This really is a beastly cell! The southend is just a spinning top. It won't stop rotating. Pretty massive mesocyclone on radar and chaser streams as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Beauty from Roger Hill's stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 When you guys post images make sure you credit them so those who took them receive proper credit. on another note, that storm is really spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Looking at the model data again tonight and storm relative felicities are pretty bad all week long for the most part. If wind fields don't start showing some improvement we'll wind up with some big hailers and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Looking at the model data again tonight and storm relative felicities are pretty bad all week long for the most part. If wind fields don't start showing some improvement we'll wind up with some big hailers and that's about it. Disagree on that... 18Z GFS still showed pretty good--or sufficient helicities every day from monday to thursday. Especially in KS most of the days. Still could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Man I dozed off for about 90 minutes and it doesn't seem like that cell north of Leoti has moved much in that 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Pulled into Leoti around 1130a then drove about 15 miles the rest of the day. Always fun. Great storm for all the fail talk from many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 That storm today has me bummed. I just got into Kearney, NE and looks like I missed a good one in Kansas. If only I could have started my vacation about 6 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Disagree on that... 18Z GFS still showed pretty good--or sufficient helicities every day from monday to thursday. Especially in KS most of the days. Still could be better. Monday afternoon is respectable in KS. Tuesday? The 00Z weds looks pretty blah with only a small area > 200m2s2 and Thursday at 00Z paints a narrow axis of >200m2s2 I hope you guys get some good chase days but I'm not super impressed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 This kind of setup is not all about large scale helicity though. Will come down a lot to boundary interactions mostly imo. If I'm not mistaken tonights supercell was near the wf. I think we could see a few significant tors IF we see some ofb interaction. I do think the incredible thermodynamics though can help make up for lack of better shear. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 This kind of setup is not all about large scale helicity though. Will come down a lot to boundary interactions mostly imo. If I'm not mistaken tonights supercell was near the wf. I think we could see a few significant tors IF we see some ofb interaction. I do think the incredible thermodynamics though can help make up for lack of better shear. We shall see Definitely agree. Boundary interactions will make a few great storms. Just not seeing anything screaming outbreak or anything. So you better pick a boundary and hope a storm that you get a storm on that boundary otherwise you may just wind up getting baseballs rained onto your vehicle...(been there done that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 I agree. No one day screams outbreak. But I guess that depends on your definition of outbreak. I could see a localized outbreak possible if there were a few boundaries in play with extreme instability. But large scale tornado outbreak probably not. Definitely one of those weeks where nowcasting and current trends will be your friend and not necessarily hi res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 That final S/W with impressive mid/upr level flow will have a chance. As a reminder look at GFS runs from yesterday... Today they were not as good because of effects from convection... But we'll see how that evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Definitely agree. Boundary interactions will make a few great storms. Just not seeing anything screaming outbreak or anything. So you better pick a boundary and hope a storm that you get a storm on that boundary otherwise you may just wind up getting baseballs rained onto your vehicle...(been there done that) Too early to write any days off withe airmass in place. GFS and NAM exhibit differences for Monday, haven't looked at Tuesday onward yet. As for larger scale events, Thursday looks the part synoptically. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Here's a wide angle account of the first Leoti, KS area tornado that Ian and I chased today. The video is sped up to 4x to give a quick overview of the tornado, which was in progress from 7:06 to 7:07 p.m. CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Here's a wide angle account of the first Leoti, KS area tornado that Ian and I chased today. The video is sped up to 4x to give a quick overview of the tornado, which was in progress from 7:06 to 7:07 p.m. CDT. Pretty good video! This thing had amazing structure and a very large meso... Quite impressive actually. Wonder what was stopping it from producing more and just going nuts, it consistently had strong rotation for quite a while. My best guess would be low-level moisture being eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 06Z D1 SPCSWO... Take your pick essentially as far as chasing goes... Rather large 5% TOR probabilities extend from northern SD southward through W KS/NE and into W TX. ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT A FEW TORNADOES AREA ALSO POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN STATES...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TODAY...BUT A SECONDARY IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO WY BY MID DAY. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. ..NRN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THIS REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WITH CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /UP TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ POSSIBLE INTO THE DAKOTAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AND SWD WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ON DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY LLJ WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS EARLY IN THE DAY DUE TO NEWD-EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS FARTHER WEST WITHIN THE INITIATION ZONE FROM WRN NEB INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN HODOGRAPHS SIZE WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...AND A SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH THE CNTRL DAKOTAS BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING. ..CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WRN TX MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST ACROSS A PORTION OF NRN TX AND OK DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IS ADVECTING NWD ALONG SLY LLJ AND BENEATH EML PLUME. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK...WRN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL NEB. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER...MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST IN THIS REGION SUGGESTING STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO TREND TOWARD HP. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A WINDOW FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND HODOGRAPH SIZE INCREASES. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ON OR MORE CLUSTERS AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ..DIAL/ROGERS.. 05/22/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Most of this period continues to look like run of the mill days. Two days late week that continue to look like they might be a bit more though (Around Wed-Fri). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Most of this period continues to look like run of the mill days. Two days late week that continue to look like they might be a bit more though (Around Wed-Fri). Definitely. Currently however it's looking like a messy ejection, low level response is not what you'd like it to be per latest few gfs runs. Veer back rears its ugly head, and our boundary layer takes a hit early on. Plenty of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Just remember it only takes one big bad storm to turn that "run of the mill" label on its head. Each of these days besides maybe Wednesday has that type of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 A tornado watch is likely for the Texas Panhandle. Note: the SPC mesoanalysis (RAP) 6-hr forecast has up to 55 kt of effective shear in parts of the panhandle. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY 20-21Z.----- DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING. PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ALL HAZARDS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 A tornado watch is likely for the Texas Panhandle. Note: the SPC mesoanalysis (RAP) 6-hr forecast has up to 55 kt of effective shear in parts of the panhandle. A little odd that they went with the "tornado watch likely" wording given how terrible the 18z AMA sounding was with the wind profile. The wind field will likely improve throughout the afternoon/evening, but still... However, it does appear that winds are nicely backed on the eastern side of the panhandle, so the RAOB really does not represent the actual environment in the lowest 1 KM...Moisture is also very impressive for TX PH standards, with 63 to 71 Tds being shown in obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Pair of TOR watches out now. One for the TX/OK PH and SW KS, and another for W NE/S SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Severe-warned cell in N Nebraska getting its act together with a pretty clear inflow notch, thinking that may be tor-warned soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Severe-warned cell in N Nebraska getting its act together with a pretty clear inflow notch, thinking that may be tor-warned soon. yeah... Actually a couple nice looking supercells in that cluster. Both have rotation on them as well, kind of broad right now though. Hailcore on the southern end of that cluster is pretty impressive, 60dbz at 36KFT. Another supercell in northwestern Donley county TX in the PH is starting to get its act together as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 And there it is, tornado warning out however rotation is still fairly broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Tor reported near Howardwick, TX recently. Couplet SW of Memphis, TX as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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