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La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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Tim198

Tim198

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

It is a horrible disservice to a guy like Massielo if you twist him answering a tweet as " it could be one reason " as being his position .

 

He has obviously looked a several variables and came up with ... HAVING  A HARD TIME OF THINKING THE AO  WILL BE POSITIVE THIS WINTER  .

 

That is his forecast / opinion and whether it fits with yours don`t lie in here , your future posts will be dismissed out of hand . 

Do not distort the work of others in here  . 

I never said he was forecasting a positive AO this winter. Indeed, it sounds like he believes it will be negative. I was just responding to Snowman's post which was discussing reasons the NAO might be positive and wanted to add what Masiello said about how research suggests high geomagnetic activity favors a positive NAO/AO.

 

I personally believe the AO may average negative this winter but others factors will not allow for a cold winter.

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Dsnowx53 said:

I think Anthony said that he thinks the geomagnetic storms is the one thing that could make the AO positive, but otherwise the signs point to it being negative. I agree with him there.

He also said that until the Walker Cell restrengthens, Nina analogs shouldn't be used. And with the Siberian High, the Walker Cell should only grow weaker. We've been in a Nino pattern for a little while now, and that should last longer, which I think is interfering with the developing Nina. The SOI can certainly be volatile, but it's no coincidence that it's doing what it's doing right now.

I just read through it and yes he said that the geomagnetic storms and high geomagnetic activity going on can support positive NAO and positive AO. About a year ago I read a couple of studies that said this as well. That is just another reason on top of the ones I listed already today which supports a +NAO this winter

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Should be interesting but I'm favoring -PDO, -PNA, neutral EPO overall with more positive bouts than we have seen over the last several winters. As far as ENSO, weak modoki La Nina is pretty much a lock for this winter. I'll give my AO and NAO thoughts later next week but right now I think +NAO. Still looking at the AO and I don't think it's going too be as super negative come winter as some do right now

With all due respect, from what do you draw support for such confiedence?  Until recently (and especially given the Niña watch reissuance), I was on the fence about whether a Niña would play an appreciable role this winter, but have now faced the reality that the Niña is either nonexistent or so anemic that ENSO is not going to be a major driver this winter.  Moreover, it seems like if anything, the EPAC has undergone some cooling lately (as opposed to the Central/Modoki regions), no?

I guess my main question for you is: What would it take for you to hop off the modoki Niña train? 

Also, I don't post here often, but are you the member who stuck with the East-based Niño idea until the bitter end last winter?  (Not trying to knock you at all, BTW...no disrespect intended).

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

With all due respect, from what do you draw support for such confiedence?  Until recently (and especially given the Niña watch reissuance), I was on the fence about whether a Niña would play an appreciable role this winter, but have now faced the reality that the Niña is either nonexistent or so anemic that ENSO is not going to be a major driver this winter.  Moreover, it seems like if anything, the EPAC has undergone some cooling lately (as opposed to the Central/Modoki regions), no?

I guess my main question for you is: What would it take for you to hop off the modoki Niña train? 

Also, I don't post here often, but are you the member who stuck with the East-based Niño idea until the bitter end last winter?  (Not trying to knock you at all, BTW...no disrespect intended).

This has always been from the very start a modoki La Nina event and every model keeps it as a modoki event into this winter. OLR and precip patterns have been consistent with a central based Nina as has the ssta configuration. In fact it is classic. Region 1+2's, or any other region's daily changes are meaningless. It is consistent changes over weeks that really counts. Now I ask you, what makes you positive that ENSO will not be a driver this winter?

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Dsnowx53 said:

I think Anthony said that he thinks the geomagnetic storms is the one thing that could make the AO positive, but otherwise the signs point to it being negative. I agree with him there.

He also said that until the Walker Cell restrengthens, Nina analogs shouldn't be used. And with the Siberian High, the Walker Cell should only grow weaker. We've been in a Nino pattern for a little while now, and that should last longer, which I think is interfering with the developing Nina. The SOI can certainly be volatile, but it's no coincidence that it's doing what it's doing right now.

The solar activity has only been high in the last few days, more so 2-3 days ago...prior to that it had been virtually dead for months.  I think you need significant long term resurgence to have any major impact. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

the cold water south of Greenland is a big inhibitor to a -NAO.   Part of the reason a -NAO has been non existent for the most part the last 3 years

Its more of an issue when its between Greenland and Iceland.  Thats where it has been in the last few winters if I remember right.  This year its been more positioned to their south so far.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, uncle W said:

every time I hear about the solar effect on our weather I think of 1957-58 which was one of our great winters with some of the highest solar output on record...

I'm not sure if it has to do with if it occurs near the maximum or min.  Doing the math in my head quickly 57-58 should have come just after a maximum.  One would think major solar resurgence during a relative minimum wouldn't have a huge impact but we had some discussion a few years ago whether the atmosphere has a tendency to react relatively anyway.  So even if it's near a minimum, any kind of bump in activity causes the atmospheric response to be the same as if it occurred near a max, even if that activity would be nothing more than normal near the solar max

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

I like Allan's outlook. It's pretty much the same as what I've been thinking, especially WRT ENSO (MEI) analogs (1966-67, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1995-96). It's a good read for anyone who hasn't seen it. I really want to see how this next month shakes out exactly, but I'm in this camp ATTM.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2016-17Forecast.pdf 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Raleigh wx's four main analogs had snow on the ground Christmas morning in NYC...December 1966 and 1983 had some mild days early in the month...Some record warmth in places...I believe the only year without a mild beginning to December was 1995...1980 and 1983 are the two coldest Christmas days on record for NYC...

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dsnowx53 said:

Today's SOI: -32.88

30-day SOI: -2.91

90-day SOI: 4.94

The tank continues with this crazy Nino regime. Nina just can't take over. However, trade winds are supposed to pick up in the first week of November.

True about the trade winds. Region 3.4 is down to almost -1C despite the SOI. Lots of cold subsurface water there too

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Dsnowx53 said:

Today's SOI: -32.88

30-day SOI: -2.91

90-day SOI: 4.94

The tank continues with this crazy Nino regime. Nina just can't take over. However, trade winds are supposed to pick up in the first week of November.

Yeah I am a bit surprised how low the SOI has gone but the expanse of the cooling in the ENSO regions has increased over the last month. Certainly interesting to watch it unfold.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

the 1995 la nina reached its peak at -1.0 in the OND tri monthly period...then it started to fade slowly...DJF oni was -0.9 in 95-96...this years oni for ASO should be around -0.6...so is this la nina starting to level off or fail as we get into the DJF tri monthly period?...If the soi continues its negativity it could level off and become a weak negative winter?...there was a period of negative soi in October 1995...in December 1995 the soi was pretty low for a long time... 

1995 333 1009.84 1008.25   -8.23
1995 334 1009.12 1008.25  -12.76
1995 335 1009.17 1007.45  -10.36
1995 336 1008.72 1007.65  -13.73
1995 337 1007.61 1007.35  -17.95
1995 338 1008.39 1005.55   -4.58
1995 339 1010.86 1005.70    7.49
1995 340 1010.17 1005.95    2.62
1995 341 1009.51 1006.30   -2.63
1995 342 1008.86 1006.15   -5.23
1995 343 1008.02 1006.60  -11.91
1995 344 1008.50 1007.10  -12.04
1995 345 1009.01 1007.45  -11.20
1995 346 1009.15 1007.70  -11.78
1995 347 1009.11 1008.65  -16.91
1995 348 1010.46 1008.50   -9.12
1995 349 1009.62 1008.15  -11.65
1995 350 1008.20 1007.65  -16.45
1995 351 1006.94 1007.65  -23.01
1995 352 1005.72 1008.30  -32.67
1995 353 1002.62 1007.95  -46.95
1995 354 1003.40 1007.20  -39.03
1995 355 1006.94 1007.20  -20.67
1995 356 1009.35 1006.85   -6.33
1995 357 1010.84 1007.25   -0.69
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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

True about the trade winds. Region 3.4 is down to almost -1C despite the SOI. Lots of cold subsurface water there too

 

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I am a bit surprised how low the SOI has gone but the expanse of the cooling in the ENSO regions has increased over the last month. Certainly interesting to watch it unfold.

 

I'm honestly a bit puzzled at the disconnect going on. There seems to be a lot of cold subsurface water everywhere which you'd think would upwell given the increased trade winds coming in the next week or two, but I can't completely ignore this SOI. I do wonder how long it truly takes for the pressure gradient force to take over as a result from the SOI.

 

Perhaps the -SOI will make the surface flow go from west to east, but the trade winds will still increase above the surface? The hovmollers we look at occur at 850mb, so it's possible the surface flow and 850mb flow might not be in congruence. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

 

I'm honestly a bit puzzled at the disconnect going on. There seems to be a lot of cold subsurface water everywhere which you'd think would upwell given the increased trade winds coming in the next week or two, but I can't completely ignore this SOI. I do wonder how long it truly takes for the pressure gradient force to take over as a result from the SOI.

 

Perhaps the -SOI will make the surface flow go from west to east, but the trade winds will still increase above the surface? The hovmollers we look at occur at 850mb, so it's possible the surface flow and 850mb flow might not be in congruence. 

Interesting indeed. Region 3.4 is now over -1C, the coldest daily reading of this event, again in spite of the SOI. Meanwhile region 1+2 is warming and in the positive, so a very pronounced modoki La Niña signature continues

IMG_8262.PNG

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The winter forecasts that depend on a +PDO may want to reconsider, just saying...

IMG_8278.PNG

 

 

 

Yes, the SST's with respect to the global mean appear - to me - to indicate a near neutral PDO at this juncture. The persistent heightened angular momentum regime will likely cool the GOAK SST's further over the next couple weeks. We will enter meteorological winter with a near neutral PDO. Whether that returns more positive or trends negative will largely be contingent upon atmospheric-oceanic coupling and the progression of the ENSO event.

An interesting short-term trend is the warming SST's in the W IO. If that trend persists, we may see a greater congregation of upper divergence there this winter in addition to the interseasonal/lower frequency Nina related walker cell over the Indonesian region.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

Yes, the SST's with respect to the global mean appear - to me - to indicate a near neutral PDO at this juncture. The persistent heightened angular momentum regime will likely cool the GOAK SST's further over the next couple weeks. We will enter meteorological winter with a near neutral PDO. Whether that returns more positive or trends negative will largely be contingent upon atmospheric-oceanic coupling and the progression of the ENSO event.

An interesting short-term trend is the warming SST's in the W IO. If that trend persists, we may see a greater congregation of upper divergence there this winter in addition to the interseasonal/lower frequency Nina related walker cell over the Indonesian region.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

Agree. I think -PDO is very likely this winter myself. The strong -IOD has also been a big factor in the forcing over that region if you look at the OLR

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