ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This storm hugs the cost; bank on it. Climatology and the pattern supports this. Trends are just noise. No it doesn't. The block position and 50/50 position limits how far west it can get. OTS is the main issue here. I would want to be on LI for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 You will not get a few inches around NYC Anth if a lot of that . 4 on the Euro falls over 18 hours with the BL at 33/34 during the daytime in late March. Don't look at the snow maps . You need the heavier rates to cool that BL and .1 and .2 over 6 hours during the day will not add up to 3 in the city bud. The GGEM and UKIE are all I have left for my idea for the bigger totals N and W . The EPS went east . Never a good sign. Ukie is better for LI then inland. Heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Wow, although the EPS mean still looks good, albeit slightly East of 12z. The Euro busted terribly with the debocale two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 seems the gfs last night was on to something and is not such a bad model after all.. it's the euro that needs help.. how bad was it's performance on this storm... The storm hasn't happened yet lol... No model has any "performance" on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Wow what a turn of events this was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Wow what a turn of events this was You're in western LI. Not a bad position compared to being in PA or north of HPN. I would wait until the 12z and 0z cycles for our area before we can get an idea of the final model shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 You're in western LI. Not a bad position compared to being in PA or north of HPN. I would wait until the 12z and 0z cycles for our area before we can get an idea of the final model shifts. Yeah we're in a decent spot, hopefully it was just an over correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Yeah we're in a decent spot, hopefully it was just an over correction Or as Bernie Rayno would say, the windshield wiper effect. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Congrats coast once again. We inland folks get screwed again. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z NAVGEM is WAY OTS... Further east than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Congrats coast once again. We inland folks get screwed again. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Wouldn't get worked up till at least tonight's 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Wouldn't get worked up till at least tonight's 00zAgreed not over just yet but certainly not headed the direction we need right now. Biggest player IMO all along is the energy north of the GL around 48 hours. With the big storm solutions this was shown as diving SE into the trof, amplifying it more, drawing the slp closer to the coast, and triggering the LP to bomb out. All guidance has backed off of this idea and keeps the energy a separate entity which remains in Canada and actually acts as a kicker keeping everything more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 In all honesty, I'm more worried about dry slotting and having this come too far west, as everyone has reminded us all winter the western trend within 72hrs is real this year, I'm more worried of a GGEM type solution where far interior crushes Need not worry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Need the famous west trend today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just like it was a bit premature for myself and others to be declaring victory last night, it's too early to say that the further East solution is correct as well. We've seen these things make major shifts two or three days out just to ultimately end up where they started. My best educated guess at this point is that the ultimate track is from about 75-100 miles East of ACY to just inside the BM, and that the secondary area of convection to the SE is causing havoc, and likely bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Eps for 30 mins Why would anyone be nervous when the GGEM, its ensembles, the UKMET, and the EPS are in such agreement? That's an awesome look on the EPS. The vast majority of the members are west of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 As of now looks like a nuisance event with zero accumlation in the city and NW getting more on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 No big shifts on the 09z SREF. Still a lot of members just South of LI on Sunday and then over SNE on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 No big shifts on the 09z SREF. Still a lot of members just South of LI on Sunday and then over SNE on Sunday night. Hope Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Well the SREF mean is drier overall, despite the MSLP not shifting all that much. What that tells me is that a lot of members are probably weak, not necessarily OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Why would anyone be nervous when the GGEM, its ensembles, the UKMET, and the EPS are in such agreement? That's an awesome look on the EPS. The vast majority of the members are west of the mean. Because they're in agreement until they're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 JB now thinks this will be a I-95 snowstorm since the models have shifted east. He thinks the models will go back west. Euro control shifted the best snowfall towards the coast now. Lets hope for a shift back to the west today so everyone can cash in. Right now this looks like a minor to moderate event ( that's if the Ukie, GGEM and Euro are right ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 FWIW, I believe the 06z RGEM would have come close to the coast, because that initial convection which seems to be throwing everything off is way up near 40N while the main SLP is organizing near OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I posted DT's map in banter. I think we're doomed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam? One heck of a N VA, DC, DELMARVA snowstorm, nothing north of Philly so far at least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The ULL over the mid-west is opening up quicker this run so it's probably going to allow for a stronger SLP further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam is further west than the 6z but no big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 One heck of a N VA, DC, DELMARVA snowstorm, nothing north of Philly so far at least.... That's from the ULL. Been well modeled. The storm is developing post hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam is further west than the 6z but no big storm I'm only out to 18z Sunday and the storm is just developing near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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