La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[Dsnowx53]

3 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Well what interests me more is the dipole between the warm pool centered around 30˚N and then the cold pool around 45˚N, which seems shifted northward from those composites. Almost like the western/central Pacific is meridionally half +PDO/half -PDO but on an extreme level. Eastern Pacific is still definitely positive though, which is a bummer for me since I was looking for a busier winter out here (with maybe half a chance at a decent snowfall) and promise of a better severe season next year.

 

This is a good point about the northward displacement. I still do think the northward displacement isn't enough to say that area "cancels out" and a +PDO look "displaced" is still overall more +PDO than not, since the overall idea is still conveyed well, but I definitely see what you're saying. I think bluewave showed how this year is a +PDO look displaced northward with some H5 composites.

FWIW, we are going with a -PNA and SE ridge/canonical nina look in February, so I think your area can still do somewhat well. Granted I'm still learning the nuances of national forecasting so I might not be the best resource.

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

This is a good point about the northward displacement. I still do think the northward displacement isn't enough to say that area "cancels out" and a +PDO look "displaced" is still overall more +PDO than not, since the overall idea is still conveyed well, but I definitely see what you're saying. I think bluewave showed how this year is a +PDO look displaced northward with some H5 composites.

FWIW, we are going with a -PNA and SE ridge/canonical nina look in February, so I think your area can still do somewhat well. Granted I'm still learning the nuances of national forecasting so I might not be the best resource.

By February we would need nao help 

[Dsnowx53]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

By February we would need nao help 

 

Unfortunately we're not forecasting that. The PV being in a state of flux now combined with this latent heat release via a wave breaking event next week could help the NAO go negative in late November and December. Analogs support that. But we expect the PV to gain strength as the winter goes on, because of the placement of Nina anomalies, the fact that a weak PV early in winter can mean a stronger PV later in winter, and the +QBO. As a result, the NAO could go very positive in mid-January and on -- particularly in February.

Hopefully we're wrong. Seasonal forecasting isn't exactly easy. But I remain cautiously optimistic about late November through early to mid-January. Nothing blockbuster of course but we should have our chances at least.

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

Unfortunately we're not forecasting that. The PV being in a state of flux now combined with this latent heat release via a wave breaking event next week could help the NAO go negative in late November and December. Analogs support that. But we expect the PV to gain strength as the winter goes on, because of the placement of Nina anomalies, the fact that a weak PV early in winter can mean a stronger PV later in winter, and the +QBO. As a result, the NAO could go very positive in mid-January and on -- particularly in February.

Hopefully we're wrong. Seasonal forecasting isn't exactly easy. But I remain cautiously optimistic about late November through early to mid-January. Nothing blockbuster of course but we should have our chances at least.

So by February winter could be over is what that sounds like. Hopefully not and we get our chances at least through then

[Dsnowx53]

Left is +PDO. We definitely resemble that very well for the most part in the NPAC.

 

[EasternLI]

20 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

Unfortunately we're not forecasting that. The PV being in a state of flux now combined with this latent heat release via a wave breaking event next week could help the NAO go negative in late November and December. Analogs support that. But we expect the PV to gain strength as the winter goes on, because of the placement of Nina anomalies, the fact that a weak PV early in winter can mean a stronger PV later in winter, and the +QBO. As a result, the NAO could go very positive in mid-January and on -- particularly in February.

Hopefully we're wrong. Seasonal forecasting isn't exactly easy. But I remain cautiously optimistic about late November through early to mid-January. Nothing blockbuster of course but we should have our chances at least.

 

Today's Euro weeklies would agree with this.

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

 

Today's Euro weeklies would agree with this.

Funny,  we only hear about the weeklies or parallel ensembles when they flip warm. 

But when they do what they did tonight,  not a peep .

 

[PB GFI]

Only use the weeklies week 2 and 3 , after they flip every 4 days.

 

But that was a nice weenie run.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

Funny,  we only hear about the weeklies or parallel ensembles when they flip warm. 

But when they do what they did tonight,  not a peep .

 

The weeklies didn't really have a cold look at 500 until after week 2 in December tonight. That is when a -AO forms on this side of the globe, but as you stated it is beyond week 3 and could easily change, though I do actually agree with what it is showing for a colder middle to late December. Would follow 1983 pretty well actually.

[PB GFI]

23 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The weeklies didn't really have a cold look at 500 until after week 2 in December tonight. That is when a -AO forms on this side of the globe, but as you stated it is beyond week 3 and could easily change, though I do actually agree with what it is showing for a colder middle to late December. Would follow 1983 pretty well actually.

 

The "  better "  skill scores are found in the new euro weekly 46 day parallels and they are BN days 7 thru 21.

I don't look past week 3 regardless they just stink. 

We were very close to 82 / 83  here last year with 1 big city Blizzard.  Except last yrs 2M were 82 83 on steroids .

I like the 83 /84  analog here as well .

That Dec was frigid , I like that here too .

I am -3 here .

That winter quit early this year I like  December/ January then ova.

 

[Stebo]

Just now, PB GFI said:

 

The "  better "  skill scores are found in the new euro weekly 46 day parallels and they are BN days 4 thru 21.

I don't look past week 3 regardless. 

We were very close to 82 / 83  here last year with 1 big city Blizzard.  Except last yrs 2M were 82 83 on steroids .

I like the 83 /84  analog here as well .

That Dec was frigid , I like that here too .

I am -3 here .

That winter quit early this year I like  December/ January then ova.

 

I don't look at temperature composites after a week in, there is little skill there. It is much safer to look at the 500mb composites, you can get a better read of the pattern with respect to indices and blocking.

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I don't look at temperature composites after a week in, there is little skill there. It is much safer to look at the 500mb composites, you can get a better read of the pattern with respect to indices and blocking.

 

I agree , the parallels at 500  are pretty blocked up in the Atlantic with a -AO throughout.

Lil east based,  with a deep trough sitting underneath week 2 and 3 .

2M cold anomalies on any Euro product in N/A always catches my eye because I think the Euro is slightly biased warm at 2m.

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I agree , the parallels at 500  are pretty blocked up in the Atlantic with a -AO throughout.

Lil east based,  with a deep trough sitting underneath week 2 and 3 .

2M cold anomalies on any Euro product in N/A always catches my eye because I think the Euro is slightly biased warm at 2m.

Those temp anomalies on the weeklies on weatherbell are 850mb temp anomalies, not surface.

[PB GFI]

13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Those temp anomalies on the weeklies on weatherbell are 850mb temp anomalies, not surface.

 

No, you are looking at the original weeklies. 

Go to the 46 day ensembles,  those are the new weeklies 

Ryan says they skill score better 

Look at the 2 M anomalies .

Days 4 - 11 and 11 - 18 are BN 

Days 18 - 25 at 500 should be N to BN plus precip is AN right along the coast.

 

Again I can't post it but it's week 4 just run on the 10th  totally flipped at 500 just 4 days later .

useless after week 3 IMO.

 

[PB GFI]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

This 500 mb pattern the last few weeks really ramped the +PDO back up.

 

 

 

 

 

I have been reading in here that  a -PDO was a lock  , no ? 

 

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

No, you are looking at the original weeklies. 

Go to the 46 day ensembles,  those are the new weeklies 

Ryan says they skill score better 

Look at the 2 M anomalies .

 

I think I see what you are talking about but I also see only day 4-14 being below normal then above normal until day 39-46 which is in dart board land at that point.

[PB GFI]

Just now, Stebo said:

I think I see what you are talking about but I also see only day 4-14 being below normal then above normal until day 39-46 which is in dart board land at that point.

 

Definitely agree Stebo.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

Definitely agree Stebo.

If that is the case, that would go against the cold December that many are gunning for. Something to certainly monitor that is for sure.

[PB GFI]

On 11/14/2016 at 10:01 PM, Stebo said:

If that is the case, that would go against the cold December that many are gunning for. Something to certainly monitor that is for sure.

 

I am buying a cold December because I like the 83 analog. 

I think the speed of the PAC slows down because the jet could buckle as the wave lengths shorten.

I think the AO will be firmly NEG and the guidance is starting to block up the Atlantic.

The mid latitudes should respond colder .

I tnought  this would change around November 15 to a colder regime that would not erase the front anomalies. 

It will change around the 20 , but it's a 5 day miss from 15 days ago .

 

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I am buying a cold December because I like the 83 analog. 

I think the speed of the PAC slows down because the jet could buckle as the wave lengths shorten.

I think the AO will be firmly NEG and the guidance is starting to block up the Atlantic.

The mid latitudes should respond colder .

I tnought  this would change around November 15 to a colder regime that would not erase the front anomalies. 

It will change around the 20 , but it's a 5 day miss from 15 days ago .

If I blow December,  then I'm cooked. 

I was thinking of the 83-84 analog too. The problem with that winter is you still had the effects from the 82 El Chichon volcano's major eruption. That eruption pumped a ton of aerosols into the upper atmosphere, which messed up the world's weather patterns for years after. You're better off using non volcanic winters as the base for your analogs

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

I have been reading in here that  a -PDO was a lock  , no ? 

 

Very solid +PDO signature both at and below the surface. The more El Nino-like EPAC forcing and 500 mb pattern since October has resulted in

one if not the most rapid +PDO increases on record for this time of year. This is why I have been mentioning all along how significant

the lingering SST warmth was following the historic full basin warm event last few years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very solid +PDO signature both at and below the surface. The more El Nino-like EPAC forcing and 500 mb pattern since October has resulted in

one if not the most rapid +PDO increases on record for this time of year. This is why I have been mentioning all along how significant

the lingering SST warmth was following the historic full basin warm event last few years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know , good call . It was a bit of a friendly troll post aimed at the heat miser.

All in good fun.

The strength of that jet cut an ice patch clear across the PAC.

DAleo had a good piece yesterday on how when the seasonal jet strengthens you " may " see that jet off Asia buckle as it heads across. 

Shorter wavelengths are what's needed .

As I posted on yesterday,  take a look at the latest seasonal run of the CFS at 500 For Dec Jan Feb.

Its just an unreal flip. What does that tell us ? They are garage,  you can't go from Torch to Great in 3 days .

Ignore them,  I learned my lesson long ago .

I will take 15 days at a time and starting on the 20 th  the 15 days after advertise that a more important and.... expected  flip is coming.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I know , good call . It was a bit of a friendly troll post aimed at the heat miser.

All in good fun.

The strength of that jet cut an ice patch clear across the PAC.

DAleo had a good piece yesterday on how when the seasonal jet strengthens you " may " see that jet off Asia buckle as it heads across. 

Shorter wavelengths are what's needed .

As I posted on yesterday,  take a look at the latest seasonal run of the CFS at 500 For Dec Jan Feb.

Its just an unreal flip. What does that tell us ? They are garage,  you can't go from Torch to Great in 3 days .

Ignore them,  I learned my lesson long ago .

I will take 15 days at a time and starting on the 20 th  the 15 days after advertise that a more important and.... expected  flip is coming.

 

We need to see that persistent 45/140 low which has driven this pattern over the last month retrograde to the NW in coming weeks and months.

Not that I am a big fan of the the EPS weeklies recently, but they try to pull the vortex back to the Bering Sea during December.

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

We need to see that persistent 45/140 low which has driven this pattern over the last month retrograde to the NW in coming weeks and months.

Not that I am a big fan of the the EPS weeklies recently, but they try to pull the vortex back to the Bering Sea during December.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look out to week 2 and 3 and then IMO halt. 

Look at its week 4 to 3 flip from just 5 days ago .

Again it flipped  from a ridge  into deep trough in the east. 

They were so bad after week 4 last year , I just ignore .

I do think once it flips it could be a 2 weeks period of early winter in the east. 

I will wait amother 7 days before I look at the following 2 .

[PB GFI]

On 6/6/2016 at 11:20 AM, PB GFI said:

 

Like last year , It is prob a bit early but the CFS ( winter ) and European ( Nov )  have more of a basin wide look .

 

 

 

From June. 

The CFS may have been the first to it 

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

I know , good call . It was a bit of a friendly troll post aimed at the heat miser.

All in good fun.

The strength of that jet cut an ice patch clear across the PAC.

DAleo had a good piece yesterday on how when the seasonal jet strengthens you " may " see that jet off Asia buckle as it heads across. 

Shorter wavelengths are what's needed .

As I posted on yesterday,  take a look at the latest seasonal run of the CFS at 500 For Dec Jan Feb.

Its just an unreal flip. What does that tell us ? They are garage,  you can't go from Torch to Great in 3 days .

Ignore them,  I learned my lesson long ago .

I will take 15 days at a time and starting on the 20 th  the 15 days after advertise that a more important and.... expected  flip is coming.

Fact is the Pacific is not changing at all in the medium and long range. You still have an unrelenting firehose Pacific jet and a completely unfavorable setup for any sustained cold. The latest GFS and Euro agree. The polar vortex and arctic cold remain locked up where they have been, in Eurasia through the long range. Canada is in for quite the torchfest coming up

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Fact is the Pacific is not changing at all in the medium and long range. You still have an unrelenting firehose Pacific jet and a completely unfavorable setup for any sustained cold. The latest GFS and Euro agree. The polar vortex and arctic cold remain locked up where they have been, in Eurasia through the long range. Canada is in for quite the torchfest coming up

 

They don't agree at all .

I mean not even a little. GFS/EPS 

You're not looking at all of  the guidance,  you couldn't be .

That jet buckles by day 5 and the shorter wavelengths turn Alaska and W Canada cold. 

That 500 mb look is just fine in the medium then long range. 

The torch is OVA. The GEFS is BN and the EPS after dropping 1 to 2 feet from CPA into WNY Sunday,  just misses us to the S on day 9 .

Then days 11 thru 15 crosses all the energy  under the higher heights in Canada. 

Looks like 93/94 to me, but hey,  we splitting hairs. 

I know you were set on a - PDO for 6 months as you posted on that as much you posted on EAST based last year, let it go .

This is not last winter. 

 

Sorry man. 

[Stebo]

37 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

They don't agree at all .

I mean not even a little. GFS/EPS 

You're not looking at all of  the guidance,  you couldn't be .

That jet buckles by day 5 and the shorter wavelengths turn Alaska and W Canada cold. 

That 500 mb look is just fine in the medium then long range. 

The torch is OVA. The GEFS is BN and the EPS after dropping 1 to 2 feet from CPA into WNY Sunday,  just misses us to the S on day 9 .

Then days 11 thru 15 crosses all the energy  under the higher heights in Canada. 

Looks like 93/94 to me, but hey,  we splitting hairs. 

I know you were set on a - PDO for 6 months as you posted on that as much you posted on EAST based last year, let it go .

This is not last winter. 

 

Sorry man. 

He is talking about sustained cold, you are talking about a couple events in the near future. What he is saying about Canada being above normal is correct. Even if it is cooler down you way, there is no way of keeping things cool in the long run with the strong Pacific Jet flooding Canada with warmth. With the way the Pacific is set up right now with the strong gradient at 35N you will see a sustained strong jet until either the cold or warmth wins out.

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

He is talking about sustained cold, you are talking about a couple events in the near future. What he is saying about Canada being above normal is correct. Even if it is cooler down you way, there is no way of keeping things cool in the long run with the strong Pacific Jet flooding Canada with warmth. With the way the Pacific is set up right now with the strong gradient at 35N you will see a sustained strong jet until either the cold or warmth wins out.

Yes that's exactly what I meant and it's undeniable that the Pacific is not changing and is not going to change any time soon. We are not going into a sustained cold pattern, not even close. The polar vortex and arctic air are still locked in Siberia. DT actually agrees with us. Here is what he said today: 

[PB GFI]

48 minutes ago, Stebo said:

He is talking about sustained cold, you are talking about a couple events in the near future. What he is saying about Canada being above normal is correct. Even if it is cooler down you way, there is no way of keeping things cool in the long run with the strong Pacific Jet flooding Canada with warmth. With the way the Pacific is set up right now with the strong gradient at 35N you will see a sustained strong jet until either the cold or warmth wins out.

 

When was the last 90 day wire to wire cold 40 N ever had ? 

Strong jets do like to buckle , so as with most events here,  cold is going to be transient. 

I think that jet eventually buckles.

You are probably not sustaining that jet all winter. 

But there's so sustained warmth like last year. 

I don't look at 2 M anomalies in Manitoba , whats plus 2 SD there is BN with a good 500.

So Canada is warm for their standards,  not ours... check out the 2m temps by day 5 , 10 , 15.

The guidance continues to want to build the heights in the Arctic and a -AO is here.

I have worked with split flows before 93/94 and when I see the jet cutting underneath higher heights I get giddy for N of 80.

09/10 was a great winter here , it doesn't have to be frigid. Just cold enough. 

I think December is BN. I like what I am seeing.