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Winter Storm March 1st-2nd (Part 2)


Powerball

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For my call I guess I'll go with around 2" of snow, preceded by a bit of freezing rain/sleet.  Even with the super tight gradient and all that, SREF mean somehow was almost dead on with last week's storm here and the 15z mean has about 2".  If mixed precip doesn't pan out and/or deformation zone precip is more robust, may be able to overachieve. 

Wow really? That'd be around my call. Maybe im too pessimistic. 

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18z NAM shows about 0.40" liquid in Chicago over the next 36 hours, and about 0.55" liquid in the N suburbs. 

 

If this were all snow, it would be a decent hit.  Dewpoints crash after the front comes through...which should help in evap cooling.  Of course, the dry air could also eat into precip totals...but I'm assuming the 18z NAM has already taken this into account.

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... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through

Wednesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Winter Storm

Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through

Wednesday morning.

* Locations... portions of the Niagara Frontier east to Monroe

County.

* Timing... from early Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday

morning... . with the period of heaviest snow expect overnight

Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

* Hazards... heavy snow and freezing rain.

* Accumulations... snow potentially accumulating 5 to 10 inches.

Ice potentially accumulating up to one tenth of an inch.

Snowfall rates could reach an inch per hour Tuesday night into

early Wednesday morning.

* Winds... northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Visibilities... as low as a quarter mile at times.

* Impacts... heavy snow and some ice accumulations will make

travel difficult. The heaviest snow is expected to fall

overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... which

could make for difficult travel during the Wednesday morning

commute.

* Forecaster confidence... confidence is highest for significant

snow accumulations northwest of a line from Buffalo to

Rochester... where precipitation should fall as all snow.

Confidence is medium for locations southeast of this line where

there is greater uncertainty where the transition line to

sleet... freezing rain... and rain will evolve.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means that heavy snow and/or ice

accumulations are possible. If you are within the watch area...

remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of

weather information for the latest updates. Additional details

can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo.

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No I did not.

Fixed. Well we have a comparison on the same page.  :)

You got your wish Homedis.

 

 

Can't tell if that's lake influence in Lake and northern Cook on the 18Z or if it's a defo feature that looks to really peak snowfall totals in Ottawa/Allegan Counties in Michigan.

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naso much worried about 2M temps but WAA at 850 is already ramping up nicely over IA, MO, and W. IL which should be enough to hold the fgen band north of IL..which is probably why hi-res models are so far north

 

 

Yeah, what's happening aloft is obviously the main concern...really need a southward trend with the 850 mb setup. 

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